Four out of every nine early votes for Tuesday’s CD34 (Lean R) special election have been cast by Democratic primary voters, according to our analysis of voter rosters for all 11 counties in the district. Not quite a third of special election voters participated in the March 1 Republican primary, and just under a quarter of special election early voters did not participate in either party’s most recent primary election. Early voting by personal appearance ended Friday.

We previously analyzed early voting rosters in Cameron Co., which at the time accounted for about three quarters of all votes cast. That analysis found there were about 1,200 more Democratic primary voters than Republican primary voters in the county. The Democratic margin has grown to just over 2K voters in the county, which provides essentially the entire Democratic margin across the district.

Across all 11 counties in the district, Democratic primary voters outnumber Republican primary voters by just over 2K:

  • 7,098 Democratic primary voters (44.5%) – 5,323 in Cameron Co. and 1,775 elsewhere
  • 5,048 Republican primary voters (31.7%) – 3,255 in Cameron Co. and 1,793 elsewhere; and
  • 3,789 non-primary voters (23.8%) – 2,878 in Cameron Co. and 911 elsewhere.

Assuming primary voters remain with candidates of their chosen party, the Republicans would need 77% of non-primary voters to cast ballots for them to draw even with the Democrats in early voting. Adding Election Day voters reduces this percentage. The more who vote on Election Day, the smaller the percentage needed to overcome any early voting deficit, assuming Election Day voters lean more Republican than Democrat (We expect they will.).

County by County

Partisan splits for the 11 counties, listed in order of highest percentage of early votes cast to least, are as follows.

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