63.5%

Winning percentage of legislative runoff candidates who entered the runoff after finishing in first place in the primary since 2000. There have been 85 primary runoffs for legislative seats since 2000, and the candidate who entered the runoff in first place has won 54 of these contests.

 

Runoff winning percentage of first-place candidates with leads of:

%

0% to 2.5%

%

2.51% to 5%

%

5.01% to 7.5%

%

7.51% to 10%

%

10.01% to 15%

%

15.01% to 20%

%

Greater than 20%

%

Any Size

Single-digit leads have produced highly competitive runoffs. Second-place candidates who finished the primary within 10% of the first-place candidate have won nearly half of all runoffs since 2000 (27 wins, 28 losses). Only four candidates who finished double-digits behind the leader have come back to win runoffs since 2000 (4 wins, 26 losses).

Runoffs Where Candidates Were 0% to 2.5% Apart in Primary

2014 – HD129: Dennis Paul wins 52%-48% after trailing 25%-26% (-0.45)
2002 – HD80: Timo Garza wins 52%-48% after leading 40%-40% (+0.45)
2012 – HD43: Rep. J.M. Lozano wins 54%-46% after leading 44%-44% (+0.62)
2012 – HD11: Travis Clardy wins 51%-49% after trailing 46%-47% (-0.81)
2006 – HD63: Tan Parker wins 50.4%-49.6% after leading 25%-24% (+0.96)
2012 – HD59: J.D. Sheffield wins 55%-45% after trailing 42%-42% (-0.98)
2012 – HD117: Philip Cortez wins 57%-43% after leading 35%-34% (+1.08)
2006 – HD47: Valinda Bolton wins 67%-33% after leading 43%-42% (+1.15)
2002 – HD8: George Robinson wins 65%-35% after leading 34%-33% (+1.18)
2000 – HD130: Bill Callegari wins 54%-46% after trailing 35%-36% (-1.25)
2000 – SD2: Bob Deuell wins 63%-37% after trailing 37%-38% (-1.28)
2006 – HD133: Jim Murphy wins 53%-47% after trailing 34%-35% (-1.33)
2004 – HD117: David Leibowitz wins 55%-45% after trailing 42%-43% (-1.48)
2002 – HD28: Glenn Hegar wins 58%-42% after leading 30%-20* (+1.50)
2010 – HD76: Naomi Gonzalez wins 53%-47% after leading 48%-46% (+1.58)
2014 – HD102: Linda Koop wins 60%-40% after leading 35%-33% (+1.59)
2014 – HD16: Will Metcalf wins 62%-38% after trailing 42%-44% (-1.77)
2008 – HD52: Bryan Daniel wins 54%-46% after trailing 30%-32% (-1.80)
2004 – HD34: Abel Herrero wins 56%-44% after leading 38%-36% (+1.92)
2012 – HD67: Jeff Leach wins 53%-47% after trailing 30%-32% (-2.07)
2012 – SD25: Donna Campbell wins 66%-34% after trailing 34%-36% (-2.09)
2014 – HD10: John Wray wins 53%-47% after trailing 36%-38% (-2.27)
2016 – HD18: Keith Strahan enters runoff after leading 28%-26% (+2.34)
2016 – SD24: Susan King enters runoff after leading 27%-25% (+2.48)

Boldface indicates race involved incumbent.
Italics indicate 2016 runoff race.

Runoffs Where Candidates Were 2.51% to 5% Apart in Primary

2008 – HD112: Angie Chen Button wins 53%-47% after leading 38%-35% (+2.94)
2002 – HD128: Wayne Smith wins 50.4%-49.6% after leading 44%-41% (+3.12)
2016 – HD120: Barbara Gervin-Hawkins enters runoff after leading 26%-23% (+3.15)
2006 – HD50: Jeff Fleece wins 53%-47% after leading 47%-44% (+3.15)
2014 – HD76: Cesar Blanco wins 68%-32% after leading 36%-33% (+3.33)
2010 – HD52: Larry Gonzales wins 71%-29% after trailing 38%-41% (-3.33)
2016 – HD139: Kimberly Willis enters runoff after leading 32%-29% (+3.58)
2016 – HD73: Rep. Doug Miller enters runoff after leading 43%-40% (+3.64)
2012 – HD88: Ken King wins 54%-46% after trailing 30%-34% (-3.69)

2010 – HD47: Paul Workman wins 54%-46% after leading 39%-36% (+3.83)
2002 – SD20: Chuy Hinojosa wins 55%-45% after leading 43%-39% (+3.95)
2016 – Briscoe Cain enters runoff after leading 48%-44% (+4.08)
2012 – HD40: Terry Canales wins 53%-47% after leading 30%-26% (+4.25)
2016 – John Keating enters runoff after leading 38%-33% (+4.77)
2016 – Scott Cosper enters runoff after leading 42%-37% (+4.89)
2012 – HD115: Bennett Ratliff wins 52%-48% after trailing 30%-35% (-4.97)

Boldface indicates race involved incumbent.
Italics indicate 2016 runoff race.

Runoffs Where Candidates Were 5.01% to 7.5% Apart in Primary

2008 – HD55: Ralph Sheffield wins 63%-37% after trailing 31%-36% (-5.34)
2008 – HD81: Tryon Lewis wins 76%-24% after leading 44%-38% (+5.59)
2010 – HD84: John Frullo wins 53%-47% after trailing 43%-49% (-5.64)
2012 – HD12: Kyle Kacal wins 51%-49% after trailing 24%-30% (-5.78)
2012 – HD114: Jason Villalba wins 52%-48% after trailing 41%-47% (-6.31)
2008 – HD144: Ken Legler wins 52%-48% after leading 46%-40% (+6.40)
2002 – HD31: Ryan Guillen wins 61%-39% after leading 39%-32% (+6.83)
2006 – HD72: Drew Darby wins 60%-40% after leading 40%-33% (+6.89)
2012 – HD23: Wayne Faircloth wins 56%-44% after leading 39%-32% (+6.99)
2010 – HD83: Charles Perry wins 58%-42% after trailing 32%-39% (-7.13)
2002 – HD50: Jack Stick wins 69%-31% after trailing 25%-33% (-7.44)

Boldface indicates race involved incumbent.
Italics indicate 2016 runoff race.

Runoffs Where Candidates Were 7.51% to 10% Apart in Primary

2010 – HD66: Van Taylor wins 58%-42% after trailing 33%-41% (-7.54)
2012 – HD91: Stephanie Klick wins 54%-46% after trailing 32%-40% (-7.92)
2014 – SD10: Konni Burton wins 60%-40% after leading 43%-35% (+8.07)
2006 – HD28: John Zerwas wins 53%-47% after leading 25%-16% (+8.66)
2014 – HD66: Matt Shaheen wins 54%-46% after leading 49%-40% (+8.79)
2004 – HD58: Rob Orr wins 60%-40% after trailing 33%-42% (-8.80)
2006 – HD71: Susan King wins 50.5%-49.5% after trailing 29%-38% (-9.01)
2006 – HD11: Larry Durrett wins 61%-39% after leading 42%-33% (+9.66)
2014 – SD2: Bob Hall wins 50.4%-49.6% after trailing 39%-48% (-9.67)
2002 – HD89: Jodie Laubenberg wins 53%-47% after leading 42%-32% (+9.71)
2012 – HD95: Nicole Collier wins 60%-40% after leading 48%-38% (+9.75)
2014 – HD58: DeWayne Burns wins 53%-47% after trailing 30%-40% (-9.76)

Boldface indicates race involved incumbent.
Italics indicate 2016 runoff race.

Runoffs Where Candidates Were 10.01% to 15% Apart in Primary

2002 – HD20: Dan Gattis wins 57%-43% after leading 45%-35% (+10.04)
2006 – HD47: Bill Welch wins 55%-45% after leading 39%-28% (+10.16)
2006 – HD54: Jimmie Don Aycock wins 58%-42% after leading 39%-29% (+10.28)
2002 – HD35: Gabi Canales wins 58%-42% after leading 47%-36% (+10.39)
2002 – SD4: Tommy Williams wins 54%-46% after leading 45%-35% (+10.41)
2002 – HD134: Martha Wong wins 51%-49% after leading 39%-28% (+10.42)
2000 – HD48: Jill Warren wins 57%-43% after leading 35%-24% (+10.47)
2002 – HD107: Bill Keffer wins 54%-46% after leading 38%-27% (+10.84)
2000 – HD116: Trey Martinez Fischer wins 60%-40% after trailing 31%-42% (-11.08)
2010 – HD149: Jack O’Connor wins 52%-48% after leading 45%-34% (+11.54)
2016 – HD64: Lynn Stucky enters runoff after leading 42%-30% (+12.22)
2012 – HD24: Greg Bonnen wins 58%-42% after leading 45%-33% (+12.42)
2014 – HD53: Andrew Murr wins 61%-39% after leading 41%-29% (+12.44)
2004 – HD35: Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles wins 73%-27% after leading 45%-31% (+13.35)
2012 – HD26: Rick Miller wins 58%-42% after leading 41%-27% (+13.95)
2012 – HD68: Drew Springer wins 56%-44% after trailing 35%-49% (-14.49)
2002 – HD51: Eddie Rodriguez wins 51%-49% after trailing 23%-38% (-14.85)

Boldface indicates race involved incumbent.
Italics indicate 2016 runoff race.

Runoffs Where Candidates Were 15.01% to 20% Apart in Primary

2006 – HD146: Borris Miles wins 54%-46% after trailing 33%-48% (-15.37)
2004 – HD41: Veronica Gonzales wins 71%-29% after leading 49%-34% (+15.53)
2014 – HD108: Morgan Meyer wins 74%-26% after leading 47%-30% (+16.96)
2004 – HD17: Jean Kilgore wins 56%-44% after leading 39%-22% (+17.00)
2006 – HD42: Rep. Richard Raymond wins 58%-42% after leading 49.8%-32% (+17.55)
2010 – HD14: Rep. Fred Brown wins 63%-37% after leading 44%-26% (+17.82)
2002 – HD70: Ken Paxton wins 63%-37% after leading 39%-21% (+18.14)
2014 – HD105: Susan Motley wins 75%-25% after leading 47%-28% (+18.85)
2016 – HD5: Cole Hefner enters runoff after leading 46%-27% (+19.05)
2012 – HD137: Gene Wu wins 62%-38% after leading 43%-24% (+19.09)

Boldface indicates race involved incumbent.
Italics indicate 2016 runoff race.

Runoffs Where Candidates Were More Than 20% Apart in Primary

2006 – HD118: George Antuna wins 81%-19% after leading 49%-28% (+21.01)
2002 – HD143: Rep. Joe Moreno wins 61%-39% after leading 47%-23% (+23.97)
2016 – HD27: Rep. Ron Reynolds enters runoff after leading 48%-24% (+24.34)
2014 – HD132: Mike Schofield wins 68%-32% after leading 45%-19% (+25.14)
2002 – HD15: Rob Eissler wins 69%-31% after leading 47%-22% (+25.70)
2016 – SD1: Bryan Hughes enters runoff after leading 48%-21% (+26.79)
2010 – HD127: Dan Huberty wins 71%-29% after leading 49%-20% (+28.73)

Boldface indicates race involved incumbent.
Italics indicate 2016 runoff race.

Since 2010, the second-place finishers have won just as many races as the first-place finishers: 20 wins and 20 losses.

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