10

Consecutive number of Democratic U.S. Senate candidates who have failed to take at least 44% of the vote – let alone win – since Lloyd Bentsen received 59% of the vote in 1988.

U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) told the Washington Post he is “going to take a look” at running against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in 2018. The last Democrat to run against Cruz, former Rep. Paul Sadler (D-Henderson) received just over 40% of the vote in 2012. The fact that the race will occur in a gubernatorial year hurts Castro and any other prospective candidate. Since 1990, Democratic nominees for U.S. Senate have averaged less than 38% of the vote in gubernatorial election years, nearly 5 percentage points below the average presidential election year nominee (excluding perennial candidate Gene Kelly in 2000).

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