A surge of Democratic voters set new records for straight-ticket voting in Dallas Co. Meanwhile, a drop in the number of straight-ticket Republican voters contributed to the largest-ever countywide advantage in straight-ticket voting in the modern era.
As a result, Hillary Clinton carried every Dallas Co. House district, including the eight districts won by Mitt Romney in 2012. Republican incumbents won re-election in seven of those eight districts.
Straight-ticket voting accounted for two thirds of all votes cast in Dallas Co. this general election, a slight dip from 2012 and a slight increase from 2008.
317K straight-ticket Democratic votes in this year’s general election, an increase of 9.5% over the previous record set in 2008 and nearly beaten in 2012. Dallas Co. Democrats have had a straight-ticket voting advantage countywide for every presidential election since at least 1988, the earliest election for which straight-ticket vote totals were separately reported. That advantage was less than 17K votes each election until a surge of straight-ticket Democratic voters pushed it to more than 100K in 2008. It rolled back slightly to 92K in 2012 before swelling again in 2016 to more than 134K countywide.
Dallas Co. Straight-ticket Vote Totals, 1988-2016
Democratic
2016 – 317,100 (42.1%)
2008 – 289,551 (39.2%)
2012 – 289,243 (40.7%)
2004 – 228,549 (33.2%)
2000 – 186,230 (30.4%)
1996 – 152,261 (27.4%)
1988 – 152,022 (25.2%)
1992 – 130,456 (19.7%)
Republican
2004 – 215,618 (31.4%)
2012 – 196,786 (27.7%)
2008 – 187,980 (25.5%)
2000 – 184,054 (30.0%)
2016 – 182,784 (24.2%)
1996 – 141,399 (25.4%)
1988 – 135,420 (22.4%)
1992 – 116,902 (17.7%)
This 134K-vote advantage is higher than any other county in the state, including more populous Harris Co., where a record 471K straight-ticket Democratic votes were cast, 70K more than the Republicans.
Voters in Dallas Co. cast 183K straight-ticket Republican votes, fewest in any presidential election there since 1996. The number of straight-ticket Republican votes fell 7% from 2012 and finished 15% below the 2004 record. Straight-ticket Republican voting in 2014 experienced a similar 10.5% decline from 2010.
Democrats’ advantage countywide increased by 42K votes, but those votes did not come from Democrat-held districts. Nearly 94% of the net increase in the Democrats’ countywide straight-ticket voting advantage came from Texas House districts represented today by Republicans. The shift was greater than 4K votes in seven of those eight districts, and Democratic candidates had (or would have had) an advantage in straight-ticket voting in five of them. In all eight districts, straight-ticket Republican votes declined and Democratic votes increased.
The toggles below show the 2012 and 2016 presidential vote margins and straight-ticket voting advantages for each Dallas Co. House district.
Presidential Vote Margin by District
HD100 – Rep. Eric Johnson (D)
2012 – Obama +24,939
2016 – Clinton +25,150
HD102 – Rep. Linda Koop (R)
2012 – Romney +4,242
2016 – Clinton +5,434
HD103 – Rep. Rafael Anchia (D)
2012 – Obama +12,601
2016 – Clinton +19,891
HD104 – Rep. Roberto Alonzo (D)
2012 – Obama +13,569
2016 – Clinton +18,153
HD105 – Rep. Rodney Anderson (R)
2012 – Romney +2,518
2016 – Clinton +4,041
HD107 – Rep. Kenneth Sheets (R) – defeated
2012 – Romney +2,592
2016 – Clinton +4,970
HD108 – Rep. Morgan Meyer (R)
2012 – Romney +13,533
2016 – Clinton +4,855
HD109 – Rep. Helen Giddings (D)
2012 – Obama +42,063
2016 – Clinton +42,330
HD110 – Rep. Toni Rose (D)
2012 – Obama +29,816
2016 – Clinton +26,796
HD111 – Rep. Yvonne Davis (D)
2012 – Obama +32,922
2016 – Clinton +33,102
HD112 – Rep. Angie Chen Button (R)
2012 – Romney +5,913
2016 – Clinton +654
HD113 – Rep. Cindy Burkett (R)
2012 – Romney +3,196
2016 – Clinton +1,031
HD114 – Rep. Jason Villalba (R)
2012 – Romney +7,613
2016 – Clinton +5,939
HD115 – Rep. Matt Rinaldi (R)
2012 – Romney +6,542
2016 – Clinton +4,634
Straight-ticket Vote Advantage by District
HD100 – Rep. Eric Johnson (D)
2012 – Democrats +20,996
2016 – Democrats +19,435
HD102 – Rep. Linda Koop (R)
2012 – Republicans +3,739
2016 – Democrats +1,099
HD103 – Rep. Rafael Anchia (D)
2012 – Democrats +9,212
2016 – Democrats +13,756
HD104 – Rep. Roberto Alonzo (D)
2012 – Democrats +11,315
2016 – Democrats +14,565
HD105 – Rep. Rodney Anderson (R)
2012 – Republicans +943
2016 – Democrats +3,344
HD107 – Rep. Kenneth Sheets (R) – defeated
2012 – Republicans +1,842
2016 – Democrats +2,704
HD108 – Rep. Morgan Meyer (R)
2012 – Republicans +11,742
2016 – Republicans +5,994
HD109 – Rep. Helen Giddings (D)
2012 – Democrats +34,108
2016 – Democrats +34,219
HD110 – Rep. Toni Rose (D)
2012 – Democrats +26,254
2016 – Democrats +23,175
HD111 – Rep. Yvonne Davis (D)
2012 – Democrats +27,175
2016 – Democrats +26,581
HD112 – Rep. Angie Chen Button (R)
2012 – Republicans +4,586
2016 – Republicans +438
HD113 – Rep. Cindy Burkett (R)
2012 – Republicans +2,243
2016 – Democrats +975
HD114 – Rep. Jason Villalba (R)
2012 – Republicans +6,039
2016 – Republicans +940
HD115 – Rep. Matt Rinaldi (R)
2012 – Republicans +5,471
2016 – Democrats +1,835
The biggest shift occurred in HD115, where Rep. Matt Rinaldi (R-Irving) held off Democratic challenger Dorotha Ocker by just over 1,100 votes in the night’s most surprisingly close race. In 2012, Rinaldi’s predecessor enjoyed nearly a 5,500-vote advantage in straight-ticket voting. In 2016, Rinaldi overcame a deficit of 1,835 votes by winning 57% of the full-ballot vote. Overall, the straight-ticket advantage in the district shifted more than 7,300 votes.
In HD108, represented by Rep. Morgan Meyer (R-Dallas), and HD114, represented by Rep. Jason Villalba (R-Dallas), the shift toward the Democrats exceeded 5K votes. In both districts, Republicans still had straight-ticket voting advantages.
Rep.-elect
Victoria
Neave
Challenger Victoria Neave ousted Rep. Kenneth Sheets (R-Dallas) in HD107 in part because of a 2,700-vote advantage in straight-ticket voting. In 2012, Sheets had an advantage of 1,842 votes. Sheets won 55% of the full-ballot vote, making up almost 1,900 votes but still leaving him short of Neave’s total.
Rep. Rodney Anderson (R-Grand Prairie) overcame a 3,344-vote deficit in straight-ticket voting to retain his seat against Terry Meza by 120 votes. Anderson received 62% of the full-ballot vote.
The existing Democratic advantage increased in HD103 and HD104, held by Reps. Rafael Anchia (D-Dallas) and Roberto Alonzo (D-Dallas) respectively. In HD103, the number of straight-ticket Republican votes increased slightly from 2012, but straight-ticket Democratic voting increased 37%. In HD104, straight-ticket Republican voting declined slightly, and straight-ticket Democratic voting increased 18%.
Just over 40% of all straight-ticket Democratic votes were cast in the four districts held by African-American Democrats: HD100, HD109, HD110 and HD111. However, fewer straight-ticket Democratic votes were cast in each of those districts compared to 2012. Republican straight-ticket voters made slight gains in three of these districts, but they remain among the most overwhelmingly Democratic districts in the state.
Once results are canvassed, we’ll take a closer look at shifts within individual precincts with a particular eye on precincts where Hispanics/Latinos comprise a significant portion of the voting-age population.
