Mount Pleasant insurance agent and former Upshur Co. Comm. Cole Hefner nearly won a five-way primary for the seat being vacated by Rep. Bryan Hughes (R-Mineola). Hefner, who received 46% of the vote, faces former Lindale ISD trustee Jay Misenheimer, who received 27% of the vote.
Hefner won five of the district’s six counties. But for Smith Co., Hefner would have won without a runoff. He received a majority vote in Camp (77%) and Titus (65%) Cos. and nearly received a majority vote in Morris (49%), Rains (46%) and Wood (47%) Cos. The portion of Smith Co. in HD5 comprised 34% of the total votes cast, and Hefner received 31% there, more than a thousand votes behind Misenheimer (42%).
More than half of Misenheimer’s votes came from Smith Co. In the rest of the district, Misenheimer received just 19% of the vote. He finished second in three counties, third in Morris Co. and fourth in Rains Co.
Hefner had a narrow edge in total campaign contributions as of the 8-day-out reports. Misenheimer received almost $25K in contributions right before the primary, which erased Hefner’s overall financial lead. As of the 8-day-out reports, Hefner had the advantage in contributions raised from district zip codes, $46K to $19K, and has a nearly 2-to-1 advantage in district residents giving him $1K or less (89 to 46).
Cole Hefner
Campaign Finance Summary
$20,579 – Cash on Hand
$27,477 – Contributions (1/22-2/20)
$63,378 – Expenditures (1/22-2/20)
$104,199 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$91,902 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)
$10,000 – Loan Principal
Geographic Sources of Contributions
$23,142 – Austin (22%)
$23,090 – Pittsburg (22%)
$17,545 – Mount Pleasant (17%)
$9,000 – Houton (9%)
$6,100 – Dallas (6%)
$24,356 – Rest of Texas (24%)
$100 – Outside Texas (<1%)
District Zip Codes
$45,994 – District Zip Codes (45%)
$430 – Average Contribution
89 donors in district zip codes giving $1K or less
$57,338 – Outside District (55%)
Top Contributors
$15,000 – Empower Texans PAC
$12,000 – Bo Pilgrim
$9,500 – Bill Priefert
$5,832 – Constituents Focus PAC
$5,000 – Monty Bennett, Mayes Middleton, Texas Homeschool Coalition PAC
$2,500 – Lisa Black, Lisa Hefner, Stacy Hock, Michael Minadeo, Dick Saulsbury
$2,246 – NE Tarrant Tea Party PAC
$2,000 – Mike Cavender, Rex Gore
Jay Misenheimer
Campaign Finance Summary
$78,718 – Cash on Hand
$24,377 – Contributions (1/22-2/20)
$54,309 – Expenditures (1/22-2/20)
$89,167 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$84,383 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)
$75,000 – Loan Principal
Geographic Sources of Contributions
$30,627 – Austin (34%)
$20,350 – Tyler (23%)
$6,000 – Lindale (7%)
$6,000 – Longview (7%)
$6,000 – Texarkana (7%)
$20,390 – Rest of Texas (23%)
$0 – Outside Texas (0%)
District Zip Codes
$19,240 – District Zip Codes (22%)
$363 – Average Contribution
46 donors in district zip codes giving $1K or less
$70,127 – Outside District (78%)
Top Contributors
$7,000 – Blackridge
$5,027 – Texas Parent PAC
$2,500 – Lawrence Anderson, Assoc. of Texas Professional Educators PAC, Charles Butt, Gilbert Gibb, Sonja & Bob Hubbard, Ruben & Sue Martin III, Texas Food & Fuel Assoc. PAC, Texas Hospital Assoc. HOSPAC
$2,000 – Tyson & Anne Abston
Most of the state’s leading movement conservative groups and their leaders have endorsed Hefner. His top contributors include several conservative PACs, such as Empower Texans PAC ($15K) and the Texas Homeschool Coalition PAC ($5K), and several of these PACs’ largest donors. Comptroller Glenn Hegar, Sen. Charles Perry (R-Lubbock) and at least four legislators who voted against Speaker Joe Straus have endorsed Hefner. Several local officials, including several sheriffs and county commissioners have also endorsed Hefner, according to his web site.
Misenheimer has the support of several public education-related groups and the Texas Parent PAC. His web site does not list his endorsements.
Since 1996, just five House candidates have overcome a double-digit deficit from a primary to win the runoff, and none of them were more than 15 points behind the first-place finisher. Misenheimer finished 19 points behind Hefner in the primary.
Double-digit Primary Runoff Comebacks Since 1996
2012 – Drew Springer overcame 14-point deficit (35%-49%) to win runoff, 56%-44%
2006 – Borris Miles overcame 15-point deficit (33%-48%) to win runoff, 54%-46%
2004 – Rob Orr overcame 10-point deficit (32%-42%) to win runoff, 60%-40%
2002 – Eddie Rodriguez overcame 15-point deficit (23%-38%) to win runoff, 51%-49%
2000 – Trey Martinez Fischer overcame 11-point deficit (31%-42%) to win runoff, 60%-40%
If there is a model for Misenheimer to follow, it would be Rep. Drew Springer’s (R-Muenster) 2012 runoff against Trent McKnight for the open HD68 seat. McKnight won 21 of the district’s 22 counties in the primary and narrowly missed winning the race outright. Springer won his home Cooke Co. with 58% of the vote but received just 26% in the rest of the district. In the runoff, Springer again won Cooke Co. (83%) and also won three others en route to a 56%-44% victory. Springer improved his vote percentage in every county, even in places where he lost badly. For example, in Throckmorton Co., Springer received 5% of the vote in the primary (39 votes) and improved to 10% in the runoff (81 votes).
Of course, Springer had the backing of movement conservative groups such as Empower Texans, which did not endorse in the primary, and the endorsements of both of the candidates who failed to make the runoff (Misenheimer has been endorsed by Philip Hayes for the HD5 runoff.).
Misenheimer lacks those conservative groups’ support, which makes his uphill climb that much harder.
