A new poll from Democrat-leaning Public Policy Polling (PDF) indicates U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leads U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 48%-45%, among “registered voters.” The poll was conducted for Protect Our Care, a group fighting efforts to repeal the federal Affordable Care Act.
The most interesting result from the poll is that neither candidate is, on balance, very popular. Respondents were evenly split on whether the view O’Rourke favorably (39/40) while Cruz received a slightly unfavorable (43/48) review of his job performance. President Trump’s job approval rating falls in between (47/50).
Consistent with most recent polls, this one shows a strong gender gap. O’Rourke leads among women, 48%-43%, while Cruz leads among men, 53%-41%. Women disapprove of Trump’s job performance (41/56) while men approve (53/44). Women trust Democrats more (55/41) on health care policy while men trust Republicans more (51/44). Also consistent with most recent polls, “independent” voters are on balance disapproving of Trump (44/52) and Cruz (39/50). However, Cruz narrowly leads among independents, 46%-44%.
Hispanic/Latino respondents strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance (27/71) and Cruz’s (21/60). Notably, 38% of Hispanic/Latino respondents have no opinion of O’Rourke, though those that do view him favorably (40/22). O’Rourke leads among Hispanic/Latino voters, 58%-33%.
Trump’s job performance is viewed unfavorably by voters under aged 18 to 45 (31/69), and that group prefers O’Rourke, 52%-39%.
The poll of 613 “registered voters” was in the field September 19-20. It has a stated margin of error of ±4%.
Another poll, conducted by Vox Populi (PDF), finds the race to be a tie, 46%-46%, with the remaining respondents leaning equally toward Cruz and O’Rourke. The poll of 508 “registered voters” – 308 via interactive voice response and 200 via app – was in the field September 16-18. No crosstabs were provided. The stated margin of error is ±4.4%.
Recent polls and our reports about them:
- Public Policy Polling (Sept.): Cruz 48-45 (“Another Day, Another Single-digit Cruz Lead“)
- Ipsos/Reuters* (Sept.): O’Rourke 47-45, Abbott 50-41 (“O’Rourke Ahead in Online-only Poll“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (Sept.): Cruz 54-45, Abbott 58-39 (“Quinnipiac Poll: Cruz by 9, Abbott by 19“)
- CBS-11/Dixie Strategies (Sept.): Cruz 46-42, Abbott 53-34 (“Another Poll Shows Slender Cruz Lead“)
- Crosswind Texas Pulse (Sept.): Cruz 47-44, Abbott 52-39 (“Another Poll Shows Slender Cruz Lead“)
- Emerson Coll.* (August): Cruz 38-37, Abbott 48-28 (“One Debate On, Another Off and Other News for August 27“)
- NBC/Marist Coll. (August): Cruz 49-45, Abbott 56-37 (“Poll: Cruz Up 4, Abbott Up 19“)
- Public Policy Polling (August): Cruz 46-42 (“Texas Drops to 30th and Other Election News for August 7“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (July): Cruz 49-43, Abbott 51-38 (“Pair of Statewide Polls Show Double-digit Leads for Abbott“)
- Texas Lyceum (July): Cruz 41-39, Abbott 47-31 (“Pair of Statewide Polls Show Double-digit Leads for Abbott“)
- Gravis (July): Cruz 51-42, Abbott 51-41 (“4 Democratic Challengers Top $1M and Other News for July 9“)
- UT/Texas Tribune (June): Cruz 41-36, Abbott 44-32 (“8 File for SD19 and Other Election News for June 25“)
- CBS/YouGov (June): Cruz 50-40 (“Gloves Off in SD19, New SEN Poll and More News for June 24“)
- End Citizens United (June): Cruz 49-43 (“Two Democrats Release Favorable Internal Polls“)
- Public Policy Polling (May): Cruz 48-42 (“Another SEN Poll and Other News for June 6“)
- Baselice (May): Cruz 48-36 (“New Baselice Survey and Election News for July 5“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (May): Cruz 50-39, Abbott 53-34 (“Poll: Double-digit Leads for Cruz, Abbott“)
- JMC Analytics (May): Cruz 47-40, Abbott 48-36 or 50-39 (“New Poll Suggests Strong Name ID for Independent Candidate“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (April): Cruz 47-44, Abbott 49-40 or 48-41 (“Quinnipiac: Cruz, Abbott Lead by Single Digits“)
We will repost this list with additional polls as we get closer to Election Day.
* We have serious reservations about the Ipsos and Emerson polls and included them in our reports, and on this list, solely because they received national news attention.
©2018 Texas Election Source LLC