A new poll conducted for CNN (PDF) shows U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 52%-45%, and Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 57%-39%, among “likely voters.”

Cruz leads among male “likely voters,” 57%-41%, while O’Rourke’s 49%-47% lead among women is within the poll’s margin of error. Cruz leads among Anglos, 66%-33%, while O’Rourke leads among “Non-white likely voters,” 62%-32%.

“Likely voters” view Cruz (52/42) more favorably than O’Rourke (45/39). Only 7% of “likely voters” have “never heard of” O’Rourke. The poll found “likely voters” evenly split on President Trump’s job approval, 49/48.

The poll results also show numbers for registered voters, which include individuals not expected likely to vote. Cruz’s lead is 2 points smaller among that larger group, while Abbott’s is the same.

While the results are likely indicative of the races as a whole, the sample is questionable. A quarter of the overall respondents self-identified as Democrats, another quarter as Republicans and half described themselves as independents or members of another party. This distribution is not likely an accurate reflection of the electorate. In the 2016 general election, 34% of all voters cast a straight-party Republican ballot, 28% cast a straight-party Democratic ballot and the remaining 38% voted a full ballot.

The poll was conducted by Pennsylvania-based SSRS. Live interviewers called 1,004 Texas adults via landlines and mobile devices. Of those, 862 were registered voters and 716 were “likely voters.” It was in the field October 9-13. The poll’s stated margin of error for likely voters is ±4.5%.

Meanwhile, a poll conducted by Democratic polling firm Tulchin Research for MoveOn (PDF) shows Cruz leading O’Rourke, 49%-45%, with Libertarian nominee Neal Dikeman polling at 3%. After hearing “more information about both candidates,” O’Rourke takes a 50%-45% lead. No crosstabs were provided. Tulchin Research was the polling firm for the Bernie Sanders presidential campaign, so we consider it as we would an internal poll.

Recent polls and our reports about them:

We will repost this list with additional polls as we get closer to Election Day.

* We have serious reservations about the Ipsos and Emerson polls and included them in our reports, and on this list, solely because they received national news attention.

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