As we suspected yesterday, Republican early voting turnout is down sharply from 2014 while Democratic turnout is up significantly, at least in the state’s 15 most populous counties. Without a marquee statewide race, Republican turnout is 31% below 2012 and 43% below 2014. Democratic turnout is 61% above 2012 and 47% above 2014 despite the lack of a marquee statewide race.
Votes Cast in the State’s Largest Counties Through Monday
- 2012 – 66,999
- 2014 – 80,904
- 2016 – 46,095
- 2012 – 26,539
- 2014 – 29,030
- 2016 – 42,795
Turnout patterns are largely being driven by absentee (ballot by mail) voters. Only 20% of early voters through the first day of early voting cast ballots in person. Legislation passed in 2013 permitted a voter to apply for a ballot by mail for all elections in a calendar year, so ballots were automatically sent to many primary voters who cast ballots in the primary. This may explain the apparent surge in ballot-by-mail votes in this runoff.
Ballot-by-mail Share of Early Vote in Harris Co. Runoff Elections
%
2012
%
2012
%
2014
%
2014
%
2016
%
2016
We expect the 2016 percentages will fall as more voters cast ballots in person this week. That said, we will be watching to see if ballot-by-mail voters comprise a higher percentage of runoff voters than in years past.
