Rep. John Raney (R-College Station) is facing his toughest challenge since winning a special runoff election, 58%-42%, in 2011. He easily dispatched his 2012 primary opponent, 81%-19%, and was unopposed in 2014. This year, he faces conservative activist and former College Station council member Jess Fields, who has the backing of movement conservative groups and their allies.

Fields was a Texas A&M student when he narrowly won a seat on the city council in 2010. He did not seek re-election in 2013 after being the lone dissenting vote on a number of city issues. “I have never really had a majority of people on council who have felt the same way and who have been as conservative as I am,” Fields told the Bryan College-Station Eagle in 2013. “I feel like I’ve done about as much as I could do.” [] Now Fields has his sights set on the Capitol, and his target is a two-term incumbent for whom conservative groups have shown little enthusiasm. Raney has a lifetime score of “F” on Empower Texans’ scorecard. He scored an 84 on Texas Right to Life’s scorecard in 2015 after receiving a 96 in 2013.

The incumbent has a better than $60K edge in cash on hand, as of January 21, but Fields has been competitive in fundraising and out-raised Raney, $30K-$9K, during the first three weeks of 2016. Among district residents, Raney has out-raised Fields, $59K-$34K, but Fields has a huge advantage in the number of small donors from the district. Fields has received contributions of $1K or less from nearly 500 district residents (average donation: $62), one of the highest such totals we recall seeing. Raney has received $1K or less from just over 100 district residents (average donation: $501).

Rep. John Raney

hd14_raney

Campaign Finance Summary

$170,174 – Cash on Hand

$9,131 – Contributions (1/1-1/21)
$30,521 – Expenditures (1/1-1/21)

$185,597 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$117,621 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)

$0 – Loan Principal

Geographic Sources of Contributions

$73,840 – Austin (41%)
$34,885 – College Station (19%)
$29,208 – Bryan (16%)
$7,000 – San Antonio (4%)
$5,350 – Houston (3%)

$20,399 – Other Texas cities (11%)
$11,500 – Outside Texas (6%)

Type of Contributor

$90,493 – Individuals (50%)
$91,690 – PACs and other entities (50%)

$177,633 – Cash (98%)
$4,550 – In Kind (2%)

District Zip Codes

$59,093 – Donors in district zip codes (32%)
$123,090 – Donors outside district (68%)

101 donors within district giving $1K or less

Top Contributors

$10,047 – Blackridge

$5,000 – Donald Adams, Phil Adams, Charles Butt, Randy French, Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC. Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC

$4,000 – AGC Texas Building Branch PAC, Allen Boone Humphries Robinson LLP

$3,500 – Thomas Williams

$2,650 – Jon Acklam

$2,500 – A&M PAC, Farmers Employee and Agent PAC, Robert Johnson, Mark Kristen, Texas Assoc. for Home Care and Hospice PAC, Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND, Texas Friends of Time Warner Cable PAC, Union Pacific Corp. PAC

$2,000 – Associated General Contractors of Texas PAC, Michael Beal, Tim Bryan, Glazers of Texas PAC, Independent Bankers of Texas PAC, Texas Hospital Assoc. HOSPAC, USAA Employee PAC

Jess Fields

hd14_fields

Campaign Finance Summary

$109,246 – Cash on Hand

$30,126 – Contributions (1/1-1/21)
$29,225 – Expenditures (1/1-1/21)

$164,397 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$59,709 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)

$0 – Loan Principal

Geographic Sources of Contributions

$26,083 – Austin (16%)
$21,772 – Midland (13%)
$18,770 – Kingwood (11%)
$18,075 – College Station (11%)
$16,043 – Bryan (10%)
$13,145 – Houston (8%)

$49,159 – Other Texas cities (30%)
$1,350 – Outside Texas (<1%)

Type of Contributor

$125,196 – Individuals (76%)
$39,201 – PACs and other entities (24%)

$159,212 – Cash (97%)
$5,185 – In Kind (3%)

District Zip Codes

$34,323 – Donors in district zip codes (21%)
$130,073 – Donors outside district (79%)

493 donors within district giving $1K or less

Top Contributors

$15,522 – Constituent Focus PAC

$15,000 – Empower Texans PAC

$10,000 – Jess Fields Sr.

$5,000 – Monty Bennett, Stacy Hock, Mike Killion, Mayes Middleton, Texas Home School Coalition PAC

$4,500 – Dick Saulsbury

$4,000 – Mike Olcott

$2,500 – Tim Dunn, Jack Fields, Windi Grimes, Bruce & Rosemary Ward

$2,300 – Frank Bantle

$2,240 – NE Tarrant Tea Party PAC

$2,225 – Don Ball

$2,000 – Rex Gore, Sen. Don Huffines

One of the most important factors we see when challengers upset incumbents is their ability to harness local contributors. Fields has done this about as well as anyone during the last couple of election cycles. In this race, Fields has a net advantage of 400 donors (not including spouses), which could translate into a race-tipping advantage on Election Day.

A total of 9,250 people voted in the 2012 Republican primary in HD12. Assuming a similar turnout in 2016, Fields enters the election with a 4.3% advantage, assuming all of the candidates’ local donors vote, over the incumbent.

Raney’s web site lists a number of endorsements from statewide groups and associations. It lists only one local organization, the College Station Professional Firefighters Assoc., and no local elected officials (College Station council member James Benham announced his endorsement on his web site.). One would expect a more public show of support, especially given Fields’ penchant for being the lone opposing voice on the city council.

The Fields campaign announced that 21 precinct chairs and five local party committee chairs have endorsed him as of January 26. The current Brazos Co. Republican Party chair was Fields’ campaign treasurer during his run for city council. He has been endorsed by two out-of-town senators – Sens. Konni Burton (R-Fort Worth) and Don Huffines (R-Dallas) – and several statewide conservative groups including Texans for Fiscal Responsibility/Empower Texans, the Texas Home School Coalition, and Texas Right to Life.

There is not much relevant electoral history to guide analysis of this race. In the 2014 primary race for LTGOV, HD14 voters gave Dan Patrick a narrow plurality with 30%, about 200 votes ahead of the incumbent David Dewhurst (27%). Todd Staples came in third at 24% and Jerry Patterson finished fourth at 19%. Turnout dropped by 54% in the runoff, which Patrick won, 65%-35%. A runoff would have favored Fields, but there will not be a runoff here.

Indeed, we expect turnout to be significantly higher because of the unsettled Republican presidential nomination. As with other races pitting “the establishment” against a movement conservative, it is unclear exactly who this additional turnout helps. Conventional wisdom says increased turnout will make the electorate more moderate. However, to the extent this increased turnout votes for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz or Donald Trump, it may be more favorable to a more conservative candidate.

We also note that groups such as Empower Texans have invested less in this race than in others, so far. If they increase their support for Fields, and he continues to receive small contributions from district residents, then Fields has a good chance to defeat the two-term incumbent.