Early voting in person continues through Friday across Texas. Turnout remains record-setting but has slowed significantly from last week’s torrid pace, although it showed a slight rebound on Tuesday.

Just shy of 3M Texans voted early in person or by mail through Monday, the eighth day of the early voting period, but in-person turnout was the lowest weekday total. Monday’s in-person vote total was 20% below Friday’s turnout and 23% below Tuesday’s high. Still, same-day turnout was 14% higher than the corresponding Monday in 2012 and 10% higher than in 2008.

Overall, turnout continues to set a record pace, albeit a slowing one. Compared with 2012, 38% more Texans have voted in the 15 counties with the most registered voters through eight days. Turnout is 44% higher than 2008 and 131% higher than 2004. These percentages are continuing to fall from the Day One highs of 52%, 66% and 203%, respectively.

Measured as the percent of registered voters, turnout through eight days in the 15 counties is 30.6%. On the corresponding day in 2012, turnout was 25.0%, and it was 24.5% in 2008.

The reports we’ve seen for today (Tuesday) suggest a slight rebound from yesterday’s (Monday’s) lows, but turnout is below last week’s weekday average.

  • Harris Co.’s in-person turnout declined slightly from Monday, making it the third straight non-Sunday that in-person turnout has dropped. Same-day turnout was 12% ahead of the corresponding Tuesday in 2012 and 7% ahead of 2008. Overall, early voting turnout through nine days is 29% ahead of 2012, 45% ahead of 2008 and 173% ahead of 2004.
  • In Tarrant Co., in-person turnout was slightly higher than Monday’s total, but still lower than any weekday last week and Saturday. Same-day turnout was 19% ahead of the same day in 2012 but 11% behind the 2008 figure.
  • In-person turnout in Bexar Co. rose 8% from Monday, but it was 5% less than the average weekday turnout last week.
  • In Travis Co., in-person turnout rose 13% from Monday’s weekday low, but it was 21% below last week’s weekday average and 3% below the same-day turnout for the ninth day of early voting in 2008.
  • Denton Co. saw a slight increase in turnout from Monday. Through nine days, overall early voting turnout is 47% ahead of 2012, 59% ahead of 2008 and 136% ahead of 2004.
  • Montgomery Co. turnout declined slightly from Monday but was 30% more than the same day in 2012 and 21% more than in 2008.
  • Williamson Co. saw an 8% increase from Monday’s weekday low mark, but is still 33% lower than the weekday average from last week.
  • In Nueces Co., in-person turnout rose 9% from Monday but remained below last week’s weekday average. Same day turnout was 28% above the ninth day of early voting in 2012 but just 2% above 2008.

According to Republican political consultant Derek Ryan, about one out of every eight early voters has no recent primary or general election voting history. Primary voters continue to represent the bulk of early voters. About 35% of early voters have a Republican primary voting history, and about 25% have a Democratic primary voting history in the 20 counties he analyzes.

We expect turnout to hold steady for the next couple of days, then rise on Friday. The last day of early voting in person has historically seen the largest in-person totals.