HD107 is held by Rep. Kenneth Sheets (R-Dallas), who is seeking his fourth term. He is opposed by Dallas attorney Victoria Neave. There are no minor party candidates in the race. Neither candidate had a primary opponent, so the latest campaign finance information available is from January. As it is configured today, HD107 leans Republican, but it tends to be more competitive in presidential election years. In 2012, Sheets won re-election against former Rep. Robert Miklos, 51%-49%. Two years ago, Sheets defeated Carol Donovan, 55%-45%. The reason for this is fairly straightforward. Twice as many people cast straight Democratic votes in presidential election years than in gubernatorial election years in HD107. The district seems to be trending Democratic, but slowly. Democratic straight-ticket voting – measured either as the number of votes or as a percentage of all votes cast – has risen significantly since 2000 while Republican straight-ticket voting has remained largely flat. Estimates of the number of straight-ticket and full-ballot votes cast in what is now HD107 in the 2000, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections are shown below. The actual number of those votes cast in HD107 in the 2012 presidential election is also shown below.
2000
- Straight Republican – 17,800 81%
- Straight Democratic – 10,600 48%
- Full Ballot – 21,500 98%
%
Straight Republican
%
Straight Democratic
2004
- Straight Republican – 22,000 100%
- Straight Democratic – 14,200 65%
- Full Ballot – 20,500 93%
%
Straight Republican
%
Straight Democratic
2008
- Straight Republican – 17,900 81%
- Straight Democratic – 16,900 77%
- Full Ballot – 21,900 99%
%
Straight Republican
%
Straight Democratic
2012
- Straight Republican – 18,262 83%
- Straight Democratic – 16,422 75%
- Full Ballot – 17,094 78%
%
Straight Republican
%
Straight Democratic
- about 52K people vote in HD112 (same turnout as 2012)
- about two-thirds of those voters cast a straight-ticket ballot, and
- Republicans have a 1K-vote advantage (same advantage as 2008).
If Democratic turnout more closely mirrors 2008 than 2012, then Neave’s winning a smaller share of full-ballot voters would be enough to flip the seat. We will explore this race further later this summer. We will also publish similar analyses for other competitive or potentially competitive races.