new Emerson College poll (pdf) of 700 “likely general election voters” shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton, 42%-36%, with the two minor party candidates receiving the support of 16% of voters. The latter figure is far above the parties’ historical performances in this state.

This is at least the fourth poll since June showing a single-digit lead for Trump. We are excluding the WaPo/SurveyMonkey “poll,” which showed a 1-point Clinton lead, because of serious methodological concerns.

According to Emerson, three quarters of those polled who voted for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in the primary intend to vote for Trump, and another 10% intend to vote for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. Just under half of those polled who voted for Bernie Sanders in the primary intend to vote for Clinton, and 21% say they will vote for Green candidate Jill Stein.

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