We have explored the shifts in straight-ticket voting in several of the state’s largest counties and found significant Democratic gains, particularly in Republican-held state House seats, with some exceptions, notably in districts held by African-American Democrats. Today we look at 16 of the Democrat-held House districts of South and far West Texas.

With one exception, Democrats increased their straight-ticket voting advantage over 2012. Outside of El Paso Co., those increases were significantly smaller than the ones seen in the state’s other urban and suburban counties. Nonetheless, Democratic candidates for these House seats enjoyed at least a 7,500-vote advantage in straight-ticket voting this year.

Despite losing ground on balance, the number of straight-ticket Republican votes increased in 13 of the 16 districts by an average of more than 1,200 votes. The exceptions were HD75 (115 fewer), HD77 (132 fewer) and HD79 (467 fewer), all in El Paso Co.

Across all 16 House districts and their 31 counties, Democrats’ added nearly 35K votes to their straight-ticket vote advantage over 2012. To put some perspective on that, this increase is smaller than the surge in straight-ticket Democratic voting in Travis Co. alone, where straight-ticket Democratic voters added a net 40K votes to the party’s 2012 advantage.

The following charts show the number of straight-ticket Democratic and Republican votes cast in 2016, the change in straight-ticket advantage from 2012 to 2016 and the percentage of the head-to-head vote received by the last two Republican presidential nominees in each district.

Cameron County

HD37 – Rep. Rene Oliveira (D-Brownsville)

  • Straight Republican – 4,670 21% 21%
  • Straight Democratic – 14,763 13% 13%

Change in Democratic advantage: +1,703 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

HD38 – Rep. Eddie Lucio III (D-Brownsville)

  • Straight Republican – 6,022 27% 27%
  • Straight Democratic – 16,363 73% 73%

Change in Democratic advantage: +1,471 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

El Paso County

HD75 – Rep. Mary Gonzalez (D-Clint)

  • Straight Republican – 4,974 22% 22%
  • Straight Democratic – 21,457 96% 96%

Change in Democratic advantage: +6,335 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

HD76 – Rep. Cesar Blanco (D-El Paso)

  • Straight Republican – 3,775 17% 17%
  • Straight Democratic – 22,333 100% 100%

Change in Democratic advantage: +3,654 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

HD77 – Rep.-elect Lina Ortega (D-El Paso)

  • Straight Republican – 5,580 25% 25%
  • Straight Democratic – 18,550 83% 83%

Change in Democratic advantage: +4,597 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

HD78 – Rep. Joe Moody (D-El Paso)

  • Straight Republican – 9,439 42% 42%
  • Straight Democratic – 19,211 86% 86%

Change in Democratic advantage: +4,704 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

HD79 – Rep. Joe Pickett (D-El Paso)

  • Straight Republican – 5,827 26% 26%
  • Straight Democratic – 18,988 85% 85%

Change in Democratic advantage: +4,272 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

Hidalgo County

HD36 – Rep. Sergio Muñoz Jr. (D-Edinburg)

  • Straight Republican – 5,640 25% 25%
  • Straight Democratic – 21,644 97% 97%

Change in Democratic advantage: +2,862 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

HD39 – Rep. Mando Martinez (D-Weslaco)

  • Straight Republican – 5,933 27% 27%
  • Straight Democratic – 19,781 89% 89%

Change in Democratic advantage: +37 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

HD40 – Rep. Terry Canales (D-Premont)

  • Straight Republican – 4,932 22% 22%
  • Straight Democratic – 17,094 77% 77%

Change in Democratic advantage: +1,087 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

HD41 – Rep. Bobby Guerra (D-Mission)

  • Straight Republican – 9,482 42% 42%
  • Straight Democratic – 18,127 81% 81%

Change in Democratic advantage: +2,836 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

Webb County

HD42 – Rep. Richard Raymond (D-Laredo)

  • Straight Republican – 4,199 19% 19%
  • Straight Democratic – 20,168 90% 90%

Change in Democratic advantage: +1,574 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

Multi-county Districts

HD31 – Rep. Ryan Guillen (D-Rio Grande City)

  • Straight Republican – 8,047 36% 36%
  • Straight Democratic – 15,733 70% 70%

Change in Democratic advantage: -3,587 votes*

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

HD35 – Rep. Oscar Longoria (D-Mission)

  • Straight Republican – 6,270 28% 28%
  • Straight Democratic – 15,950 71% 71%

Change in Democratic advantage: +683 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

HD74 – Rep. Poncho Nevarez (D-Eagle Pass)

  • Straight Republican – 6,048** 27% 27%
  • Straight Democratic – 14,043** 63% 63%

Change in Democratic advantage: +1,137 votes***

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

HD80 – Rep. Tracy King (D-Batesville)

  • Straight Republican – 5,432 24% 24%
  • Straight Democratic – 17,868 80% 80%

Change in Democratic advantage: +1,194 votes

%

Trump 2016

%

Romney 2012

* excludes Brooks, Kenedy and McMullen Cos., for which 2012 data were not available.
** excludes Hudspeth, Kinney and Loving Cos., for which 2016 data were not available.
*** excludes Brewster, Culberson, Hudspeth, Kinney, Loving and Presidio Cos., for which 2012 data were not available.

El Paso Co. Democrats increased their party’s straight-ticket voting advantage by nearly 24K votes over 2012. Just over 100K straight-ticket Democratic votes were cast, an increase of nearly 24K over 2012. Countywide, the number of straight-ticket Republican votes was flat at just over 29K. Donald Trump received slightly fewer votes in El Paso Co. than Mitt Romney in 2012, and Hillary Clinton received nearly 35K more votes than President Obama.

In Hidalgo Co., the number of straight-ticket Republican votes cast countywide increased 34% from 2012 to nearly 29K, and nearly 9K more Hidalgo Co. residents voted for Trump than for Romney in 2012 (Their head-to-head percentages against their Democratic rivals were the same.). Clinton received about 20K more votes than Obama, and the number of straight-ticket Democratic votes rose 20% from 2012.

In Cameron Co., every additional straight-ticket Republican vote over the 2012 total was more than matched by two and a half additional straight-ticket Democratic votes. Yet, the Democrats’ countywide advantage grew by fewer than 3,500 votes. Trump received 1% less than Romney head-to-head against their respective Democratic rivals.

Aside from the largest counties in South and far West Texas, Republicans gained significant ground on the Democrats’ straight-ticket advantage across the regions. In the 10 counties comprising HD31, Republicans carved more than 3,500 votes off the Democrats’ advantage, posting gains in half of the eight counties for which we have sufficient data.

One of the most surprising results occurred in Duval Co., a traditional bastion of Democratic strength. The number of straight-ticket Democratic votes fell 23% from the 2012 total, and the number of straight-ticket Republican votes rose 27%. Trump received 32% of the vote head-to-head against Clinton, significantly improving on Romney’s 23% four years earlier. Starr Co. also saw a significant shift toward the Republicans as straight-ticket Democratic vote totals fell 23% and straight-ticket Republican votes shot up 68%.

In HD80, Republicans cut the Democrats’ straight-ticket vote advantages in Dimmit, Frio, Zapata and Zavala Cos. Trump fared slightly better than Romney in the district. Outside of Webb Co., Trump received over 40% of the vote head-to-head against Clinton, which is about 4 points better than Romney in 2012.

A Republican candidate ran for only three of the 16 seats covered here. Reps. Terry Canales (D-Premont) and Joe Moody (D-El Paso) got roughly the same percentage against their opponents as Clinton received against Trump head-to-head. Rep. Bobby Guerra (D-Mission) received about 5 percentage points less than Clinton in his district. Clinton received 55% of the head-to-head vote from full-ballot voters, but Guerra received just 42% against his opponent.

About 4,500 more straight-ticket Democratic votes were cast in Guerra’s HD41 than in 2012, and Democrats extended their straight-ticket advantage in the district by nearly 3K votes. Straight-ticket votes accounted for 73% of Guerra’s vote total. If the district sees a significant drop in straight-ticket Democratic voters in the gubernatorial cycle, then HD41 could become a race to watch in 2018.

Otherwise, these districts would appear to be safely Democratic through the end of the decade. Whether the region becomes a greater asset to Democrats running statewide will depend on voters’ reactions to the Trump Administration’s early years and the quality of candidates running in 2018.