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Percent of the voting-age population (VAP) who voted for Greg Abbott or Wendy Davis in 2014 in Dallas Co. precincts where at least 75% of the population is Hispanic/Latino. That’s about one out of every 13 people of eligible voting age in those precincts.

The disparity in participation rates between Anglo and minority adults, particularly Hispanic/Latino adults, is one of the reasons that no Democrat has won statewide since 1994. In Dallas Co., every Democrat running countywide in 2014, including all of the statewide candidates, narrowly carried the county except incumbent District Attorney Craig Watkins, who lost to Susan Hawk by fewer than 3,500 votes out of more than 400K cast. Even with the Democrats’ successes in the county, gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis had just a 45K vote advantage over Greg Abbott, not even enough to overcome Abbott’s advantage in adjacent Collin Co.

We looked at voter participation in 117 precincts where Anglos comprised at least 75% of VAP, 53 precincts where African-Americans comprised at least 75% of VAP and 58 precincts where Hispanics/Latinos comprised at least 75% of VAP in the 2014 general election in Dallas Co. Hispanic/Latino participation, from registering to vote to voting, lagged severely behind that of Anglos and African-Americans in these strongly ethnic voting precincts.

Hispanic/Latino
Precincts

Percent of Voting-age Adults Registered to Vote

Percent of Registered Voters Who Voted for Abbott or Davis

Percent of Voting-age Population Who Voted for Abbott or Davis

Percent of Vote Received by Wendy Davis

Percent of Straight-ticket Vote Going to Democrats

If Hispanic/Latino and African-American voter registration rates and voter turnout rates equalled that of the Anglo precincts, and assuming no change in the percentage split of votes between Abbott and Davis, then Davis would have padded her Dallas Co. victory by nearly 35K votes in these 111 precincts where African-Americans or Hispanics/Latinos comprise three quarters or more of the population. Pull those registration rates and turnout rates across precincts with large numbers of minority voters, and Davis wins Dallas Co. by well over 100K votes, possibly by as much as 120K.

Because of the way legislative districts are drawn, ensuing Increases in Democrats’ straight-ticket voting advantage would not have had implications in state house or senate races, but there would have been impacts farther down the ballot. Just a 3 percentage point increase in African-American participation in the 53 precincts where they comprise 75% or more of VAP would have re-elected Watkins.