27.4%
Increase in votes received by Ernest Bailes in the runoff, compared to the primary
Ernest Bailes
The theoretically easiest path to a runoff victory is holding on to the people who already voted for you in round one. That turns out to be a tall task when runoff turnout plunges 87% from the primary, as it did on Tuesday. However, one candidate not only held on to his voters but added to them. Ernest Bailes received 7,554 votes in the runoff, up from 5,928 in the six-way primary. Compared to the primary, Bailes received 734 more votes in Walker Co., 704 more votes in Liberty Co. and 188 more votes in San Jacinto Co.
His opponent Keith Strahan lost 1,417 votes in Liberty Co., 858 votes in Walker Co. and 539 votes in San Jacinto Co., accounting to a 44% drop from the primary. These shifts turned his 536-vote plurality in the primary into a 3,904-vote defeat in the runoff.
The other legislative runoff candidates lost an average of 51% of their voters from the primary. The actual percentage is higher. Some of their runoff voters either voted for other candidates or did not vote in the primary.
Percent Change in Runoff Candidates' Vote Totals from the Primary
+ 27.4% – Ernest Bailes (HD18)
– 6.7% – Jodey Arrington (CD19)
– 10.6% – Dawn Buckingham (SD24)
– 21.9% – Glen Robertson (CD19)
– 26.1% – Barbara Gervin-Hawkins (HD120)
– 33.6% – Mario Salas (HD120)
– 38.3% – Kyle Biedermann (HD73)
– 39.5% – Jay Misenheimer (HD5)
– 43.5% – Keith Strahan (HD18)
– 45.9% – Cole Hefner (HD5)
– 46.4% – Keven Ellis (ED9)
– 48.8% – Rep. Susan King (SD24)
– 52.5% – Angelique Bartholomew (HD27)
– 52.8% – Wayne Christian (RRC)
– 52.9% – Justin Holland (HD33)
– 53,5% – Austin Ruiz (HD54)
– 54.5% – Rep. Doug Miller (HD73)
– 55.5% – Rep. Jarvis Johnson (HD139)
– 56.8% – Lynn Stucky (HD64)
– 57.4% – Rep. David Simpson (SD1)
– 57.4% – Rep. Bryan Hughes (SD1)
– 58.3% – Scott Cosper (HD54)
– 59.9% – John Keating (HD33)
– 60.5% – Rep. Wayne Smith (HD128)
– 63.6% – Briscoe Cain (HD128)
– 65.0% – Kimberly Willis (HD139)
– 68.3% – Gary Gates (RRC)
– 68.3% – Read King (HD64)
– 73.5% – Rep. Ron Reynolds (HD27)
– 76.3% – Mary Lou Bruner (ED9)
Boldface indicates runoff winner
Eight candidates won despite receiving less than half the number of votes they received in the primary.
State Board of Education candidate Mary Lou Bruner, who was a few thousand votes shy of winning the primary outright, lost more than 75% of her support, the biggest percentage drop. Gary Gates received almost 400K fewer votes than in the primary, the largest drop in number of votes.
