Percent of Democratic primary races featuring (1) no incumbent and (2) at least one male and one female candidate that a woman won outright or advanced to a runoff.

In this analysis, we’re looking at Democratic primary races for Congress, statewide office, the legislature and the State Board of Education in which no incumbent was running. The field of Democratic candidates must include at least one man and one woman.

A woman won 19 out of 38 (50%) such races outright, defeating at least one male candidate. One woman advanced to a runoff to face a male candidate in 10 (26%) such races, and two women made the runoff in six (16%) such races. A female candidate failed to win or advance in just three (8%) such races.

Of the 42 Democratic runoff candidates for those offices, 25 (60%) are women. Both candidates are women in seven of those runoffs. Of the 26 Republican runoff candidates, just four (15%) are women.

Women comprised nearly 60% of Democratic early voters compared to 50% of Republican early voters, according to Republican strategist Derek Ryan’s final analysis of voter history. That fact, combined with the strong showing by women in the Democratic primary, suggests that “pink tide” may be a more apt metaphor for Democratic enthusiasm than a “blue wave.”

©2018 Texas Election Source LLC