Select Page

46%

Success rate of incumbent Texas legislators running for Congress since 2000.

Two incumbent Texas senators and three state representatives are seeking a seat in the U.S. Congress in 2018. Since 2000, six of the 13 incumbent legislators running for Congress have won their races. Four of those six won their races in 2012, when three claimed open seats and a fourth defeated a Republican incumbent in the general election.

Five of the six successful campaigns were for open seats. All five running this year are seeking open seats.

Sen. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) running for CD29 open

Sen. Van Taylor (R-Plano) running for CD3 open

Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Terrell) running for CD5 open

Rep. Jason Isaac (R-Dripping Springs) running for CD21 open

Rep. Kevin Roberts (R-Houston) running for CD2 open

 

2012 – Randy Weber (R-Pearland) won race for CD14 open

2012 – Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) won race for CD20 open

2012 – Pete Gallego (D-Alpine) won race for CD23

2012 – Marc Veasey (D-Fort Worth) won race for CD33 open

2004 – Kenny Marchant (R-Carrollton) won race for CD24 open

2000 – John Culberson (R-Houston) won race for CD7 open

2012 – Barbara Mallory Caraway (D-Dallas) lost Democratic primary challenge for CD30

2012 – Mike Jackson (R-La Porte) lost Republican primary for CD36 open

2008 – Robert Talton (R-Pasadena) lost Republican primary for CD22 open

2008 – Rick Noriega (D-Houston) lost general election challenge for SEN

2006 – Carl Isett (R-Lubbock) lost special election for CD19 open

2004 – Wayne Christian (R-Center) lost Republican primary for CD1 open

2004 – Arlene Wohlgemuth (R-Burleson) lost general election challenge for CD17

There are also three former state representatives running for Congress in 2018. The historical success rate for non-incumbents is much lower than for sitting incumbents. Just one – former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio) – out of 10 has won a seat in Congress since 2000, and he was a former congressman at the time of that special election.

Former Rep. Kenneth Sheets (R-Mesquite) running for CD5 open

Former Rep. Norma Chavez (D-El Paso) running for CD16 open

Former Rep. Barbara Mallory Caraway (D-Dallas) running for CD30

2006 – Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio) won special runoff election for CD23

2016 – Barbara Mallory Caraway (D-Dallas) lost Democratic primary challenge for CD30

2016 – Pete Gallego (D-Alpine) lost general election challenge for CD23

2016 – Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) lost Republican primary challenge for CD8

2014 – Barbara Mallory Caraway (D-Dallas) lost Democratic primary challenge for CD30

2012 – Paul Sadler (D-Henderson) lost general election challenge for SEN

2012 – Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio) lost Democratic primary runoff for CD23

2012 – Domingo Garcia (D-Dallas) lost Democratic primary runoff for CD33

2006 – Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio) lost Democratic primary for CD28

2002 – Paul Colbert (D-Houston) lost Democratic primary for CD25

Ironically, Rodriguez won that 2006 special election after losing the 2006 Democratic primary for a different seat. A court-ordered redistricting plan invalidated the primary results for several districts, so Rodriguez was eligible to seek the seat in the ensuing special election.

©2018 Texas Election Source LLC