A new Ipsos poll of 992 “likely voters” (PDF) interviewed exclusively online finds U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) leading U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 47%-45%, making the first poll to show O’Rourke ahead. The poll also finds Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 50%-41%, his first single-digit lead in a poll since April.
Suffice it to say, we do not believe this is a valid assessment of the state of the race.
The initial sample of “roughly 2,000 adults” was randomly drawn from “Ipsos’s online panel …, partner online panel sources and ‘river’ sampling.” It was reduced to 992 “likely voters.” The poll has no standard margin of error. Instead, its stated credibility interval is ±3.5%. The poll was in the field September 6-14.
The partisan breakdown of “likely voters” was 47% Republican, 43% Democrat and 9% independent. The incredibly small sample size for independent voters makes their specific data points largely meaningless. The mix of respondents’ age, gender or race was not provided, and no crosstabs were provided for these characteristics. The results were weighted based on these and other characteristics, but no further information was provided.
The poll’s release comes one day after a Quinnipiac Univ. poll using landline and mobile phones found Cruz leading by 9 and Abbott by 19.
Recent polls and our reports about them:
- Ipsos/Reuters* (Sept.): O’Rourke 47-45, Abbott 50-41 (“O’Rourke Ahead in Online-only Poll“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (Sept.): Cruz 54-45, Abbott 58-39 (“Quinnipiac Poll: Cruz by 9, Abbott by 19“)
- CBS-11/Dixie Strategies (Sept.): Cruz 46-42, Abbott 53-34 (“Another Poll Shows Slender Cruz Lead“)
- Crosswind Texas Pulse (Sept.): Cruz 47-44, Abbott 52-39 (“Another Poll Shows Slender Cruz Lead“)
- Emerson Coll.* (August): Cruz 38-37, Abbott 48-28 (“One Debate On, Another Off and Other News for August 27“)
- NBC/Marist Coll. (August): Cruz 49-45, Abbott 56-37 (“Poll: Cruz Up 4, Abbott Up 19“)
- Public Policy Polling (August): Cruz 46-42 (“Texas Drops to 30th and Other Election News for August 7“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (July): Cruz 49-43, Abbott 51-38 (“Pair of Statewide Polls Show Double-digit Leads for Abbott“)
- Texas Lyceum (July): Cruz 41-39, Abbott 47-31 (“Pair of Statewide Polls Show Double-digit Leads for Abbott“)
- Gravis (July): Cruz 51-42, Abbott 51-41 (“4 Democratic Challengers Top $1M and Other News for July 9“)
- UT/Texas Tribune (June): Cruz 41-36, Abbott 44-32 (“8 File for SD19 and Other Election News for June 25“)
- CBS/YouGov (June): Cruz 50-40 (“Gloves Off in SD19, New SEN Poll and More News for June 24“)
- End Citizens United (June): Cruz 49-43 (“Two Democrats Release Favorable Internal Polls“)
- Public Policy Polling (May): Cruz 48-42 (“Another SEN Poll and Other News for June 6“)
- Baselice (May): Cruz 48-36 (“New Baselice Survey and Election News for July 5“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (May): Cruz 50-39, Abbott 53-34 (“Poll: Double-digit Leads for Cruz, Abbott“)
- JMC Analytics (May): Cruz 47-40, Abbott 48-36 or 50-39 (“New Poll Suggests Strong Name ID for Independent Candidate“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (April): Cruz 47-44, Abbott 49-40 or 48-41 (“Quinnipiac: Cruz, Abbott Lead by Single Digits“)
We will repost this list with additional polls as we get closer to Election Day.
* We have serious reservations about the Ipsos and Emerson polls and included them in our reports, and on this list, solely because they received national news attention.
©2018 Texas Election Source LLC