Eight former representatives are running to reclaim their former seats, or win new ones, in 2016. Three (Lance Gooden, George Lavender and Bennett Ratliff) lost their 2014 re-election bids in the Republican primary, and two more (Philip Cortez and Mary Ann Perez) lost in the 2014 general election. The other three (Jim Landtroop, Chente Quintanilla and Hugh Shine) have been away longer.

History, it seems, is on at least some of their sides. At least one former representative has returned to the chamber after missing at least one term since 2000.

Thirteen former representatives have won their way back into the House after a term or more away since 2000. Only two of those were away for more than a term before being “re-elected” (Roberto Alonzo and Todd Hunter) and only two of them defeated an incumbent who had served multiple terms (Alonzo and Rodney Anderson).

However, at least another 13 former representatives were not as successful in their comeback efforts since 2000.

East Texas is home to a pair of these races, both rematches from the 2014 Republican primary. In HD1, Rep. Gary VanDeaver (R-New Boston) faces former Rep. George Lavender (R-Texarkana) after defeating the two-term incumbent, 54%-46%, in 2014. In HD4, Rep. Stuart Spitzer (R-Kaufman) faces former Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Terrell) for the third consecutive primary. Gooden won, 54%-46%, in their first match in 2012, and Spitzer won the rematch, 51%-49%, in 2014.

HD1

Lavender had served two terms after ousting former Rep. Stephen Frost (D-Texarkana) in the 2010 general election. This victory followed two unsuccessful earlier bids for the Legislature. In 1996, Lavender lost the general election for HD1, 64%-36%, to Rep. Barry Telford (D-DeKalb). Two years earlier, Lavender lost the general election, as a Democrat, for SD1, 65%-35%, to Sen. Bill Ratliff (R-Mount Pleasant).

Lavender out-raised VanDeaver by a 3-to-1 margin ($191K to $64K) leading up to the 2014 primary vote, and Lavender raised more money from the district ($41K to $16K). Yet, the former teacher and school administrator, buoyed by the backing of teachers’ groups and the Texas Parent PAC’s $30K in contributions, prevailed.

Three of the four counties in HD1 were not part of the district when Lavender first won the seat in 2010. That year, Lavender won Bowie Co. by 814 votes (57%-43%) and lost all three of the other counties by a total of 503 votes (37%-63%). Bowie Co. represented 76% of the primary vote in 2010. Lavender was unopposed in his redrawn district in 2012.

In 2014, Bowie Co. represented just 54% of the primary vote, and Lavender beat VanDeaver by 508 votes (53%-47%). VanDeaver won Franklin, Lamar and Red River Cos. by 2,011 votes (63%-37%).

Rep. Gary VanDeaver

hd1_vandeaver

Campaign Finance Summary

$68,490 – Cash on Hand

$18,105 – Contributions (1/1-1/21)
$37,377 – Expenditures (1/1-1/21)

$93,882 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$92,606 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)

$500 – Loan Principal

Geographic Sources of Contributions

$35,332 – Austin (38%)
$17,200 – Texarkana (18%)
$9,200 – Paris (10%)
$5,500 – Waco (6%)
$5,050 – San Antonio (5%)

$16,100 – Other Texas cities (17%)
$5,500 – Outside Texas (6%)

Type of Contributor

$47,905 – Individuals (51%)
$45,977 – PACs and other entities (49%)

$93,755 – Cash (100%)
$127 – In Kind (0%)

District Zip Codes

$29,900 – Donors in district zip codes (32%)
$63,982 – Donors outside district (68%)

77 donors within district giving $1K or less

Top Contributors

$5,500 – Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND

$5,250 – Frederick Joyce

$5,000 – Act for Texas Professional Educators PAC, Assoc. of Texas Professional Educators PAC, Charles Butt, Lonnie Pilgrim

$3,532 – Texas Medical Assoc. TEXPAC

$2,500 – Kickapoo Traditional Tribe, Larry Townes, Texas Hospital Assoc. HOSPAC

$2,000 – Texas Building Branch PAC

George Lavender

hd1_lavender

Campaign Finance Summary

$21,208 – Cash on Hand

$3,110 – Contributions (1/1-1/21)
$37,625 – Expenditures (1/1-1/21)

$40,470 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$88,187 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)

$11,731 – Loan Principal

Geographic Sources of Contributions

$31,550 – Texarkana (79%)
$2,340 – Grapevine (6%)
$2,000 – Atlanta (5%)
$1,150 – New Boston (3%)

$49,159 – Other Texas cities (30%)
$2,395 – Outside Texas (6%)

Type of Contributor

$36,520 – Individuals (91%)
$3,615 – PACs and other entities (9%)

$40,135 – Cash (100%)
$0 – In Kind (0%)

District Zip Codes

$33,325 – Donors in district zip codes (83%)
$6,810 – Donors outside district (17%)

32 donors within district giving $1K or less

Top Contributors

$10,000 – Steve Ledwell, Danny Proctor

$2,240 – NE Tarrant Tea Party PAC

$2,000 – Jim Thompson, Charles Thornton

$1,500 – Ken Autry

The district has supported “establishment” candidates over Tea Party-backed candidates in recent cycles, at least in the Republican primary. In 2012, David Dewhurst received 52% of the vote in HD1 in the open-seat Senate race. Ted Cruz finished more than 5,000 votes behind him. In 2014, U.S. Rep. Ralph Hall received 46% of the vote in the CD4 primary, while John Ratcliffe received 28%. Also in 2014, Dewhurst came in first (41%) in the four-way primary for, besting Dan Patrick by 2,850 votes.

In the 2012 runoff, Dewhurst carried HD1 by 27 votes over Cruz, but he lost more than 5,100 votes in the process. Cruz lost 51. In the 2014 runoff, Dewhurst again lost nearly half of his support, and Patrick carried HD1, 52%-48%. Hall likewise lost more than half of his support, and Ratcliffe carried HD1, 52%-48%.

This 2016 primary is not the typical “establishment” versus “conservative” fight that typifies Republican races across the state. Both candidates are jockeying to claim who is more conservative, but the anti-Speaker Straus coalition is largely on the sidelines. Both candidates have voted for Speaker Straus. VanDeaver continues to support Straus, while Lavender has said he has not decided on who would receive his vote. Lavender has received a little over $3K from the NE Tarrant Tea Party PAC and three donors to movement conservative candidates. VanDeaver has received none.

One contribution VanDeaver has received is of particular interest. In January, HEB Stores owner Charles Butt gave VanDeaver a $5K contribution. In 2014, he gave Lavender $7.5K. Several Austin PACs have also contributed to VanDeaver after backing Lavender in 2014, including HillCo PAC, the Independent Bankers Assoc. of Texas PAC and the Texas Farm Bureau’s AGFUND. Texans for Lawsuit Reform has not contributed in the race after giving Lavender $15K in 2014.

Two large educator PACs have contributed to VanDeaver this cycle, but the Texas Parent PAC, his largest contributor last cycles, so far has not. The group has endorsed him.

Neither candidate’s web site lists endorsements. Both are about even in fundraising from district zip codes (Lavender $33K, VanDeaver $30K), but VanDeaver has a better than 2-to-1 edge in small donors from the district (77 to 32). VanDeaver has the overall edges in campaign resources.

Both candidates are from Bowie Co. Lavender’s home town of Texarkana represents about half the county’s population. VanDeaver’s home town of New Boston is substantially smaller. Yet Lavender only won the county, 53%-47%, in 2014 (He won it, 57%-43%, in 2010 over another Texarkana candidate.).

Lavender’s ability to win this race hinges on whether he can improve his performance in the three counties he lost in 2014. In both 2010 and 2014, he won his home county but lost all of the other three.

Turnout is expected to be high, as an undecided presidential race and a number of contested local races should pique voter interest.

In Bowie Co., the sheriff race also features a candidate from Texarkana (Jay Womack) and New Boston (incumbent Sheriff James Prince). Incidentally, Prince switched parties last year and is making his first run for sheriff as a Republican. Bowie Co. voters will also decide contested races for county commissioner, justice of the peace and three constables. Franklin Co. has a pair of contested county commissioner races. Lamar Co. has a contested county clerk race, two county commissioner races and five constable races. Red River Co. has a contested county commissioner and constable race. All four counties are also part of open SD1.

VanDeaver has most of the advantages, but Lavender did last election cycle. We note that more than 80% of Lavender’s contributions have come from Bowie Co., and we expect he will be competitive there. The question is whether Lavender can be competitive in the district’s other counties, which he has not done in previous primary races.

We also note that Lavender is trying to position himself as the more conservative candidate, but that positioning has not yet drawn movement conservative groups and their campaign contributions. The NE Tarrant Tea Party PAC has given Lavender a little over $2K, which is similar to their contributions to numerous other conservative candidates, but none of the other big conservative donors have thus far placed a bet in this race. One expects they would if they viewed the seat as a potential pick-up. We will wait for the 8-day-out reports before making a prediction here.

HD4

Second time was a charm for Rep. Stuart Spitzer (R-Kaufman) in 2014, when he ousted two-term Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Terrell), 51%-49%, in the Republican Primary. Two years earlier, Gooden defeated Spitzer, 54%-46%. Two years before that, it was Gooden doing the ousting. He defeated his former boss, Rep. Betty Brown (R-Terrell), 50.5%-49.5%, in the 2010 Republican primary.

Close primaries are nothing new for HD4 voters. Five straight primaries have been won with 54% or less of the vote. Prior to her close defeat, Brown won two straight primaries over Forney attorney Wade Gent, 52%-48% in 2008 and 53%-47% in 2006.

Gooden raised more than $350K more than Spitzer and outspent Spitzer better than 3-to-1 in each of their prior face-offs. Spitzer had the support of local Tea Party leaders and movement conservative groups such as Concerned Women for America, Empower Texans and Young Conservatives of Texas. These groups’ affiliation with Spitzer grew after his unsuccessful 2012 challenge.

Spitzer was his own largest contributor in both challenges. He loaned his campaign $80K in 2012, and he raised $28K, mostly locally. He received two small, but important, contributions from Empower Texans totaling just over $2K. These were for a “district-wide call with voters” and campaign buttons. He also received a late $5K contribution from Austin oilman and business professor Jeff Sandefer, a leading donor to movement conservative groups.

He loaned himself more money ($70K) for his 2014 campaign but raised less money (just $17K).  His contributors included Fort Worth custodial services executive Don Dyer ($5K) and Fort Worth retired biochemist Michael Olcott ($1K), both significant donors to movement conservative groups. Spitzer spent a little more ($92K) in 2014 than in 2012 ($76K).

Gooden received significant support from Texans for Insurance Reform PAC ($44K), the Texas Parent PAC ($12K) and several educators’ groups ($5K) in his race against Brown. Collectively, they comprised 57% of Gooden’s total campaign contributions. Texans for Lawsuit Reform contributed $20K after the 2010 primary.

The trial lawyers and educators were less involved in his first re-election race, and Texans for Lawsuit Reform contributed a total of just over $15K.

As the 2014 primary neared, Gooden received contributions from Texans for Lawsuit Reform ($15K) and also from the Texas Trial Lawyers Assoc. and a number of plaintiffs’ attorneys. This coalition was not enough. Texans for Lawsuit Reform has since contributed $5K to Spitzer. Educator groups have remained with Gooden.

As of January 31, Spitzer now has many of the campaign finance advantages, but Gooden has out-raised Spitzer in the district, $42K to $16K.

Rep. Stuart Spitzer

hd4_spitzer

Campaign Finance Summary

$116,172 – Cash on Hand

$11,228 – Contributions (1/1-1/21)
$30,912 – Expenditures (1/1-1/21)

$151,415 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$98,871 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)

$137,000 – Loan Principal

Geographic Sources of Contributions

$77,655 – Austin (51%)
$25,135 – Cisco (17%)
$8,065 – Fort Worth (5%)
$8,010 – Houston (5%)
$5,755 – Tyler (4%)
$4,480 – Athens (3%)
$4,242 – Kaufman (3%)

$18,076 – Other Texas cities (12%)
$0 – Outside Texas (0%)

Type of Contributor

$76,015 – Individuals (50%)
$75,400 – PACs and other entities (50%)

$150,064 – Cash (99%)
$6,351 – In Kind (4%)

District Zip Codes

$16,141 – Donors in district zip codes (11%)
$135,274 – Donors outside district (89%)

82 donors within district giving $1K or less

Top Contributors

$52,000 – Empower Texans PAC

$25,000 – Farris Wilks

$10,000 – Rex Gore

$7,400 – Mike Olcott

$5,000 – Mayes Middleton, Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC

$2,500 – Windi Grimes, Texas Assoc. of Nurse Anesthetists PAC

$2,328 – Constituent Focus PAC

$2,240 – NE Tarrant Tea Party PAC

$2,000 – Rural Friends of Electric Cooperatives PAC

$1,780 – Rep. Matt Schaefer

Lance Gooden

hd4_gooden

Campaign Finance Summary

$35,995 – Cash on Hand

$29,352 – Contributions (1/1-1/21)
$19,070 – Expenditures (1/1-1/21)

$84,957 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$46,242 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)

$0 – Loan Principal

Geographic Sources of Contributions

$24,500 – Dallas (29%)
$22,602 – Kaufman (27%)
$10,325 – Terrell (12%)
$6,250 – Austin (7%)
$5,000 – Denton (6%)
$4,465 – Athens (5%)

$11,815 – Other Texas cities (14%)
$0 – Outside Texas (0%)

Type of Contributor

$73,457 – Individuals (86%)
$11,500 – PACs and other entities (14%)

$65,755 – Cash (77%)
$19,202 – In Kind (23%)

District Zip Codes

$42,357 – Donors in district zip codes (50%)
$42,600 – Donors outside district (50%)

77 donors within district giving $1K or less

Top Contributors

$12,102 – Wendy Thomas

$10,000 – Trevor Rees-Jones

$8,500 – Keith Thompson

$5,000 – Gene Phillips, Thomas Wilson

$4,500 – Skip Trimble

$2,500 – Associa PAC, Assoc. of Texas Professional Educators PAC, Jack Knox, Jim Pitts, Texas American Federation of Teachers PAC

$2,000 – Gwendolyn Kines-McLeod, Randy Rogers

More than two thirds of Spitzer’s contributions have come from movement conservative groups and their donors. Empower Texans PAC ($52K) and Farris Wilks ($25K) together represent half of Spitzer’s total contributions. Despite being out-raised in the district, Spitzer has slightly more donors there giving $1K or less than Gooden (82 to 77).

Gooden’s share of the vote in Kaufman Co., the larger of the district’s two counties, fell to 48% in 2014 after nearly identical 51% performances in 2010 and 2012. Gooden won Henderson Co., 59%-41%, in 2012, but Spitzer carried Henderson Co. by 27 votes in 2014. In that county, Spitzer gained 830 votes from 2012 while Gooden lost 364.

David Dewhurst’s performances in HD4 demonstrate the extent to which “establishment” candidates were out of favor in 2014. In the 2012 U.S. Senate primary, Dewhurst finished 2,525 votes ahead of Ted Cruz. Two years later, Dewhurst finished 3,558 votes behind Dan Patrick in the LTGOV race. In those respective runoffs, Dewhurst received 49% in 2012 and 35% in 2014. Sen. Bob Deuell (R-Greenville) finished first in his three-way primary race with just 42%, edging out Bob Hall by just 18 votes, in Kaufman Co. (Henderson Co. is in another district.). It was Deuell’s second-worst showing in the primary (He lost Van Zandt Co., which is Hall’s home county.). Deuell received 43% in the runoff, which was again his second-worst performance.

Spitzer was one of 19 representatives who voted against Speaker Joe Straus when the 2015 session convened. That alone will keep his Tea Party supporters happy, especially as he faces an opponent who has voted for Straus and taken contributions from his Texas House Leadership Fund.

Neither candidate’s web site lists endorsements. Spitzer has been endorsed by movement conservative groups and their leaders. Gooden has the support of Athens Mayor Jerry Don Vaught and Kaufman Mayor Jeff Jordan (Former Kaufman Mayor William Fortner endorsed Spitzer in 2013.). It is unclear how local Republican leaders break, although all who oppose Speaker Straus will be supportive of Spitzer.

Unless higher turnout driven by the unsettled presidential race moderates the primary electorate, the district appears to be moving toward  Tea Party-style candidates and away from anyone identified as “establishment.” Gooden has an uphill fight to reclaim his seat.