17,637
Vote advantage every Democrat running in HD46 had in 2012 thanks to straight-ticket voting.
The Austin American-Statesman and other media outlets reported that the Travis Co. District Attorney has opened a criminal investigation of Rep. Dawnna Dukes’ (D-Austin) use of state workers. Dukes said she never violated state law. Dukes faces Manor educator Gabriel Nila (R) and two minor party candidates in the general election.
Could the investigation put HD46 in play in November? The short answer is, no. HD46 is one of the most heavily Democratic districts in the state.
2012 General Election
%
Percent of HD46 Straight-Ticket Votes Going to Democrats
%
Percent of HD46 Vote Going to Barack Obama
2014 General Election
%
Percent of HD46 Straight-Ticket Votes Going to Democrats
%
Percent of HD46 Vote Going to Wendy Davis
No Republican or minor party candidate can be competitive in this district so long as Democratic straight-ticket voting is so strong. In 2012, straight-ticket Democratic voters represented more than half of all ballots cast in HD46, and this presidential election should produce a similar number.
We do not expect the investigation to have any impact on Dukes’ ability to prevail in November, assuming she is on the general election ballot. Her troubles would have to give so many HD46 voters pause so that straight-ticket voting drops dramatically, and even that may not be enough for Nila or a minor party candidate to prevail.
