Disclosure: Jeff Blaylock, publisher of Texas Election Source, is a patient of Dr. Dawn Buckingham, one of the candidates in this race.
Retiring Sen. Troy Fraser’s (R-Horseshoe Bay) last primary opponent received just 19% of the vote in 1996. His decision to retire, rather than seek re-election, has opened the 17-county district to a competitive race for the first time in more than two decades. Six Republican hopefuls have crisscrossed the district appearing at candidate forums and spreading similar conservative messages as they try to connect with primary voters:
- Dawn Buckingham, a Lakeway ophthalmologist and former Lake Travis ISD trustee
- Jon Cobb, a Bee Cave concrete businessman
- Ryan Downton, a Salado healthcare executive who ran unsuccessfully for HD47 in Travis Co. in 2012
- Susan King, an Abilene registered nurse serving her 5th term in the House
- Brent Mayes, a Fredericksburg physician, and
- Reed Williams, a Burnet grape grower and former San Antonio council member.
Collectively, they have raised a little under $900K and loaned themselves $3.2 million. King has the most cash on hand with $832K, followed by Williams ($535K), Buckingham ($495K) and Cobb ($443K). Buckingham and Cobb have raised and spent the most through January 21. Click the accordions below for detailed campaign finance information.
Dawn Buckingham
Campaign Finance Summary
$495,182 – Cash on hand
$13,161 – Contributions (Jan 1-21)
$248,677 – Expenditures (Jan 1-21)
$374,766 – Total contributions (2015-16 cycle)
$619,650 – Total expenditures (2015-16 cycle)
$772,826 – Outstanding loan principal
Geographic Sources of Contributions
$131,345 – Austin (35%)
$12,550 – Dallas (3%)
$11,500 – Arlington (3%)
$10,270 – Brownwood (3%)
$10,250 – Marble Falls (3%)
$66,820 – Other Texas cities (18%)
$131,533 – Outside Texas (35%)
Contributions from District Zip Codes
$75,663 – Donors in district zip codes (20%)
$298,355 – Donors outside district (80%)
122 donors within district giving $1K or less
Types of Contributions
$331,359 – Individuals (89%)
$42,659 – PACs and other entities (11%)
$358,000 – Cash (96%)
$16,268 – In Kind (4%)
Top Contributors
$100,000 – Robert Buckingham
$50,000 – Ellyn Yacktman
$13,159 – Constituent Focus PAC
$10,500 – Alan Harper
$10,000 – Border Health PAC, Gary Martin
$9,538 – Stephan Kelly
$6,563 – J.D. Dickinson
$5,000 – Thomas Allen Lucas, Rural Friends of Texas Electric Cooperatives PAC
$3,500 – Jay Carson, George Thorne
$2,500 – Eye PAC, HillCo PAC, Stacy Hock, Kenneth Jastrow, Texas Society of Anesthesiologists PAC
Jon Cobb
Campaign Finance Summary
$442,794 – Cash on hand
$36,975 – Contributions (Jan 1-21)
$186,264 – Expenditures (Jan 1-21)
$309,490 – Total contributions (2015-16 cycle)
$393,946 – Total expenditures (2015-16 cycle)
$500,000 – Outstanding loan principal
Geographic Sources of Contributions
$132,725 – Dripping Springs (43%)
$50,205 – Austin (16%)
$49,075 – San Marcos (16%)
$19,200 – Temple (6%)
$10,000 – Hico (3%)
$40,985 – Other Texas cities (13%)
$7,300 – Outside Texas (2%)
Contributions from District Zip Codes
$75,665 – Donors in district zip codes (24%)
$233,825 – Donors outside district (76%)
59 donors within district giving $1K or less
Types of Contributions
$285,740 – Individuals (92%)
$23,750 – PACs and other entities (8%)
$309,490 – Cash (100%)
$0 – In Kind (0%)
Top Contributors
$100,000 – Robert Seale III
$25,150 – Albert Cobb
$20,000 – Gaye Cobb, Mark Nussbaum
$10,000 – C.C. Carlton Industries, Michael Dunlap, Marihelen Gilley, Drayton McLane Jr., Greg Sones
$6,000 – Timothy Van Ackeren
$5,000 – Tucker Bridwell, Oldcastle Materials PAC
$3,000 – Travis Gilpin
$2,750 – Doug Ferrell
$2,500 – Keith Crawford, Stephen Gurasich, James McKinney, Donald Rains, Michael Rood, Texas Aggregates & Concrete Assoc. PAC
Ryan Downton
Campaign Finance Summary
$213,928 – Cash on hand
$5,350 – Contributions (Jan 1-21)
$123,374 – Expenditures (Jan 1-21)
$74,185 – Total contributions (2015-16 cycle)
$359,754 – Total expenditures (2015-16 cycle)
$560,250 – Outstanding loan principal
Geographic Sources of Contributions
$29,500 – Dallas (40%)
$10,500 – Austin (14%)
$10,000 – Georgetown (13%)
$10,000 – San Antonio (13%)
$5,000 – Cedar Park (7%)
$7,635 – Other Texas cities (10%)
$1,550 – Outside Texas (2%)
Contributions from District Zip Codes
$5,885 – Donors in district zip codes (8%)
$68,300 – Donors outside district (92%)
3 donors within district giving $1K or less
Types of Contributions
$57,185 – Individuals (77%)
$17,000 – PACs and other entities (23%)
$74,185 – Cash (100%)
$0 – In Kind (0%)
Top Contributors
$10,000 – DML Healthcare Management, Keith Owens
$5,000 – Michael Austin, Foot Specialists of Cedar Park, Jamie Hellman, Amir Mortazavi, Seymon Narasov, Cary Rossel, Jonathan Sheinberg, Kelly Tjelmeland
$2,500 – Nicholas Austin, Tom Hellman
Rep. Susan King
Campaign Finance Summary
$831,700 – Cash on hand
$33,254 – Contributions (Jan 1-21)
$55,447 – Expenditures (Jan 1-21)
$44,324 – Total contributions (2015-16 cycle)
$224,393 – Total expenditures (2015-16 cycle)
$520,000 – Outstanding loan principal
Geographic Sources of Contributions
$27,079 – Abilene (61%)
$5,000 – Waxahachie (11%)
$3,650 – Austin (8%)
$2,540 – Houston (6%)
$1,000 – Westlake Hills (2%)
$4,905 – Other Texas cities (11%)
$50 – Outside Texas (<1%)
Contributions from District Zip Codes
$25,729 – Donors in district zip codes (58%)
$18,495 – Donors outside district (42%)
122 donors within district giving $1K or less
Types of Contributions
$37,274 – Individuals (84%)
$6,950 – PACs and other entities (16%)
$44,224 – Cash (100%)
$0 – In Kind (0%)
Top Contributors
$5,000 – Former Rep. Jim Pitts
$2,500 – Friends of Baylor Medical Center
Brent Mayes
Campaign Finance Summary
$122,805 – Cash on hand
$485 – Contributions (Jan 1-21)
$76,710 – Expenditures (Jan 1-21)
$4,469 – Total contributions (2015-16 cycle)
$221,063 – Total expenditures (2015-16 cycle)
$325,000 – Outstanding loan principal
Geographic Sources of Contributions
$2,163 – Fredericksburg (58%)
$500 – Kerrville (13%)
$250 – Temple (7%)
$202 – Harper (5%)
$100 – Austin (3%)
$499 – Other Texas cities (13%)
$0 – Outside Texas (0%)
Contributions from District Zip Codes
$3,314 – Donors in district zip codes (89%)
$400 – Donors outside district (11%)
20 donors within district giving $1K or less
Types of Contributions
$3,614 – Individuals (97%)
$100 – PACs and other entities (3%)
$3,714 – Cash (100%)
$0 – In Kind (0%)
Top Contributors
$282 – Connie Stephens
$272 – Sherryl Davis
$250 – Tim Barsch, Roxanne Franzen, Rick Schroeder, Robert Summers
$202 – Mike Weaver
Reed Williams
Campaign Finance Summary
$534,574 – Cash on hand
$650 – Contributions (Jan 1-21)
$10,827 – Expenditures (Jan 1-21)
$80,505 – Total contributions (2015-16 cycle)
$116,506 – Total expenditures (2015-16 cycle)
$550,741 – Outstanding loan principal
Geographic Sources of Contributions
$74,725 – San Antonio (93%)
$2,500 – Boerne (3%)
$1,000 – Austin (1%)
$1,000 – New Braunfels (1%)
$650 – Gatesville (<1%)
$600 – Other Texas cities (<1%)
$0 – Outside Texas (0%)
Contributions from District Zip Codes
$1,050 – Donors in district zip codes (1%)
$79,425 – Donors outside district (99%)
8 donors within district giving $1K or less
Types of Contributions
$73,225 – Individuals (91%)
$7,250 – PACs and other entities (9%)
$80,475 – Cash (100%)
$0 – In Kind (5%)
Top Contributors
$10,000 – Heriberto Guerra Jr., H.B. Zachry Jr.
$5,000 – Eugene Dawson, Sam Dawson, Red McCombs
$2,500 – William Greehey, Gordon Hartman, Bill Klesse, Margie Klesse, NuStar PAC, Valero PAC, Charles Wender
The candidates agree on most issues more than they disagree, and the race may come down to little differences.
Cobb and Downton have criticized Buckingham and Williams for their campaign contributions to Democrats. Democratic candidates received approximately 8% of the money Buckingham personally contributed between 2008 and 2014. Williams’ only Democratic giving during that timeframe was a pair of 2010 donations to the Northwest Democrats of Bexar Co. Other contributions cited by Cobb occurred prior to 2008.
Five of the candidates support raising water rates for agricultural users. King questioned the plan, fearful of its impact on farmers and consumers. The issue is indicative of a geographic divide between the sole candidate from the drier northern part of the district and her five rivals from the Hill County and Central Texas.
Mayes has endorsements from several influential conservative leaders and groups, but their support has not (yet) yielded the large contributions that often accompany such endorsements. In fact, Mayes has raised the least and loaned himself the least money of the candidates. Yet, this might be a race where being the most conservative candidate may not be an advantage, at least until the runoff.
SD24 voters tend to be more moderate – though solidly Republican – than most other rural districts. In the 2012 Republican primary for U.S. Senate, David Dewhurst received 49.5% of the vote, 5% above his statewide performance, while Ted Cruz received 29.6%, 4.5% below his statewide performance. Dewhurst carried SD24 in the runoff, 52%-48%, faring nearly 10% better than in the state as a whole.
In the 2014 Republican primary for LTGOV, Dewhurst finished first with 38%, 8% above his statewide performance. Dan Patrick came in second with 32%, 9 points below his statewide performance. Patrick carried SD24 in the runoff, 61%-39%, but Dewhurst fared 4% better than the rest of the state.
Geography does not appear to give anyone an advantage. Bell Co. is the district’s largest, but it only represents one fifth of primary voters. Only two other counties – Kerr and Taylor – comprise more than 10% of voters.
Downton is from Bell Co., but his last race for office was in Travis Co., though the part of the county that is part of SD24. King is from Taylor Co. Williams is from Burnet Co., but his last race for office was in Bexar Co., which is not part of the district. Buckingham and Cobb are from Travis Co. Mayes is from Gillespie Co.
- Bell Co. 21%
- Taylor Co. 11%
- Kerr Co. 11%
- Burnet Co. 8%
- Travis Co. 7%
- Brown Co. 6%
- Coryell Co. 6%
- Gillespie Co. 6%
- Bandera Co. 5%
- Llano Co. 5%
- Other 7 counties 15%
Electoral history likewise does not appear to give anyone an advantage. King has been elected by HD71 voters five times. She won Taylor Co., 68%-32%, in a contested 2014 primary and has otherwise been unopposed in the primary since her narrow 2006 runoff election victory. Buckingham was unopposed in her 2014 race for Lake Travis ISD trustee. Downton received 28% of the vote in SD24 precincts during his 2012 primary race against Rep. Paul Workman (R-Austin) for HD47. The other candidates do not appear to have run for public office within the district.
Being the only sitting House member in the race gives King a historical advantage. Since 1999, sitting House members looking to move up into the Senate have won 14 of 19 races when not facing another sitting House member (Sitting House members have faced each other in four Senate races since 1999.). However, she entered the race late, missed some campaigning time for medical reasons and is likely to be targeted by grassroots conservative groups (Empower Texans gave her an “F” for the last session.).
Fate of Sitting Representatives Seeking Senate Seats Since 1999
2015 – SD26: Jose Menendez defeats Trey Martinez Fischer in special runoff election, 59%-41%
2014 – SD18: Lois Kolkhorst wins special election with 56%
2014 – SD28: Charles Perry wins special election with 53%
2014 – SD4: Brandon Creighton defeats Steve Toth in special runoff election, 67%-33%
2014 – SD8: Van Taylor unopposed in primary
2013 – SD6: Carol Alvarado loses special runoff election, 53%-47%
2012 – SD5: Charles Schwertner wins primary, 75%-25%
2012 – SD8: Ken Paxton unopposed in primary
2012 – SD9: Kelly Hancock defeats Todd Smith in primary, 65%-35%
2012 – SD11: Larry Taylor wins primary with 58%
2006 – SD7: Peggy Hamric (16%) and Joe Nixon (9%) fail to win primary
2006 – SD18: Glenn Hegar wins primary with 55%
2006 – SD19: Carlos Uresti wins primary challenge against incumbent Frank Madla, 57%-43%
2004 – SD1: Tommy Merritt fails to make special runoff election (21%)
2002 – SD4: Tommy Williams wins primary challenge against Michael Galloway in runoff, 54%-46%
2002 – SD10: Kim Brimer wins primary, 63%-37%
2002 – SD17: Kyle Janek wins primary, 66%-34%, and concurrent special election
2002 – SD20: Chuy Hinojosa wins runoff, 55%-45%
2002 – SD22: Kip Averitt wins primary, 58%-42%
2002 – SD25: John Shields loses primary challenge against incumbent Jeff Wentworth, 51%-49%
2000 – SD3: Todd Staples wins primary with 70%
1999 – SD26: Leticia Van de Putte defeats Leo Alvarado (conceded) in special runoff election
Buckingham and Mayes have garnered the most endorsements, at least as far as the candidates’ web sites promote them.
Key endorsements:
Carol Everett, Heidi Group president
Sen. Don Huffines (R-Dallas)
Laura Kinney, SD25 SREC member
Fmr. Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson
Fmr. Gov. Rick Perry
Fmr. Hays Co. Judge Jim Powers
Wes Riddle, Central Texas Tea Party founder
Sen. Charles Schwertner (R-Georgetown)
Key endorsements:
None listed on his campaign web site.
Key endorsements:
None listed on his campaign web site.
Key endorsements:
No current endorsements listed on his campaign web site. The site provides a “partial list” of her 2014 endorsements.
Key endorsements:
Cathie Adams, Texas Eagle Forum president
Concerned Women for America
Shawna Dyer, Hamilton Co. treasurer
Steven Hotze, Conservative Republicans of Texas president
Bill Hussey, fmr. Llano Tea Party president
C.J. Grisham, Open Carry Texas founder
Bruce Kreitler, Abilene council member
Julie McCarty, NE Tarrant Tea Party president
Steve Savage, Abilene council member
Texans for Fiscal Responsibility/Empower Texans
Texas Right to Life
Key endorsements:
None listed on his campaign web site.
All of the candidates appear capable of self-funding significant portions of their campaigns, but Buckingham and Cobb have been the most successful at raising money from the district. Each has raised just over $75K from district donors, meaning each has 40% of the total contributions from district zip codes. Abilene-based donors have brought King’s contributions from the district to more than $25K, giving her 14% of contributions from district zip codes. The other three candidates combined have raised just over $10K from district zip codes combined (5% of the total).
Industry and interest group PACs have largely stayed out of the race. PACs and other entities have provided just over 10% of total contributions in this race so far.
Six-person primaries do not happen often. Since 1992, exactly six people ran in a primary for a statewide, legislative or congressional office just 14 times. Eleven of those races went to runoffs, and the second-place finisher went on to win seven. Of those 11 primaries, the first-place candidate averaged 37% and the second-place candidate averaged 20%. Only once have the top two candidates not received at least 50% of the vote combined. A first-place candidate has failed to clear 35% just three times.
6-way Primaries since 1992
2014 – CD4: Ralph Hall 45%, John Ratcliffe 29%, Lou Gigliotti 16%, Others 10%
2014 – HD16: Ted Seago 44%, Will Metcalf 42%, Duane Ham 6%, Others 8%
2012 – RRC: Christi Craddick 36%, Warren Chisum 27%, Becky Berger 12%, Others 25%
2010 – CD4: Ralph Hall 57%, Steve Clark 30%, John Cooper 5%, Others 8%
2010 – SC3: Rick Green 19%, Debra Lehrmann 18%, Jim Moseley 18%, Rebecca Simmons 18%, Jeff Brown 17%, Rick Strange 10%
2004 – CD1: Louis Gohmert 42%, John Graves 29%, Wayne Christian 15%, Others 14%
2004 – CD2: Ted Poe 61%, George Fastuca 15%, Clint Moore 12%, Others 12%
2004 – SD31: Kel Seliger 61%, Kirk Edwards 33%, Bob Barnes 3%, Others 3%
2002 – CD26: Scott Armey 45%, Michael Burgess 23%, Keith Self 22%, Others 10%
2002 – HD51: Lulu Flores 38%, Eddie Rodriguez 23%, Marcos De Leon 18%, Others 20%
2000 – HD48: Jill Warren 35%, Scott Loras 24%, Joe Anderson 20%, Others 21%
1996 – CD8: Gene Fontenot 36%, Kevin Brady 22%, Don Henderson 16%, Others 26%
1994 – HD95: Nelda Faye Harris 28%, Glenn Lewis 25%, Martha Singleton 17%, Others 30%
1992 – HD84: Robert Duncan 40%, Wanda Wray 22%, David Fleming 19%, Others 20%
Boldface indicates eventual runoff winner.
6-way Special Elections Since 1992
2015 – HD118: John Lujan 29%, Tomas Uresti 22%, Gabe Farias 19%, Others 31%
2015 – HD123: Diego Bernal 48%, Nunzio Previtera 22%, Melissa Aguillon 18%, Others 14%
2014 – SD28: Charles Perry 53%, Jodey Arrington 30%, Greg Wortham 13%, Others 3%
2008 – SD17: Chris Bell 38%, Joan Huffman 26%, Stephanie Simmons 14%, Others 22%
2005 – HD143: Ana Hernandez 43%, Laura Salinas 26%, Al Flores 10%, Others 22%
2004 – SD1: Paul Sadler 40%, Kevin Eltife 36%, Tommy Merritt 21%, Others 3%
2001 – SD30: Craig Estes 47%, Greg Underwood 23%, Kirk Wilson 17%, Others 13%
Boldface indicates eventual runoff winner.
For reference, we also include the results of 6-way special elections above as a separate toggle.
This race is likely to come down to small margins as candidates try not to finish third. Voters in Brown, Coryell and Kerr Cos. have no hometown candidates, yet they could represent nearly a quarter of votes cast. Faring well – or at least not falling too far behind – in Bell Co. is also important for making the runoff. King likely must carry her home county and be at or near the top in the district’s northern counties.
This race could end up resembling the 2010 race for Supreme Court Place 3. Rick Green (19%) and Debra Lehrmann (18%) advanced out of a closely bunched field. Unless a couple of candidates can separate themselves from the pack in the coming weeks, tenths of a percent may determine who advances and who stays home.
