SD30 special (Safe Republican): Term-limited Denton Mayor Chris Watts established a campaign committee for a potential run for the seat being vacated by Sen. Pat Fallon (R-Prosper). Watts was first elected in 2014 and re-elected twice. His final term was to have ended in May but was extended when the city postponed its general and special elections to November 3.
Meanwhile, Rep. James Frank (R-Wichita) said he would not seek the seat and would instead support Rep. Drew Springer (R-Muenster), who is considering the race.
HD126 (Lean Republican): Rep. Sam Harless (R-Spring) leads Democratic challenger Natali Hurtado, 47%-43%, according to a new internal poll. President Trump leads presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, 48%-47%. Both races are within the GQR poll’s ±4.9% margin of error. The poll of 401 “likely” voters was conducted using live interviews on landline and mobile numbers. It was in the field July 27-30. Harless defeated Hurtado, 55%-45%, in 2018.
CD10 (Toss Up): U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) leads Mike Siegel, 46%-39%, according to an RMG Research poll (PDF) conducted for U.S. Term Limits. McCaul’s approval rating was 40/23, and Siegel’s was 28/27. President Trump’s job performance rating was 49/48 (34/43 “strongly”), matching his favorability rating.
The poll found a wide gender gap in the district. McCaul leads among men, 57%-32%, while Siegel leads among women, 46%-35%. Trump’s favorability rating among men is 60/38 (44/34 “very” favorable/unfavorable) and 41/56 (26/50 “very”) among women.
The poll of 500 “registered voters” was conducted online from July 28-August 3. It’s stated margin of error is ±4.5% for the full sample.
CD23 open (Lean Democratic): The Tony Gonzales campaign released an internal poll showing him trailing Gina Ortiz Jones, 41%-40%, a statistical tie. Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump, 48%-45%, and the generic congressional ballot has the Democrat leading, 47%-43%, all well within the margin of error. The one-page polling memo indicates Jones’s favorability rating is 29/23. It does not provide a rating for Gonzales.
The Public Opinion Strategies poll of 400 “voters” was conducted in English (85%) and Spanish (15%) by landlines (43%) and mobile devices (57%). It was in the field August 6-9 and has a stated margin of error of ±4.9%.
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