PRES: We have a little more detail on the UT/Texas Tribune poll released at midnight on Thursday. The poll shows “likey voters” give Donald Trump a 3-point lead over Hillary Clinton, 45%-42%, with minor party candidates and “someone else” collectively polling at 14%. It is the third poll to show a 3-point margin – inside the margin of error – this month.
Trump led Clinton among men, 46%-39%, and the candidates were tied, 45%-45%, among women. Trump led Clinton among Anglo voters, 57%-28%, but Clinton led among Hispanics/Latinos, 56%-33%, and among African-Americans, 95%-4%. Trump led among “independent” voters, 46%-19%.
The poll of 1,200 registered voters was in the field October 14-23, which means it was conducted entirely before early voting in person began. Its stated margin of error overall was ±2.8%. However, when poll results were limited to “likely voters,” the sample dropped to 959 and the corresponding margin of error increased to ±3.2%.
Meanwhile, Trump tweeted that Texans were not happy with the election so far: