Liberty attorney Keith Strahan (28%) and Shepherd agribusinessman Ernest Bailes (26%) emerged from the six-person field to succeed retiring Rep. John Otto (R-Dayton). Both candidates wear the conservative mantel, but the runoff is shaping up as another clash between anti-Speaker Straus forces versus business associations.

Strahan has the backing of movement conservative groups and their donors, while Bailes has been endorsed by “establishment” groups such as the Texas Assoc. of Business, Texas Farm Bureau and Texas Oil & Gas Assoc.

Keith Strahan’s Key Endorsements

Cathie Adams
Conservative Republicans of Texas
Texans for Fiscal Responsibility/Empower Texans
Texas Patriots PAC
Texas Right to Life
Texas Values Action
Young Conservatives of Texas

Ernest Bailes’ Key Endorsements

Texas Agricultural Cooperative Council
Texas Assoc. of Business BACPAC
Texas Assoc. of Dairymen PAC
Texas Cattle Feeders Assoc. BEEF-PAC
Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND

Liberty Co. represented 48% of the primary vote, and neither candidate finished first there. Liberty Co. Attorney Wes Hinch, who had the backing of Otto, received 36% of the vote in his home county. Strahan, also from Liberty Co., received 32%, and Bailes was third with 19%.

Bailes won San Jacinto Co., his home county, outright with 51% of the vote. Strahan was a distance second there with 21%. San Jacinto Co. is the smallest of the three in terms of share of primary vote. Just 18% of votes cast in the primary came from San Jacinto Co.

Strahan finished first in Walker Co. with 27%, and Bailes finished second with 23%, despite the presence of the former Huntsville mayor and a second candidate from the county on the ballot. Walker Co. comprised 34% of the HD18 primary vote.

Bailes raised ($168K) and spent ($196K) the most of any candidate, and Strahan was second with $98K raised and $127K spent. The rest of the field combined raised $104K and spent $163K.

Keith Strahan

Keith Strahan

Campaign Finance Summary

$11,491 – Cash on Hand

$44,724 – Contributions (1/22-2/20)
$44,779 – Expenditures (1/22-2/20)

$97,645 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$127,070 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)

$28,203 – Loan Principal

Geographic Sources of Contributions

$38,549 – Austin (40%)
$10,406 – Houston (11%)
$8,000 – Dallas (8%)
$7,643 – Midland (8%)
$5,000 – Bedford (5%)
$4,110 – Cleveland (4%)

$23,517 – Rest of Texas (24%)

$254 – Outside Texas (<1%)

District Zip Codes

$9,228 – District Zip Codes (9%)
$144 – Average Contribution from District
44 donors in district zip codes giving $1K or less

$88,251 – Outside District (91%)

Top Contributors

$30,092 – Constituents Focus PAC

$15,000 – Empower Texans PAC

$8,000 – Monty Bennett

$5,000 – Rep. Jonathan Stickland

$4,500 – Mayes Middleton

$3,000 – Robert Findley

$2,500 – Dick Saulsbury

$2,240 – NE Tarrant Tea Party PAC

$2,000 – Stacy Hock, Texas Home School Coalition PAC

Ernest Bailes

Ernest Bailes

Campaign Finance Summary

$30,482 – Cash on Hand

$18,250 – Contributions (1/22-2/20)
$52,830 – Expenditures (1/22-2/20)

$168,254 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$195,503 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)

$70,000 – Loan Principal

Geographic Sources of Contributions

$37,455 – Cleveland (22%)
$22,235 – Shepherd (13%)
$20,290 – Waco (12%)
$20,075 – Coldspring (12%)
$13,350 – Conroe (8%)
$12,800 – Austin (8%)

$42,049 – Rest of Texas (25%)

$0 – Outside Texas (0%)

District Zip Codes

$92,464 – District Zip Codes (55%)
$574 – Average Contribution from District
123 donors in district zip codes giving $1K or less

$75,790 – Outside District (45%)

Top Contributors

$20,000 – Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND

$10,000 – Texas Deer Assoc. PAC

$8,500 – Alfred Anderson

$8,300 – Winston Sizemore

$8,050 – Joey Rollins

$5,000 – Clay Jones, Henry Patterson

$3,900 – Landry Robison

$3,450 – Bear Baxter

$2,845 – Tom Johnson

Bailes collected 55% of this contributions from district donors, while Strahan has received less than 10% of his contributions from the district. Nearly three quarters of Strahan’s contributions have come from movement conservative groups, related PACs and their largest donors.

Liberty Co. voters have multiple county office runoffs to decide. The race to replace Hinch as county attorney has gone to a runoff, as have both county commissioner precincts (1 and 3) and an open constable precinct (1). In San Jacincto Co., voters will decide the Republican nominee for a county commissioner precinct (3). Walker Co. has two county commissioner precincts (1 and 3) and one constable precinct (2) in Republican runoffs.

Strahan has several advantages leading to the runoff. Conservative groups have endorsed him and given significant financial support. He hails from the district’s largest county, while his opponent lives in the smallest county. He finished ahead of his rival in the county that neither of them call home. There are as many county office runoffs in Liberty Co., where Strahan should fare the best, as in the other two counties combined.

Bailes’ key advantage is his stronger local support, at least in terms of contributions. He has out-raised Strahan from district zip codes, $92K to $9K, and has nearly three times as many district residents giving him $1K or less.

HD18 is not a guaranteed win for a Tea Party-backed candidate, even in runoffs. While all three counties favored Dan Patrick over Lt. Gov. Dewhurst and Ken Paxton over Dan Branch in their respective 2014 Republican runoffs, they also all favored Tommy Merritt over Sid Miller, 62%-38%, and Ryan Sitton over Wayne Christian, 56%-44%. Those latter results reversed the primary, when Miller led Merritt, 56%-44% head-to-head, and Christian finished ahead of Sitton in all three counties.

A very strong showing in San Jacinto Co. – particularly if turnout drops less than in the other two counties – and remaining competitive in Liberty and Walker Cos. could provide Bailes with a path to victory.