A new Quinnipiac Poll shows President Trump leading six potential Democratic opponents. Trump’s numbers are very tight, suggesting his level of support, and opposition, is unmoved by any particular candidate:
- Trump 47%, Joe Biden 46%
- Trump 47%, Bernie Sanders 45%
- Trump 47%, Beto O’Rourke 46%
- Trump 46%, Julián Castro 41%
- Trump 48%, Kamala Harris 41%
- Trump 48%, Elizabeth Warren 41%
The top four of those races are within the poll’s ±3.4% margin of error.
The primary driver of Democratic support appears to be name recognition. Biden, Sanders and O’Rourke are known to all but 12%, 10% and 15% of voters (That one in six voters have no opinion of O’Rourke is astounding.). Voters are far less opinionated about Harris (42% “haven’t heard enough” to form an opinion), Warren (30%) and Castro (49%).
Perhaps because of his relatively low name identification, Castro’s 51%-32% lead over Trump among Hispanic/Latino voters is virtually the same as Warren (50%-33%) and Harris (51%-35%).
As we noted in our write-up of the other part of this poll, Trump’s favorability rating is 47/49 (-2). The Democrats’ ratings are generally negative:
- Biden 48/38 (+10)
- O’Rourke 44/40 (+4)
- Castro 23/27 (-4)
- Sanders 41/47 (-6)
- Amy Klobuchar 11/17 (-6)
- Harris 24/33 (-9)
- Cory Booker 19/29 (-10)
- Kirsten Gillibrand 10/22 (-12)
- Warren 27/42 (-15) – Very unfavorably among men, 22/51 (-29)
The poll found a hypothetical U.S. Senate race between John Cornyn and O’Rourke would be a 46%-46% tie. O’Rourke is widely expected to run for president instead. Cornyn’s favorability rating is 34/21 with an astonishingly high 43% of voters saying they “haven’t heard enough” to have an opinion about someone who has been elected statewide five times.
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