Through three days of early voting, fewer than 1.5% of registered voters have cast ballots by mail or in person in the primary runoff election in the state’s 15 most populous counties.
Republican runoff turnout through three days is 60% below 2012 and 54% below 2014. Democratic runoff turnout through three days is 8% above 2012 and 22% above 2014.
Absentee, or ballot-by-mail, voters continue to outpace in-person voters. About 15K more early voters have cast their ballots by mail rather than in person. Through three days in 2012, 82K more early votes were cast in person than by mail, and 52K more were cast in person than by mail during the first three days in 2014.
We are projecting absentee voters to have proportionately greater influence on runoff races than in years past, which could have some implications in several of these races.
Based on their share of primary absentee votes, several candidates appear to have an edge if indeed absentee votes play a larger role in the runoffs:
- Gary Gates (RRC)
- Bryan Hughes (SD1)
- Cole Hefner (HD5)
- Ron Reynolds (HD27)
- Lynn Stucky (HD64)
- Rep. Jarvis Johnson (HD139), and
- Vicente Gonzalez (CD15).
In other races, data are not sufficient or there is not enough separation between the candidates to project an absentee-vote advantage. Details of each race are provided below.
RRC
Share of Absentee Vote
Harris Co.: Gates 71%, Christian 5%
Dallas Co.: Gates 42%, Christian 11%
Tarrant Co.: Gates 35%, Christian 29%
Collin Co.: Gates 448 36%, Christian 15%
Denton Co.: Gates 38%, Christian 17%
Williamson Co.: Gates 29%, Christian 15%
Galveston Co.: Gates 54%, Christian 13%
Brazoria Co.: Gates 46%, Christian 16%
Fort Bend Co.: 58%, Christian 14%
Though these counties comprised less than 40% of the primary vote, Christian was within 20% of Gates in only Tarrant Co.
SD1
Share of Absentee Vote
Smith Co.: Hughes 66%, Simpson 13%
Gregg Co.: Hughes 41%, Simpson 39% (Simpson’s home county)
Rusk Co.: Hughes 62%, Simpson 19%
Wood Co.: Hughes 89%, Simpson 3%
These counties represented 54% of the primary vote. Data were not available from the other counties.
SD24
Not enough data are available to draw conclusions.
HD5
Share of Absentee Vote
Smith Co.: Hefner 43%, Misenheimer 26%
Wood Co.: Hefner 63%, Wisenheimer 12%
These counties represented two thirds of the primary vote. Data were not available from the other four counties.
HD18
Not enough data are available to draw conclusions.
HD27
Share of Absentee Vote
Reynolds 61%, Bartholomew 20%
HD33
Share of Absentee Vote
Collin Co.: Keating 53%, Holland 20%
Rockwall Co.: Holland 36%, Keating 26%
HD54
Bell Co.’s absentee votes are combined with in-person votes, and no data are available from Lampasas Co.
HD64
Share of Absentee Vote
Stucky 52%, King 28%
HD73
Share of Absentee Vote
Comal: Miller 48%, Biedermann 40% (Miller’s home county)
Comal Co. represented 61% of the primary vote. Gillespie (Biedermann’s home county) and Kendall Co.’s absentee votes are combined with in-person votes.
HD120
Bexar Co.’s absentee votes are combined with in-person votes
HD128
Share of Absentee Vote
Cain 51%, Smith 46%
HD139
Share of Absentee Vote
Primary: Johnson 31%, Willis 21%
Special: Johnson 85%
Willis did not run in the special election.
CD15
Share of Absentee Vote
Hidalgo Co.: Gonzalez 47%, Palacios 18%
Hidalgo Co. represented 75% of the primary vote. Data were not available from the other counties.
CD19
Not enough data are available to draw conclusions.
