A new poll conducted for CNN (PDF) shows U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 52%-45%, and Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 57%-39%, among “likely voters.”
Cruz leads among male “likely voters,” 57%-41%, while O’Rourke’s 49%-47% lead among women is within the poll’s margin of error. Cruz leads among Anglos, 66%-33%, while O’Rourke leads among “Non-white likely voters,” 62%-32%.
“Likely voters” view Cruz (52/42) more favorably than O’Rourke (45/39). Only 7% of “likely voters” have “never heard of” O’Rourke. The poll found “likely voters” evenly split on President Trump’s job approval, 49/48.
The poll results also show numbers for registered voters, which include individuals not expected likely to vote. Cruz’s lead is 2 points smaller among that larger group, while Abbott’s is the same.
While the results are likely indicative of the races as a whole, the sample is questionable. A quarter of the overall respondents self-identified as Democrats, another quarter as Republicans and half described themselves as independents or members of another party. This distribution is not likely an accurate reflection of the electorate. In the 2016 general election, 34% of all voters cast a straight-party Republican ballot, 28% cast a straight-party Democratic ballot and the remaining 38% voted a full ballot.
The poll was conducted by Pennsylvania-based SSRS. Live interviewers called 1,004 Texas adults via landlines and mobile devices. Of those, 862 were registered voters and 716 were “likely voters.” It was in the field October 9-13. The poll’s stated margin of error for likely voters is ±4.5%.
Meanwhile, a poll conducted by Democratic polling firm Tulchin Research for MoveOn (PDF) shows Cruz leading O’Rourke, 49%-45%, with Libertarian nominee Neal Dikeman polling at 3%. After hearing “more information about both candidates,” O’Rourke takes a 50%-45% lead. No crosstabs were provided. Tulchin Research was the polling firm for the Bernie Sanders presidential campaign, so we consider it as we would an internal poll.
Recent polls and our reports about them:
- CNN (Oct.): Cruz 52-45, Abbott 57-39 (“CNN Poll: Cruz by Abbott, Abbott by 18“)
- NYT/Siena Coll. (Oct.): Currently Cruz 52-43 (“Quinnipiac Poll: Cruz Still by 9, Abbott by 20“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (Oct.): Cruz 54-45, Abbott 58-38 (“Quinnipiac Poll: Cruz Still by 9, Abbott by 20“)
- Emerson Coll.* (Oct.): Cruz 47-42, Abbott 53-33 (“New Senate Poll and Other News for October 8“)
- CBS News/You Gov (Oct.): Cruz 50-44 (“Cruz Leads by 6 in First Post-Kavanaugh Poll“)
- Reform Austin (Sept.): Cruz 49-45 (“Cruz, O’Rourke Debate as New Polls Indicate Race Remains Tight“)
- Public Policy Polling (Sept.): Cruz 49-46 (“Cruz, O’Rourke Debate as New Polls Indicate Race Remains Tight“)
- Public Policy Polling (Sept.): Cruz 48-45 (“Another Day, Another Single-digit Cruz Lead“)
- Ipsos/Reuters* (Sept.): O’Rourke 47-45, Abbott 50-41 (“O’Rourke Ahead in Online-only Poll“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (Sept.): Cruz 54-45, Abbott 58-39 (“Quinnipiac Poll: Cruz by 9, Abbott by 19“)
- CBS-11/Dixie Strategies (Sept.): Cruz 46-42, Abbott 53-34 (“Another Poll Shows Slender Cruz Lead“)
- Crosswind Texas Pulse (Sept.): Cruz 47-44, Abbott 52-39 (“Another Poll Shows Slender Cruz Lead“)
- Emerson Coll.* (August): Cruz 38-37, Abbott 48-28 (“One Debate On, Another Off and Other News for August 27“)
- NBC/Marist Coll. (August): Cruz 49-45, Abbott 56-37 (“Poll: Cruz Up 4, Abbott Up 19“)
- Public Policy Polling (August): Cruz 46-42 (“Texas Drops to 30th and Other Election News for August 7“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (July): Cruz 49-43, Abbott 51-38 (“Pair of Statewide Polls Show Double-digit Leads for Abbott“)
- Texas Lyceum (July): Cruz 41-39, Abbott 47-31 (“Pair of Statewide Polls Show Double-digit Leads for Abbott“)
- Gravis (July): Cruz 51-42, Abbott 51-41 (“4 Democratic Challengers Top $1M and Other News for July 9“)
- UT/Texas Tribune (June): Cruz 41-36, Abbott 44-32 (“8 File for SD19 and Other Election News for June 25“)
- CBS/YouGov (June): Cruz 50-40 (“Gloves Off in SD19, New SEN Poll and More News for June 24“)
- End Citizens United (June): Cruz 49-43 (“Two Democrats Release Favorable Internal Polls“)
- Public Policy Polling (May): Cruz 48-42 (“Another SEN Poll and Other News for June 6“)
- Baselice (May): Cruz 48-36 (“New Baselice Survey and Election News for July 5“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (May): Cruz 50-39, Abbott 53-34 (“Poll: Double-digit Leads for Cruz, Abbott“)
- JMC Analytics (May): Cruz 47-40, Abbott 48-36 or 50-39 (“New Poll Suggests Strong Name ID for Independent Candidate“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (April): Cruz 47-44, Abbott 49-40 or 48-41 (“Quinnipiac: Cruz, Abbott Lead by Single Digits“)
We will repost this list with additional polls as we get closer to Election Day.
* We have serious reservations about the Ipsos and Emerson polls and included them in our reports, and on this list, solely because they received national news attention.
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