Revisiting Open-seat Congressional Candidates’ Contribution Ranks

We have explored the recent historical relationship between open-seat candidates’ rank in total contributions and their success rate in winning their primary outright or advancing to a runoff. Our findings for two-person primary races and primaries involving at least three candidates since 2006 indicate total contributions is a pretty good historical indicator of the candidate’s ultimate success on Election Day:

• 77% of candidates with the highest contribution total win outright or advance to a runoff out of a field of three or more candidates, and 85% of candidates with the higher contribution total in a two-person race win.
• 58% of candidates with the second highest contribution total win outright or advance to a runoff out of a field of three or more candidates.
• 25% of candidates ranked third advance to a runoff, and
• 9% of candidates ranked fourth and lower advance to a runoff.

Candidates who raised and spent the most money won 25% of the time, advanced 58% of the time and lost or missed the runoff just 16% of the time. None of the outright winners and just 14% of runoff candidates were outside of the top two in both total contributions and total expenditures. Half of all runoffs involved the two candidates who spent the most money. No candidate ranked 9th or below advanced to a runoff during the last six election cycles.

Our analysis of primary success rates was based on the campaign finance report filed closed to the primary election. Earlier this month, we looked at the open Congressional seats, including a couple of primary races not involving the incumbent’s party, to see how the candidates ranked as of their year-end reports. Since nearly all pre-primary reports have been filed, we take another look at those races to see how the candidates rank entering the primary election.

The biggest takeaway is, not much has changed. Candidates who had the most contributions as of December 31 tended to have the most as of February 14. For each race, candidates are ranked in order of their total contributions, which is the sum of all contributions received between January 1, 2017, and February 14, 2018.

Keep in mind that the percentages shown are historical, based on candidates’ contribution ranks. We do not consider them an actual measurement of the likelihood that a particular candidate will win or advance. Instead, looking across all the races, recent history suggests that about three out of every four candidates in the first column can be expected to win or advance, a little more than half of the candidates in the second column can be expected to advance, and so on.

CD2

Ted Poe (R-Humble) is retiring.

Dan
Crenshaw

C: $82,118*
E: $8,044*
COH: $74,074*

Previous Rank: 3
* As of December 31

5th: David Balat (C: $78,272 | E: $94,928 | COH: $69,546)
6th: Jonny Havens (C: $70,205 | E: $116,191 | COH: $24,014)
7th: Jon Spiers (C: $40,338 | E: $25,976 | COH: $23,362)
8th: Malcolm Whittaker (C: $7,785 | E: $5,173 | COH: $2,612)

9th: Justin Lurie (C: $3,800 | E: $6,682 | COH: $161)

CD3

Sam Johnson (R-Plano) is retiring.

CD5

Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas) is retiring.

Jason
Wright

C: $125,836
E: $48,717
COH: $77,119

Previous Rank: 4

5th: Sam Deen (C: $69,760 | E: $40,781 | COH: $28,979)
6th: Danny Campbell (C: $3,775* | E: $1,539* | COH: $2,236*)

Charles Lingerfelt and David Williams have not filed campaign finance reports.
* As of December 31, 2017

CD6

Joe Barton (R-Ennis) is retiring.

Troy
Ratterree

C: $2,360
E: $13,256
COH: $9,104

Previous Rank: 6

5th: Mark (Monte) Mitchell (C: $150* | E: $4,528* | COH: $4,313* | Previous Rank: 4)
6th: Shawn Dandridge (C: $150 | E: $4,528 | COH: $4,563)

Ken Cope, James Dillingham, Deborah Gagliardi, Kevin Harrison and Mel Hassell have not filed campaign finance reports.
* As of December 31, 2017

CD7

John Culberson (R-Houston) is seeking re-election in a seat rated “Toss up” by national pundit Charlie Cook. We look at the Democratic primary here.

Jason
Westin

C: $460,476
E: $423,753
COH: $67,586

Previous Rank: 4

5th: James Cargas (C: $86,362 | E: $88,253 | COH: $8,437)
6th: Joshua Butler (C: $16,877 | E: $6,298 | COH: $745)
7th: Ivan Sanchez (C: $14,640* | E: $13,318* | COH: $4,707*)

* As of December 31, 2017

CD16

Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) is running for U.S. Senate.

John
Carrillo

C: $3,200*
E: $0*
COH: $0*

Previous Rank: 4
* As of Sept. 30

5th: Norma Chavez (C: $1,280 | E: $13,737 | COH: -$857)
6th: Jerome Tilghman (C: $1,175* | E: $15,436* | COH: $1,175*)

* As of December 31, 2017

CD21

Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio) is retiring. We look first at the Republicans, then the Democrats.

Jenifer
Sarver

C: $164,479
E: $111,429
COH: $61,521

Previous Rank: 4

5th: Robert Stovall (C: $103,084 | E: $93,304 | $34,780)
6th: Susan Narvaiz (C: $59,957 | E: $32,042 | COH: $27,917)
7th: Matt McCall (C: $58,075 | E: $65,832 | COH: $97,437)
8th: Quico Canseco (C: $20,325 | E: $18,665 | COH: $129,481)

9th: Samuel Temple (C: $14,372 | E: $8,196 | COH: $1,179)
10th: Foster Hagen (C: $13,685 | E: $13,685 | COH: $0)
11th: Autry Pruitt (C: $13,191 | E: $12,378 | COH: $813)
12th: Ryan Krause (C: $9,368 | E: $17,434 | COH: $236)
13th: Ivan Andarza (C: $8,897 | E: $7,434 | $1,463)
14th: Anthony White (C: $4,000* | E: $3,424* | COH: $576*)
15th: Al Poteet (C: $350* | E: $5,022* | COH: $487*)
16th: Mauro Garza (C: $1 | E: $112,362 | COH: $4,839)
17th: Peggy Wardlaw (C: $0 | E: $8,707 | COH: $3,543)

Eric Burkhart has not filed campaign finance reports.

* As of December 31, 2017

Mary
Wilson

C: $8,218
E: $37,088
COH: $929

Previous Rank: 4

CD23

Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) is seeking re-election. Here we look at the Democrats seeking to challenge him.

Judy
Canales

C: $21,245
E: $26,903
COH: $6,042

Previous Rank: 4

Angie Villescaz has not filed campaign finance reports.

CD27

Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi) is retiring.

Eddie Gassman. John Grunwald and Jerry Hall have not filed campaign finance reports.

CD29

Gene Green (D-Houston) is retiring.

Hector
Morales

C: $10,012
E: $8,671
COH: $1,445

Previous Rank: 4

5th: Augustine Reyes (C: $9,255 | E: $7,917 | COH: $3,363)
6th: Pedro Valencia (C: $2,398* | E: $3,128* | COH: $1,895*)

Dominique Garcia has not filed campaign finance reports.

* As of December 31, 2017

CD32

Pete Sessions (R-Dallas) is seeking re-election. Here we look at the Democratic candidates seeking to challenge him.

George
Rodriguez

C: $118,444
E: $99,305
COH: $19,139

Previous Rank: 4

5th: Brett Shipp (C: $105,117 | E: $84,306 | COH: $29,811)
6th: Todd Maternowski (C: $4,971* | E: $5,017* | COH: -$958*)
7th: Ron Marshall (C: $36* | E: $343* | COH: -$20*)

* As of December 31, 2017

We will take a look at the state open seats after 8-day-out reports are filed on Monday.

©2018 Texas Election Source LLC