We previously took a high-level look at how local runoffs could impact the two Republican races for open Senate seats, SD1 and SD24. Today we take a closer look at SD24.
Dawn
Buckingham
Rep. Susan
King
Local runoffs could give Rep. Susan King (R-Abilene) a slight boost over Dawn Buckingham, at least based on their head-to-head results in those counties. However, both candidates will experience some “missed opportunities,” particularly in their home counties, because of the way races played out on primary night.
There will be some kind of runoff for legislative or county office in all but four of SD24’s counties. These runoffs should boost turnout in those precincts relative to precincts across the district without local runoffs. Both candidates should receive some benefits from this effect.
Helping King:
- There is a county commissioner’s runoff in Taylor Co., which is King’s home county (She won the county outright with 55%, Buckingham received 16%).
- There are also county commissioner runoffs in Bandera (King 35-14), Blanco (King 23-19), Brown (King 35-23), Callahan (King 46-18) and Kerr (King 33-19) Cos.
- Brown Co., which is the sixth largest in the district, also has a runoff for sheriff.
- There is a tax assessor-collector runoff in Mills Co. (King 31-22).
- There are no Republican runoffs in Buckingham’s home, Travis Co. (Buckingham 43-15).
Helping Buckingham:
- Part of Bell Co. has the HD54 runoff, and another part has a county commissioner runoff (Buckingham 31-15). The HD54 runoff also includes Lampasas Co. (Buckingham 27-17).
- There are countywide and commissioner’s runoffs in Coryell (Buckingham 24-17), Gillespie (Buckingham 26-21) and Llano (Buckingham 23-21) Cos.
- There are multiple commissioner and justice of the peace runoffs in Burnet Co. (Buckingham 26-19).
- There is no legislative runoff in Taylor Co. (King 55-16) because Stan Lambert won the seat outright, and Michael Bob Starr, who is from Abilene and ran strongly there, did not make the CD19 runoff.
There are no legislative or local runoffs in Comanche (King 35-24), Hamilton (King 24-17), San Saba (Buckingham 24-19) or Travis (Buckingham 43-15) Cos. On balance, the lack of runoffs in these counties also helps King.
King and Buckingham combined for just over half of the primary vote. Four other candidates combined to receive 48%, and two of them fared better than the runoff participants in some of these counties. A lot will depend on the extent to which the fallen candidates’ supporters go to the polls and who they support, whether they live in a local runoff area or not.
There is no slam dunk when it comes to local runoffs helping one candidate or the other here, but it appears to us that King probably gets a slight edge based on where they are (and aren’t).
Disclosure: Jeff Blaylock, publisher of Texas Election Source, is an active patient of Dr. Dawn Buckingham.
