Corrections: We have at various times erroneously called CD8 open (Safe R) candidate Morgan Luttrell (R) by his twin brother’s name, Marcus. We have corrected these reports online and regret the errors.
Campaign Finance: State and legislative candidates facing primary opposition were required to file their 8-day-out campaign finance reports today (Tuesday), a day later than usual because of the timing of the President’s Day holiday. These reports disclose contributions received and expenditures made between January 21 and February 19. We expect these reports will become available online tomorrow (Wednesday), and we will analyze them and update our Crib Sheets throughout the day.
Early voting continues through Friday. There was no early voting in person yesterday (Monday) due to the holiday, and most smaller counties did not offer in-person voting on Sunday. Based on the numbers reported to the Secretary of State, primary turnout continues to lag behind recent years.
In the 15 counties with the most registered voters, a total of 232K votes have been cast in the Republican primary and 217K have been cast in the Democratic primary through the first eight days of the early voting period. Republican turnout is 6% less than in 2018 and 28% less than 2020. Democratic turnout is about 20% less than in 2018 and 46% less than 2020. Cameron and Hidalgo Cos. continue to see record Republican turnout. None of the 15 counties are experiencing record Democratic turnout.
Statewide, about 464K votes have been cast in the Republican primary (2.7% of registered voters) and 293K votes have been cast in the Democratic primary (1.7%). Interestingly, about half of all Republican votes have been cast in the 15 counties with the most registered voters, but almost three quarters of Democratic votes have come from those 15 counties.
GOV (Likely R): The Gov. Greg Abbott (R) campaign announced he raised $3.8M during the past month and has nearly $50M on hand. Those totals imply he has spent around $18M since January 21.
The campaign of former Sen. Don Huffines (R-Dallas) released a new ad, “Nothing Changes Unless You Do Something,” that will test the speed-reading ability of some voters.
Meanwhile, former Republican Party chair Allen West will join singer Ted Nugent and the American Truckers Freedom Convoy “sometime next week in South Texas.” Tuesday is primary Election Day.
Democratic frontrunner Beto O’Rourke’s campaign announced he raised nearly $3M during the past month.
AG (Lean R): U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) endorsed U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler) over Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R), who Roy has previously called on to resign.
HD15 (Safe R): Former President Trump endorsed Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands).
HD61 open (Likely R): Former President Trump endorsed Frederick Frazier (R), who previously served on Trump’s Presidential Commission on Law Enforcement and the Administration of Justice.
Austin: Former Sen. Kirk Watson (D-Austin), who was mayor from 1997-2001, announced he would run to succeed term-limited Mayor Steve Adler.
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