HD114: Villalba Faces Conservative Challenger

Rep. Jason Villalba (R-Dallas) was unopposed in 2014 after defeating former HD107 Rep. Bill Keffer (R-Dallas) in a 2012 primary runoff, 52%-48%. Movement conservative groups have criticized Villalba, who has a career rating of “F” on Empower Texans’ scorecards, but have not yet mustered a true Tea Party challenger.

Dallas attorney Dan Morenoff announced in September that he would challenge Villalba. He describes himself as “an unhyphenated, full-spectrum conservative” who will support “the kind of conservative reforms that will make Texas more Texas.” Since moving to Dallas in 2001, Morenoff has led the local chapters of the Federalist Sociey and the Republican Jewish Coalition, and he is the executive director of the Equal Voting Rights Institute, a public-interest law firm that “seeks to restore and protect” the right to vote. Incidentally, the institute’s board of directors include Rep. Matt Rinaldi (R-Irving).

Movement conservative groups and their top donors have not, as of January 21, provided the kind of backing to Morenoff that other challengers have received. Several donors have given Morenoff less than $1K while giving thousands to other individual challengers. Empower Texans PAC is Morenoff’s largest donor, but it has invested just $17K so far. All told, conservative groups opposed to Speaker Joe Straus (R-San Antonio) and their largest donors have given Morenoff around $36K, a little less than half of his total contributions to date.

Villalba has raised almost as much from district zip codes ($75.4K) as Morenoff has raised ($75.8K). The incumbent had about a $30K edge in cash on hand as of January 21, and he had out-raised Morenoff by nearly $200K. Villalba has outspent Moreoff by almost 12 to 1.

Three Republican incumbents were defeated by primary challengers in 2014, but history is actually on the incumbents’ side this year. Just one incumbent Republican state representative from Dallas Co. has lost a primary race in a presidential election year since 1996: former one-term Rep. Thomas Latham (R-Sunnyvale) in 2008.

HD114 is fairly friendly to “establishment” candidates. All but six precincts lie in SD16, and HD114 voters preferred Sen. John Carona (R-Dallas) over his challenger Don Huffines, 54%-46%. Five of the remaining precincts lie in SD2, and HD114 voters in those precincts preferred Sen. Bob Deuell (R-Greenville) to Bob Hall, 50%-33% (A third candidate received 17%.). Added together, the “establishment” candidates received 1,034 more votes in HD114 than their Tea Party challengers. In the 2012 runoff, HD114 voters narrowly preferred Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst over Sen. Dan Patrick (R-Houston) by 68 votes. It’s worth noting that Dewhurst gained 566 votes from the primary while Patrick lost 905 votes.

Morenoff has received the endorsements of movement conservative groups and elected officials such as Sen. Don Huffines (R-Dallas), who is one of Morenoff’s top contributors. In a Facebook post, Morenoff said 15 of the district’s 26 precinct chairmen had endorsed him, and the 11 who have not “include a number ethically precluded from endorsing anyone.”

In another Facebook post, Morenoff said he knocked on his 4,000th door during the campaign. Villalba posted that he too is knocking on doors and claims “over 10,000 supporters.” Villalba’s website lists more than 1,000 individual supporters, though it is unclear how many are district residents and it appears the list may date back to his initial run for the House based on some of the quotes.

The presidential primary is likely to bring record numbers of voters to the Republican primary, which should have the effect of boosting moderate candidates in this district. We would not be surprised if HD114 turned out to be one of Marco Rubio’s strongest in the state. If that’s the case, and absent a large influx of movement conservative contributions, Villalba should win re-election.