Average number of incumbent state representatives defeated in primary elections since 2002. Another two incumbent representatives, on average, are forced into runoffs.
More than half of the 24 Republicans defeated in primaries since 2002 have fallen in the last two election cycles (8 in 2012, 6 in 2014). Almost all of the Democrats defeated in the primary election lost in 2010 or earlier. Only two incumbent Democrats have lost primary races since 2012 (Both in 2014).
At least one incumbent has been forced into a primary runoff since 1996, where they have not fared well. Since 2002, 12 incumbents have been defeated in the runoff. This year, six incumbents are at risk of facing a runoff because they have two or more opponents: Reps. Kyle Kacal (R-College Station), Doug Miller (R-New Braunfels), Ron Reynolds (D-Missouri City), Debbie Riddle (R-Tomball), Wayne Smith (R-Baytown) and Speaker Joe Straus (R-San Antonio).
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