National pundit Charlie Cook has moved the seat held by U.S. Rep. John Culberson (R-Houston) to toss-up from leans Republican, citing his relatively weaker financial condition and the swing from Romney +21 to Clinton +1 in four years. CD7 was one of seven districts nationally, and the only one in Texas, to shift toward Democrats, further bolstering the party’s chances of retaking the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018.

We still consider the district to lean Republican. Statewide Republican candidates not named Donald Trump carried the district by an average of 14 points, and Culberson defeated Houston attorney James Cargas by 12 points. Culberson received 56% of the vote, which was higher than all but one of the statewide Republican candidates.

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