PRES: We have a little more detail on the UT/Texas Tribune poll released at midnight on Thursday. The poll shows “likey voters” give Donald Trump a 3-point lead over Hillary Clinton, 45%-42%, with minor party candidates and “someone else” collectively polling at 14%. It is the third poll to show a 3-point margin – inside the margin of error – this month.
Trump led Clinton among men, 46%-39%, and the candidates were tied, 45%-45%, among women. Trump led Clinton among Anglo voters, 57%-28%, but Clinton led among Hispanics/Latinos, 56%-33%, and among African-Americans, 95%-4%. Trump led among “independent” voters, 46%-19%.
The poll of 1,200 registered voters was in the field October 14-23, which means it was conducted entirely before early voting in person began. Its stated margin of error overall was ±2.8%. However, when poll results were limited to “likely voters,” the sample dropped to 959 and the corresponding margin of error increased to ±3.2%.
Meanwhile, Trump tweeted that Texans were not happy with the election so far:
A lot of call-ins about vote flipping at the voting booths in Texas. People are not happy. BIG lines. What is going on?
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 27, 2016
On Facebook, Secretary of State Carlos Cascos said there was no “verified reports of machines changing votes.” Most of the reported cases appear to be problems voters encounter when they make additional marks or touches on a touchscreen straight-ticket ballot. Those additional touches can cancel the straight-ticket vote for a particular race or, depending on what the voter touched, cast the vote for another candidate. Voters have the opportunity to review, and correct, any mismarked votes before casting their electronic ballot.
HD105: The Republican Party of Texas has launched an attack microsite against Terry Meza, who is challenging Rep. Rodney Anderson (R-Grand Prairie).
HD150: A mailer that appears to be from the Michael Shawn Kelly campaign had an endorsement message from outgoing Rep. Debbie Riddle (R-Spring) who said the Democrat was “willing to put their political neck on the line.” Riddle lost her re-election bid to Valoree Swanson in the Republican primary. The mailer also includes an endorsement from former Sen. Jon Lindsay (R-Spring). The endorsements appear underneath a headline claiming “Republicans are abandoning their own candidate for the common sense conservative in this race” (Quote appears in all caps on mailer.).
CD23: U.S. Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) and former U.S. Rep. Pete Gallego (D-Alpine) debated today in San Antonio.
Meanwhile, pre-general campaign finance reports were due today (Thursday). Hurd reported raising $173K and spending $758K between October 1 and October 19. He reported having $549K on hand. For the 2015-16 cycle, Hurd has raised $3.6M and spent $3.25M. Gallego raised $169K and spent $417K. He has $183K on hand. For the cycle, Gallego has raised $1.9M and spent $1.7M..
Independent expenditures now top $8.5M, of which nearly $7.2M has been spent “opposed to” a candidate. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent $3.2M on the race, the National Republican Campaign Committee has spent $2.3M and the Congressional Leadership Fund has spent $1.7M. About $4.4M has been spent supporting Gallego or opposing Hurd. Just over $4.1M has been spent mostly opposing Gallego (Less than $150K was spent supporting Hurd.). The League of Conservation Voters has outspent the National Rifle Assoc., $113K to $14K. This race has the ninth highest amount of independent expenditures for any U.S. House seat this cycle.
Highest Independent Expenditures for a 2016 U.S. House Race
$14.6M – NV03
$13.9M – MN08
$12.2M – FL26
$12.1M – PA8
$11.4M – CO06
$10.5M – NV04
$8.7M – NY19
$8.59M – ME02
$8.52M – TX23
$8.45M – VA10