Early voting began Monday and runs through Friday for the primary runoff elections. It appears that Republican turnout statewide is falling below the 2012 and 2014 election cycles, which featured higher profile statewide races. Democratic turnout statewide may be ahead of the 2012 and 2014 runoffs, despite the absence of a high-profile statewide race. Ballot-by-mail appears to be the driver of turnout in both parties’ runoffs, comprising 91% of the Democratic and 83% of the Republican turnout in the counties for which we have data.
Rep.-elect Jarvis Johnson
This may have significant implications in HD139. Rep.-elect Jarvis Johnson received 85% of the absentee vote, and the 1,049 ballots by mail cast for him represented 69% of his total votes in the recently concluded special election. If they vote for him again, he would have a great advantage in the runoff against Kimberly Willis, who did not run in the special election.
In Harris Co., 15,245 people voted in the Republican runoff (1,528 in person and 13,717 by mail), and 11,253 people voted in the Democratic runoff (1,435 in person and 9,818 by mail) during the first day of early voting. On the Republican side, turnout is 34% below 2012 and 28% below 2014. On the Democratic side, turnout is 38% above 2012 and 46% above 2014.
In Tarrant Co., 7,833 people voted in the Republican runoff (2,130 in person and 5,703 by mail), and 3,889 people voted in the Democratic runoff (204 in person and 3,889 by mail). Republican turnout is 18% below 2012 and 27% below 2014. Democratic turnout is 8% above 2012 and 77% above 2014.
In Travis Co., 1,209 people voted in the Republican runoff (254 in person and 955 by mail) and 3,397 people voted in the Democratic runoff (332 in person and 3,065 by mail). Almost 30% of Republican in-person voters cast ballots in Lakeway, which is part of SD24. Republican turnout countywide is 68% below 2012 and 63% below 2014. Democratic turnout is 211% above 2012 and 13% above 2014.
In Montgomery Co., 3,484 people voted in the Republican runoff (814 in person and 2,670 by mail), and 352 voted in the Democratic runoff (20 in person and 332 by mail). Republican turnout is 43% below 2014, and Democratic turnout is 113% above 2014.
In Williamson Co., 2,230 people voted in the Republican runoff (408 in person and 1,822 by mail), and 981 people voted in the Democratic runoff (39 in person and 942 by mail). Republican turnout is 5% below 2014, and Democratic turnout is 6% below 2014.
Sometime tomorrow we will have reports from the state’s most populous counties.
