Former Frisco Mayor John Keating faces Heath council member Justin Holland in the runoff to succeed retiring Rep. Scott Turner (R-Frisco). Keating received 38% of the vote while Holland received 33%. Heath Mayor Lorne Liechty finished third with 29% and has endorsed Holland.
Sickle-shaped HD33 includes a portion of Collin Co. and all of Rockwall Co. Beginning in Frisco on the west side of Collin Co., the district traces the county border to the north, then all the way to the east, then to the south all the way to Rockwall Co. Nearly 55% of the votes cast in the 2016 primary came from Rockwall Co., but Rockwall Co. has comprised a higher proportion of voters in the 2012 (66%) and 2014 (68%) Republican runoffs.
If this voting pattern holds, it should give Holland an edge. Keating received 60% of the vote in Collin Co. but just 22% in Rockwall Co., where locals Holland (41%) and Liechty (37%) split the vast majority of votes.
Keating received 63% of the vote from his home town of Frisco. Holland (40%) and Liechty (46%) combined to receive 86% of the vote from their home town of Heath.
John Keating
Campaign Finance Summary
$116,336 – Cash on Hand
$61,550 – Contributions (1/22-2/20)
$124,150 – Expenditures (1/22-2/20)
$156,258 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$179,404 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)
$158,332 – Loan Principal
Geographic Sources of Contributions
$92,402 – Austin (59%)
$16,575 – Plano (11%)
$14,860 – Dallas (10%)
$5,500 – Houton (4%)
$5,500 – Royse City (4%)
$20,436 – Rest of Texas (13%)
$975 – Outside Texas (<1%)
District Zip Codes
$105,010 – District Zip Codes (67%)
$1,180 – Average Contribution from District
74 donors in district zip codes giving $1K or less
$51,238 – Outside District (33%)
Top Contributors
$30,000 – Tony Ewing
$20,000 – Rep. Scott Turner
$15,000 – James Webb
$5,000 – Ted Groesbeck, Grady Hobbs, Dean Kennedy, Mayes Middleton
$3,500 – Rex Glendenning, Richard Roder
$2,500 – Ken Kim, Tony Ruggeri, Richard Strauss, Jake Wagner, John Wagner
$2,240 – NE Tarrant Tea Party PAC
Justin Holland
Campaign Finance Summary
$306,760 – Cash on Hand
$83,534 – Contributions (1/22-2/20)
$39,523 – Expenditures (1/22-2/20)
$309,971 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$191,040 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)
$10,000 – Loan Principal
Geographic Sources of Contributions
$98,935 – Austin (32%)
$69,757 – Rockwall (23%)
$64,316 – Heath (21%)
$30,825 – Dallas (10%)
$28,100 – Amarillo (9%)
$14,617 – Rest of Texas (5%)
$210 – Outside Texas (<1%)
District Zip Codes
$138,572 – District Zip Codes (45%)
$778 – Average Contribution from District
105 donors in district zip codes giving $1K or less
$168,189 – Outside District (55%)
Top Contributors
$82,985 – Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC
$25,855 – Constantine Antos
$16,000 – James Hicks
$13,060 – Saundra Holland
$11,000 – Lary Knowlton
$7,500 – Larry Farley
$6,600 – Ross Redden
$5,250 – Brian Berry
$5,000 – Josh Abbott, Jimmie Dale, Rod Holland, Steve Wright
$4,000 – AGC Texas Building Branch PAC
$3,900 – Texas State Farm Agents PAC
$3,750 – Tony Austin
$3,436 – Kim Timpa
$3,332 – Candace Golden
$3,000 – Billy Self. Gordon Vanamburgh
$2,500 – Dan Bobst, Emily Colbert, Sami Ebrahim, Reid Johnson, David Lane
$2,250 – Jonathan Quinby
Holland had slight advantages over Keating in contributions from district zip codes ($139K to $105K) and number of district donors giving $1K or less (105 to 74). A greater proportion of Keating’s contributions came from the district (67%) than Holland’s (45%).
The runoff has the potential to become another fight between an “establishment” candidate and a candidate backed by anti-Speaker Straus conservative groups. Holland has received endorsements from “establishment” groups such as the Texas Assoc. of Business and the Texas Assoc. of Realtors (Holland’s largest contributor). Keating received the endorsements of movement conservative groups such as Empower Texans and Texas Right to Life, but, at least as of February 20, not their financial support.
Keating’s Key Endorsements
Cathie Adams
Collin Co. Conservative Republicans
Collin Co. Comm. Susan Fletcher
Conservative Republicans of Texas
Sen. Bob Hall (R-Edgewood)
Collin Co. Comm. Chris Hill
Rep. Jeff Leach (R-Plano)
Lorie Medina, Frisco Tea Party founder
Rep. Scott Sanford (R-McKinney)
Rep. Matt Shaheen (R-Plano)
Collin Co. Judge Keith Self
Texans for Fiscal Responsibility/Empower Texans
Texas Home School Coalition PAC
Texas Right To Life
Texas Values Action
Rep. Scott Turner (R-Frisco)
Collin Co. District Attorney Greg Willis
Young Conservatives of Texas
Holland’s Key Endorsements
AGC Texas Building Branch PAC
Rockwall Co. Comm. Dennis Bailey
Rockwall Co. Sheriff Harold Eavenson
Rockwall Co. Comm. Lee Gilbert
Heath Mayor Lorne Liechty
Royse City Mayor Janet Nicol
Rockwall ISD Trustee Leigh Plagens
Rep. Four Price (R-Amarillo)
Rockwall Police Officers Assoc.
Rockwall Professional Firefighters Assoc.
Rockwall Co. Comm. Cliff Sevier
Rockwall Co. Judge David Sweet
Texas Assoc. of Business BACPAC
Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC
Texas Oil & Gas Assoc. PAC
Rockwall ISD Trustee Jim White
Keating may need significant contributions from anti-Straus groups and their largest donors to narrow the fundraising gap with Holland.
The district is inclined to support the more conservative candidate, all else being equal. HD33 voters overwhelmingly preferred Dan Patrick to David Dewhurst, 65%-35%, in the 2014 runoff for LTGOV. The district was carried by every Tea Party-backed statewide candidate, including Wayne Christian, who received 55% of the vote there. Ted Cruz received 62% of the vote in the 2012 runoff for U.S. Senate against Dewhurst.
Keating is hoping to repeat Turner’s 2012 primary performance, when he defeated Rockwall attorney (and current Rockwall Mayor) Jim Pruitt, 58%-42%. Turner received 76% of the vote in Collin Co. and nearly won Rockwall Co., taking 48% of the vote there. In that race, Turner out-raised Pruitt, $189K to $43K, and narrowly out-spent Pruitt, $129K to $117K.
Once again, Rockwall Co. voters will decide if geography is more important than choosing the “most conservative” candidate. Both candidates’ local endorsements are heavy with their home county’s elected officials and activists and very light on endorsers from the other county.
Neither county has a local runoff that could significantly boost turnout, so Keating must turn out Frisco and Collin Co. voters at a higher pace than in recent runoffs. Otherwise, his conservative credentials – with or without their financial backing – may not be enough to overcome Holland’s apparent geographic advantage.
