SD19 special: Eight candidates filed for the July 31 special election to fill the unexpired term of former Sen. Carlos Uresti (D-San Antonio):
- Jesse Jay Alaniz (R), a San Antonio retiree and former Harlandale ISD board president
- Pete Flores (R), a Pleasanton retired game warden and 2016 Republican nominee for the seat, losing to Uresti, 56%-40%
- Former Rep. and U.S. Rep. Pete Gallego (D-Alpine), who represented all or part of 15 of the district’s 17 counties for one congressional term and nine of the counties during his tenure in the House
- Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio)
- Charlie Urbina Jones (D), a San Antonio attorney and longtime Democratic activist
- Carlos Antonio Raymond (R), a San Antonio real estate agent
- Tomas Uresti (D-San Antonio), who lost his re-election bid in the Democratic primary; and
- Tony Valdivia (L), a San Antonio senior reporting analyst.
The winner of the special (runoff) election will serve during the upcoming legislative session and presumably will run for re-election for a two-year term in 2020, then again in 2022 after legislative districts are redrawn. There is a not quite 50/50 chance that the seat will be on the ballot again two years later, depending on the number in the envelope the incumbent draws in January 2023.
UT/Texas Tribune Poll: A new Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll conducted by YouGov asked respondents several horse race questions. It found:
- SEN: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leads U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 41%-36%, with Libertarian candidate Neal Dikeman receiving 2%, and 17% are undecided.
- GOV: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 44%-32%, with Libertarian candidate Mark Tippetts at 4%, and 16% are undecided.
- LTGOV: Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leads Mike Collier (D), 37%-31%, with Libertarian candidate Kerry McKennon at 4%, and 23% are undecided.
- AG: Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton’s (R) lead over Justin Nelson is within the margin of error. Paxton leads Nelso, 32%-31%, with Libertarian candidate Michael Ray Harris at 6%, and 26% are undecided.
In the generic ballot questions, Democratic candidates are within one point, 43%-42%, of Republican candidates for legislative seats and two points, 43%-41%, for congressional seats.
We will comment further on the poll once its crosstabs are released later this week.
CD21 open: U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) endorsed Joseph Kopser (D).
CD27 special: Early voting concludes tomorrow (Tuesday) for the special election to fill the unexpired term of former U.S. Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi). In Victoria Co., 3,526 have voted early so far in person or by mail, which is already ahead of the number of early votes cast in the Democratic (641) and Republican (2,530) runoffs for the seat. In Nueces Co., 8,869 people have voted early in person or by mail, which is also already ahead of the total early votes cast in the primary runoffs.
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