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Early Voting for the March 6 primary election continues until March 2. Data from a few counties last night indicated Day Three (Thursday) turnout had rebounded slightly from Day Two (Wednesday). Today, data from the 15 counties with the most registered voters confirmed it:

  • While it remains the case that more people have voted in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary, Republican early voters outnumbered Democratic early voters in those counties for the first time this week.
  • During Day Three, 32,025 Republican and 28,657 Democratic ballots in person or by mail in those 15 counties, compared to 20,171 and 25,593, respectively, on Day Two.
  • Compared to the same single day in 2014, Republican turnout is up 30% – a 50-point upswing from yesterday – while Democratic turnout is up 90%, a better than 70-point upswing from yesterday. Compared to the same single day in 2016, Republican turnout is down 20% and Democratic turnout is down 13%.
  • Compared to the first three days in 2014, cumulative Republican turnout is up less than 1% while Democratic turnout is up 69%. Compared to the first three days in 2016, cumulative Republican turnout is down 20% and Democratic turnout is down less than 1%.
  • 2% of registered voters in those 15 counties have cast ballots. This is up about four tenths of a percent from the first three days of 2014 and slightly behind 2016.

Democratic turnout continues to be well ahead of any other mid-term, gubernatorial election cycle. However, it remains far behind the record-setting pace of 2008.

Chart by Visualizer
Chart by Visualizer

Through Day Three (Thursday), one out of every five Democratic primary voters have no prior primary voting history, according to Republican political consultant Derek Ryan. Voters with no prior primary voting history represent about 8% of Republican primary participants so far. Ryan finds very little evidence of voters crossing over into the other primary. About 6% of Democratic primary voters and 3% of Republican primary voters have recent history voting in the other party’s primary.

The bulk of primary voters have prior history voting in the same party’s primary. Seven out of every 10 Democratic primary voters and 87% of Republican primary voters have cast ballots in only their respective party’s primary.

A few observations about Day Four (Friday) Democratic early voting totals:

  • Harris Co. Democratic turnout through four days is now ahead of the 2016 pace and is second only to 2008. Turnout is more than double the same period in 2014.
  • Tarrant Co. Democratic turnout through four days is greater than the first four days of 2010 and 2014 combined, but it less than half the turnout from the first four days of 2008.
  • Montgomery Co. Democratic turnout through four days is higher than the first four days of the 2014 and 2016 primaries combined, but it still just a third of the turnout for the first few days of 2008.

Republican turnout for Day Four in Harris Co. was 24% above the same day in 2014. In Tarrant Co., it was 21% higher. Even in generally blue Travis Co., Republican turnout on Day Four was 11% higher than in 2014, and cumulative turnout over the four days is 26% ahead of four years ago.

SEN: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) appears to have raised around $800K during the first 45 days of 2018, according to various news reports. That would be just over one third the amount raised by U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) over the same period. Cruz still has the advantage in cash on hand, $6M to $4.9M.

Detailed reports are not available. Unlike virtually every other candidate required to file campaign finance reports, candidates for U.S. Senate do not file their reports electronically. Instead, they provide paper copies to the Secretary of the Senate, who in turn scans them and transmits the scanned images to the Federal Election Commission. They are typically not available for public inspection over the Internet until at least a week after they are filed.