Using our formulas for calculating how much redder or bluer a district is than the state as a whole and plugging the recent Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll’s spread in the presidential race into the model, we have our early projection of the average Democratic and Republican candidate in each House, Senate and Congressional district.

The initial run produced “lean Republican,” “toss up” or “lean Democratic” ratings in 26 House, no Senate and 12 Congressional seats. “Likely Republican” included 13 House, 2 Senate and six Congressional seats, and 13 House, 3 Senate and three Congressional seats were initially rated “Likely Democratic.” I generally agreed with the initial run but moved a few districts toward toss up – including one “likely Democratic” district – based on a combination of intuition and candidates’ past over- or under-performance versus the rest of their party’s ticket in the district.

This process yielded the following initial ratings:

Likely Republican

HD17 – Cyrier
HD23 – Middleton
HD70 – Sanford
HD84 – Frullo
HD85 – Stephenson
HD89 – Noble
HD91 – Klick
HD106 – Patterson
HD122 – Larson
HD127 – Huberty
HD129 – Paul
HD133 – Murphy
HD150 – Swanson

SD11 – Taylor
SD12 – Nelson

CD5 – Gooden
CD12 – Granger
CD14 – Weber
CD17 open (Flores)
CD26 – Burgess

We moved CD27 to Strong Republican from Likely Republican.

Lean Republican

HD14 – Raney
HD26 open (Miller) – moved from Toss Up
HD28 – Gates
HD29 – Thompson
HD32 – Hunter
HD64 – Stucky
HD92 open (Stickland)
HD93 – Krause
HD94 – Tinderholt
HD97 – Goldman
HD121 – Allison
HD126 – Harless

Senate – none

CD2 – Crenshaw
CD3 – Taylor
CD6 – Wright
CD21 – Roy
CD25 – Williams
CD31 – Carter

Toss Up

HD54 – Buckley
HD65 – Beckley – moved from Lean Democratic
HD66 – Shaheen
HD67 – Leach
HD96 open (Zedler)
HD108 – Meyer – moved from Lean Democratic
HD112 – Button
HD132 – Calanni
HD134 – Davis – moved from Likely Democratic
HD135 – Rosenthal – moved from Lean Democratic
HD138 open (Bohac) – moved from Lean Democratic

Senate – none

CD7 – Fletcher
CD10 – McCaul
CD22 open (Olson) – moved from Lean Republican
CD24 open (Marchant)

Lean Democratic

HD45 – Zwiener
HD47 – Goodwin
HD52 – Talarico
HD113 – Bowers – moved from Likely Democratic
HD114 – Turner

SD19 – Flores – moved from Likely Democratic

CD23 open (Hurd) – moved from Toss Up
CD32 – Allred

Likely Democratic

HD31 – Guillen
HD34 – Herrero
HD41 – Guerra
HD74 open (Nevárez)
HD102 – Ramos
HD105 – Meza
HD107 – Neave
HD115 – Johnson
HD117 – Cortez
HD118 – Pacheco
HD136 – Bucy

SD20 – Hinojosa
SD21 – Zaffirini

CD15 – Gonzales
CD28 – Cuellar
CD34 – Vela

Statewide Offices

SEN – Lean Republican
All others – Likely Republican

We will re-run the model as new polls are completed and make further refinements based on runoff results, campaign finance reports and analyses of the individual races.

©2020 Texas Election Source LLC