Using our formulas for calculating how much redder or bluer a district is than the state as a whole and plugging the recent Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll’s spread in the presidential race into the model, we have our early projection of the average Democratic and Republican candidate in each House, Senate and Congressional district.

The initial run produced “lean Republican,” “toss up” or “lean Democratic” ratings in 26 House, no Senate and 12 Congressional seats. “Likely Republican” included 13 House, 2 Senate and six Congressional seats, and 13 House, 3 Senate and three Congressional seats were initially rated “Likely Democratic.” I generally agreed with the initial run but moved a few districts toward toss up – including one “likely Democratic” district – based on a combination of intuition and candidates’ past over- or under-performance versus the rest of their party’s ticket in the district.

This process yielded the following initial ratings:

Likely Republican

HD17 – Cyrier
HD23 – Middleton
HD70 – Sanford

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