We previously took a high-level look at how local runoffs could impact the Republican runoff for SD1 and a closer look at SD24. Today we explore whether local runoffs could impact the Republican runoff for CD19 between Lubbock Mayor Glen Robertson and Lubbock university administrator Jodey Arrington. Robertson (27%) received 855 more votes than Arrington (26%) in the primary.

We estimate the impact to be negligible at best. If there is to be any advantage, it appears that Robertson would receive it, but we expect it to be largely unnoticeable.

Both candidates are from the district’s largest county, and the two largest counties – Lubbock (39%) and Taylor (20%) – represent three-fifths of all votes cast in the primary. The next largest county, Hale Co., represented just 4%. This translates into very few opportunities for local runoffs to have any significant impact on the larger race.

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