A new YouGov survey prepared for the CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker in Texas shows U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (45%) and Donald Trump (30%) far ahead of other rivals. Marco Rubio (8%), Ben Carson (5%) and Jeb Bush (4%) were the only other candidates polling better than 2%. The poll of 984 likely Republican voters was in the field January 18-21. Its stated margin of error is ±4.4%.
The poll’s methodology was not indicated in the press release. Past YouGov polls relied on an opt-in, online survey of people the firm has specifically recruited to take its surveys. The sample used to conduct this poll is taken from its “active panelists” in Texas, so respondents were not randomly chosen from the voting age population. This tends to over-represent certain groups in the voting-age population, particularly older voters, whites and men. In this particular poll, voters over age 45 represented 71% of the sample, and white voters represented 87%.
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