Cruz Leads by 6 in First Post-Kavanaugh Poll

Oct 7, 2018 | Campaign News

A new CBS News/YouGov poll (PDF) shows U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 50%-44%, among “likely voters.” The poll found most voters are set in their picks as just 6% of respondents said they “might still change” their minds before voting, and it reinforced past polls’ findings of a gender gap (albeit a narrower one) and an enthusiasm gap between older and younger voters. A June CBS News/YouGov poll showed Cruz leading, 50%-40%.

Cruz leads among male “likely voters,” 53%-40%, but is tied with O’Rourke among women, 47%-47%. “Likely voters” aged 65 and older favor Cruz, 61%-37%, while voters under 30 favor O’Rourke, 57%-35%. Cruz leads among Anglo “likely voters,” 63%-33%, while O’Rourke leads among Hispanic/Latino “likely voters,” 56%-35%, and African-Americans, 78%-9%.

The poll found the state evenly split on President Trump’s job performance, with 51% approving (33% strongly) and 49% disapproving (40% strongly), and evenly split on “the way things are going in the U.S. right now,” with 50% satisfied and 50% dissatisfied. A majority of “those voting in 2018 elections” said their vote was mainly about “the direction of the country.”

By slight edges, more people believe Cruz “is honest and trustworthy” (52%) than O’Rourke (48%), and more people believe Cruz “is someone I can related to” (48%) than O’Rourke (44%).

Three out of five respondents said “the matter surrounding Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court” makes them “more motivated to get out and vote.” Respondents generally favored Kavanaugh’s confirmation, 47%-38%.

Asked how politics would change “if more women were elected to office,” 40% of respondents said politics would “work better” while 17% said politics would “not work as well.” The remaining 43% said politics would “stay the same.” Nearly three in four Democrats said politics would work better if more women were elected to office compared to just 12% of Republicans. One in seven women said politics would “not work as well” if more women were elected to office.

The poll added further evidence to two trends we’ve observed over the last few months: a strong, but narrower, gender gap and a significant enthusiasm gap between older and younger voters. Several notable differences arose between men and women:

  • Men generally viewed Trump’s job performance more favorably (55/45) than women (49/51) and generally were more satisfied with “the way things are going in the U.S. right now” (52/47) than women (47/53).
  • 52% of men would vote to confirm Kavanaugh compared to 36% of women. The genders were equally likely to vote against him.
  • But, 74% of men said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting compared to 55% of women, and men were more likely to be “more motivated to go out and vote” as a result of Kavanaugh’s confirmation (65%) than women (58%).

Poll results indicated a strong difference between older and younger voters when it comes to the upcoming election:

  • 95% of respondents aged 65 and older said they “definitely” would vote compared to 56% of respondents under 30.
  • 69% of respondents aged 65 and older said they paid a “great deal” of attention to the upcoming election compared to 35% of respondents under 30.’
  • 73% of respondents aged 65 and older said Kavanaugh’s confirmation process made them “more motivated to go out and vote” compared to 48% of respondents under 30.

The poll also showed a smaller enthusiasm gap between self-identified Republicans and Democrats. When it comes to likelihood of voting, 82% of Republicans said they would “definitely” vote compared to 74% of Democrats. Additionally, 71% of Anglo voters said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting compared to 54% of Hispanic/Latino voters and 42% of African-American voters.

The poll of 1,031 registered voters was in the field October 2-5, which puts it between the second Kavanaugh hearing (Sept. 27) and his confirmation vote (Oct. 6). The sample was “selected from YouGov’s online panel to be representative of registered voters in Texas in terms of age, race, gender and education.” Its stated margin of error is ±3.9%.

Recent polls and our reports about them:

We will repost this list with additional polls as we get closer to Election Day.

* We have serious reservations about the Ipsos and Emerson polls and included them in our reports, and on this list, solely because they received national news attention.

©2018 Texas Election Source LLC