Through three days of early voting, fewer than 1.5% of registered voters have cast ballots by mail or in person in the primary runoff election in the state’s 15 most populous counties.

Republican runoff turnout through three days is 60% below 2012 and 54% below 2014. Democratic runoff turnout through three days is 8% above 2012 and 22% above 2014.

Absentee, or ballot-by-mail, voters continue to outpace in-person voters. About 15K more early voters have cast their ballots by mail rather than in person. Through three days in 2012, 82K more early votes were cast in person than by mail, and 52K more were cast in person than by mail during the first three days in 2014.

We are projecting absentee voters to have proportionately greater influence on runoff races than in years past, which could have some implications in several of these races.

Based on their share of primary absentee votes, several candidates appear to have an edge if indeed absentee votes play a larger role in the runoffs.

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