The draft Congressional redistricting map shows largely shores up incumbents’ districts (on both sides) but fails to create any new minority-majority or coalition districts. Based on 2020 election results, the map would result in 25 Republican (one competitive) and 13 Democratic districts. The current makeup of the delegation is 23 Republicans and 13 Democrats.

This is a more modest outcome for Republicans, indicating a preference for drawing durable, reliably Republican districts over creating seats that, at least in the short term, would send even more Republicans to Congress. Eight Republican-held districts that were competitive in 2020 would move into the Likely or Safe Republican columns, according to the Cook Political Report’s initial analysis:

  • CD2 (Crenshaw) moves to Trump +23 from Trump +1
  • CD3 (Taylor) moves to Trump +15 from Trump +1
  • CD6 (Ellzey) moves to Trump +20 from Trump +3
  • CD10 (McCaul) moves to Trump +20 from Trump +2
  • CD21 (Roy) moves to Trump +20 from Trump +3
  • CD22 (Nehls) moves to Trump +15 from Trump +1
  • CD24 (Van Duyne) moves to Trump +12 from Biden +5; and
  • CD31 (Carter) moves to Trump +20 from Trump +3.

CD23 (Gonzales) is also projected to be friendlier to the incumbent, shifting to Trump +7 from Trump +2.

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