We have explored the recent historical relationship between open-seat candidates’ rank in total contributions and their success rate in winning their primary outright or advancing to a runoff. Our findings for two-person primary races and primaries involving at least three candidates since 2006 indicate total contributions is a pretty good historical indicator of the candidate’s ultimate success on Election Day:

- 77% of candidates with the highest contribution total win outright or advance to a runoff out of a field of three or more candidates, and 85% of candidates with the higher contribution total in a two-person race win.
- 58% of candidates with the second highest contribution total win outright or advance to a runoff out of a field of three or more candidates.
- 25% of candidates ranked third advance to a runoff, and
- 9% of candidates ranked fourth and lower advance to a runoff.

Candidates who raised *and* spent the most money won 25% of the time, advanced 58% of the time and lost or missed the runoff just 16% of the time. None of the outright winners and just 14% of runoff candidates were outside of the top two in *both* total contributions *and* total expenditures. Half of all runoffs involved the two candidates who spent the most money. No candidate ranked 9th or below advanced to a runoff during the last six election cycles.

Our analysis of primary success rates was based on the campaign finance report filed closed to the primary election. Earlier this month, we looked at the open Congressional seats, including a couple of primary races not involving the incumbent’s party, to see how the candidates ranked as of their year-end reports. Since nearly all pre-primary reports have been filed, we take another look at those races to see how the candidates rank entering the primary election.

The biggest takeaway is, not much has changed. Candidates who had the most contributions as of December 31 tended to have the most as of February 14. For each race, candidates are ranked in order of their total contributions, which is the sum of all contributions received between January 1, 2017, and February 14, 2018.

Keep in mind that the percentages shown are historical, based on candidates’ contribution ranks. **We do not consider them an actual measurement of the likelihood that a particular candidate will win or advance.** Instead, looking across all the races, recent history suggests that about three out of every four candidates in the first column can be expected to win or advance, a little more than half of the candidates in the second column can be expected to advance, and so on.

%

#### Ranked FIrst

%

#### Ranked Second

%

#### Ranked Third

%

#### Ranked Fourth or Lower

### CD2

*Ted Poe (R-Humble) is retiring.*

**C: $5,949,948**

**E: $4,336,233
COH: $1,613,625**

**Previous rank: 1**

C: $337,671

E: $369,216

COH: $286,455

Previous Rank: 2

C: $104,165

E: $326,721

COH: $50,445

Previous Rank: 4

C: $82,118*

E: $8,044*

COH: $74,074*

Previous Rank: 3

* As of December 31

5th: David Balat (C: $78,272 | E: $94,928 | COH: $69,546)

6th: Jonny Havens (C: $70,205 | E: $116,191 | COH: $24,014)

7th: Jon Spiers (C: $40,338 | E: $25,976 | COH: $23,362)

8th: Malcolm Whittaker (C: $7,785 | E: $5,173 | COH: $2,612)

9th: Justin Lurie (C: $3,800 | E: $6,682 | COH: $161)

### CD3

*Sam Johnson (R-Plano) is retiring.*

**C: $726,877**

** E: $537,927
COH: $688,950**

**Previous Rank: 1**

C: $3,846

E: $16,408

COH: $38,438

Previous Rank: 2

No

Reports

Filed

Previous Rank: 3

### CD5

*Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas) is retiring.*

**C: $330,503**

**E: $258,855
**COH: $71,649

**Previous Rank: 1**

C: $183,190

E: $99,368

**COH: $84,822**

Previous Rank: 3

C: $159,430

E: $114,513

COH: $44,917

Previous Rank: 2

C: $125,836

E: $48,717

COH: $77,119

Previous Rank: 4

5th: Sam Deen (C: $69,760 | E: $40,781 | COH: $28,979)

6th: Danny Campbell (C: $3,775* | E: $1,539* | COH: $2,236*)

Charles Lingerfelt and David Williams have not filed campaign finance reports.

** As of December 31, 2017*

### CD6

*Joe Barton (R-Ennis) is retiring.*

**C: $105,370**

E: $38,037

**COH: $67,343**

Previous Rank: 3

C: $96,043

E: $41,082**
**COH: $59,695

**Previous Rank: 1**

C: $59,911

**E: $57,423**

COH: $17,488

Previous Rank: 2

C: $2,360

E: $13,256

COH: $9,104

Previous Rank: 6

5th: Mark (Monte) Mitchell (C: $150* | E: $4,528* | COH: $4,313* | Previous Rank: 4)

6th: Shawn Dandridge (C: $150 | E: $4,528 | COH: $4,563)

Ken Cope, James Dillingham, Deborah Gagliardi, Kevin Harrison and Mel Hassell have not filed campaign finance reports.

** As of December 31, 2017*

### CD7

*John Culberson (R-Houston) is seeking re-election in a seat rated “Toss up” by national pundit Charlie Cook. We look at the Democratic primary here.*

**C: $1,024,329**

**E: $761,955
**COH: $280,065

**Previous Rank: 1**

C: $854,194

E: $524,972

**COH: $326,097**

Previous Rank: 2

C: $765,382

E: $537,861

COH: $226,858

Previous Rank: 3

C: $460,476

E: $423,753

COH: $67,586

Previous Rank: 4

5th: James Cargas (C: $86,362 | E: $88,253 | COH: $8,437)

6th: Joshua Butler (C: $16,877 | E: $6,298 | COH: $745)

7th: Ivan Sanchez (C: $14,640* | E: $13,318* | COH: $4,707*)

** As of December 31, 2017*

### CD16

*Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) is running for U.S. Senate.*

**C: $804,198**

E: $527,834

COH: $285,671

**Previous Rank: 1**

C: $614,734

**E: $736,916**

COH: $221,723

Previous Rank: 2

C: $16,854

E: $86,944

COH: $5,211

Previous Rank: 3

C: $3,200*

E: $0*

COH: $0*

Previous Rank: 4

* As of Sept. 30

5th: Norma Chavez (C: $1,280 | E: $13,737 | COH: -$857)

6th: Jerome Tilghman (C: $1,175* | E: $15,436* | COH: $1,175*)

** As of December 31, 2017*

### CD21

*Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio) is retiring. We look first at the Republicans, then the Democrats.*

**C: $372,574**

E: $192,263

COH: $180,311

**Previous Rank: 1**

C: $203,050

E: $158,473

COH: $44,576

Previous Rank: 3

C: $197,127

**E: $217,864**

COH: $89,263

Previous Rank: 2

C: $164,479

E: $111,429

COH: $61,521

Previous Rank: 4

5th: Robert Stovall (C: $103,084 | E: $93,304 | $34,780)

6th: Susan Narvaiz (C: $59,957 | E: $32,042 | COH: $27,917)

7th: Matt McCall (C: $58,075 | E: $65,832 | COH: $97,437)

8th: Quico Canseco (C: $20,325 | E: $18,665 | COH: $129,481)

9th: Samuel Temple (C: $14,372 | E: $8,196 | COH: $1,179)

10th: Foster Hagen (C: $13,685 | E: $13,685 | COH: $0)

11th: Autry Pruitt (C: $13,191 | E: $12,378 | COH: $813)

12th: Ryan Krause (C: $9,368 | E: $17,434 | COH: $236)

13th: Ivan Andarza (C: $8,897 | E: $7,434 | $1,463)

14th: Anthony White (C: $4,000* | E: $3,424* | COH: $576*)

15th: Al Poteet (C: $350* | E: $5,022* | COH: $487*)

16th: Mauro Garza (C: $1 | E: $112,362 | COH: $4,839)

17th: Peggy Wardlaw (C: $0 | E: $8,707 | COH: $3,543)

Eric Burkhart has not filed campaign finance reports.

** As of December 31, 2017*

**C: $725,135**

**E: $611,264
COH: $157,821**

**Previous Rank: 1**

C: $156,364

E: $128,784

COH: $25,255

Previous Rank: 2

C: $89,400

E: $82,716

COH: $21,684

Previous Rank: 3

C: $8,218

E: $37,088

COH: $929

Previous Rank: 4

### CD23

*Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) is seeking re-election. Here we look at the Democrats seeking to challenge him.*

**C: $556,936**

E: $378,072

**COH: $217,364**

Previous Rank: 2

C: $488,891

**E: $396,988
**COH: $101,385

**Previous Rank: 1**

C: $23,124*

E: $32,845*

COH: $10,786*

Previous Rank: 3

** As of Dec. 31*

C: $21,245

E: $26,903

COH: $6,042

Previous Rank: 4

Angie Villescaz has not filed campaign finance reports.

### CD27

*Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi) is retiring.*

**C: $272,007**

**E: $184,510
COH: $84,497**

**Previous Rank: 1**

C: $83,302

E: $71,175

COH: $12,127

Previous Rank: 2

C: $19,015

E: $43,760

COH: -$24,894

Previous Rank: 3

Eddie Gassman. John Grunwald and Jerry Hall have not filed campaign finance reports.

### CD29

*Gene Green (D-Houston) is retiring.*

**C: $417,677**

**E: $896,882
COH: $290,418**

**Previous Rank: 1**

C: $383,837

E: $249,803

COH: $234,082

Previous Rank: 2

C: $11,837*

E: $4,398*

COH: $35,123*

Previous Rank: 3

* As of Dec. 31

C: $10,012

E: $8,671

COH: $1,445

Previous Rank: 4

5th: Augustine Reyes (C: $9,255 | E: $7,917 | COH: $3,363)

6th: Pedro Valencia (C: $2,398* | E: $3,128* | COH: $1,895*)

Dominique Garcia has not filed campaign finance reports.

** As of December 31, 2017*

### CD32

*Pete Sessions (R-Dallas) is seeking re-election. Here we look at the Democratic candidates seeking to challenge him.*

**C: $904,996**

**E: $602,126
COH: $302,931**

**Previous Rank: 1**

C: $516,064

E: $466,218

COH: $74,821

Previous Rank: 2

C: $430,783

E: $263,085

COH: $164,698

Previous Rank: 3

C: $118,444

E: $99,305

COH: $19,139

Previous Rank: 4

5th: Brett Shipp (C: $105,117 | E: $84,306 | COH: $29,811)

6th: Todd Maternowski (C: $4,971* | E: $5,017* | COH: -$958*)

7th: Ron Marshall (C: $36* | E: $343* | COH: -$20*)

** As of December 31, 2017*

We will take a look at the state open seats after 8-day-out reports are filed on Monday.

*©2018 Texas Election Source LLC*