The campaign of Democratic candidate Joseph Kopser released its own internal poll a day after a poll conducted for the Elliott McFadden campaign showed McFadden, an Austin nonprofit executive, leading the field. The Kopser internal poll shows the Austin tech entrepreneur tied with Austin bookstore owner Derrick Crowe atop the four-candidate field “after voters hear positive profiles for each of the candidates” and Kopser taking a “comfortable 29-point lead” when voters “learn more about his policy positions.” Even at that point, 30% of respondents were still undecided, but Kopser’s 43% would almost certainly put him in first place.

Elliott McFadden


Joseph Kopser


Interestingly, the poll provides information on the “initial ask,” which is posed before any information is given to respondents about any of the candidates. More than three out of four respondents were undecided at that initial ask, which is probably more indicative of the state of the race than the results of any “informed” question. None of the four Democratic candidates had name IDs above 10%. Kopser polled last in terms of initial support and name ID, which is also interesting for a publicly released internal poll (A sponsoring candidate is typically ahead, or “closing the gap” if behind in publicly released internal polls.).

The Global Strategy Group poll of 500 “likely Democratic primary voters” was in the field December 13-18. The stated margin of error is ±4.4%. The McFadden poll 510 “likely Democratic primary voters” was conducted on December 27.

Both polls showed Austin pastor Mary Wilson – the only woman in the Democratic field – in a runoff position, at least at some point.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2018 Texas Election Source LLC