May 27, 2014

Midnight – May 28

We will wrap up our runoff results with an update in the morning when final numbers are in. Until then, we note some of the historical significances of tonight’s results:

  • Turnout in a partisan runoff has exceeded 5% for the 4th time since ’94:
    • 5% – ’12 GOP
    • 3% – ’94 DEM
    • 7% – ’02 DEM
    • ~5.4% – ’14 GOP
  • Turnout remains below every other state with a runoff except North Carolina.
  • 7 of 23 (30%) federal and state runoffs flipped the primary result, with the 2nd place finisher winning, slightly less than the 36% average since ’96.
  • Ralph Hall is the first incumbent Congressman to be defeated in a runoff since ’96 (Greg Laughlin, who lost to Ron Paul).
  • Ryan Sitton is the 4th non-judicial statewide runoff winner who was 2nd in the primary since ’96 (Cruz in ’12, Kirk in ’02, Cornyn in ’98).
    • Sitton set a modern record for a non-judicial statewide runoff flip, going from 12% down on primary night to 14% up in runoff.
    • Ted Cruz held the previous record, going from 10.5% down to 13.6% up last cycle.
  • Dan Morales and Rick Perry remain the last sitting House members to win a statewide race, both in 1990.
  • Bob Deuell is the third straight incumbent senator to lose a runoff since (Wentworth in ’12, Galloway in ’02), and the streak may be longer. Our reliable data goes back only to ’92.
  • The Senate will have at least seven new members, and one new presiding officer, when it convenes in January.
  • Since 2004, 24 runoffs (out of 96) for House seats have been won by the second-place primary candidate, including 13 (out of 28) in the last two cycles.

Stefani Carter is the 9th straight legislative incumbent to lose a runoff after finishing 2nd in primary voting.

11:20 p.m. – May 27

With 100% of Dallas Co. precincts reporting, we have Bob Hall defeating Bob Deuell by 300 votes.

10:45 p.m.

Overall, turnout may not exceed 7% for both parties combined, which would be 3 points below 2012.

Statewides (94% reporting):

Patrick 65%
Paxton 64%
Miller 53%
Sitton 57%

Alameel 73%
Hogan 54%

SD2: We’re not sure what changed in a county with 100% of precincts reporting — likely a flipped number for election day results — but Bob Hall’s lead is now 212 votes, by our count, with only the same Dallas boxes out. If that’s the case, Deuell will not be in front when the night is over. There are still ballots by mail that will come in over the next week, provisional ballots that may or may not count, and, likely, a recount.

SD10: Burton has held a 60%-40% lead all night. 15 boxes are out.

HD10: Wray defeats Fabby, 53%-47%.
HD16: Metcalf defeats Seago, 62%-38%.
HD53: Murr leads 61%-39% with 5 boxes out.
HD58: Burns leads 55%-45% (703 votes) with 17 boxes out.
HD66: Shaheen defeats Callison, 54%-46%.
HD76: Blanco leads 68%-32% with 1 box out.
HD102: Koop defeats Carter, 60%-40%.
HD105: Motley leads 74%-26% with 10 boxes out.
HD108: Meyer leads 74%-26% with 12 boxes out.
HD129: Paul defeats Berg, 52%-48%.
HD132: Schofield leads 69%-31% with 9 boxes out.

ED11: Hardy leads 58%-42% with 34 boxes out.
ED13: Beltran leads 66%-34% with 88 boxes out.

CD4: Ratcliffe defeats Hall, 53%-47%.
CD23: Hurd leads 59%-41% with 16 boxes out.
CD36: Babin leads 58%-42% with 1 box out.

10:10 p.m.

With 18 Dallas Co. boxes out, we have Bob Hall leading Bob Deuell by 6 votes. In those 18 boxes, Hall won early voting by 28 votes.

9:55 p.m.

In remaining SD2 Dallas Co. boxes, Hall won EV by 139 votes. Deuell’s lead is 101 votes, when accounting for all Dallas Co. ED precincts in. ED voting has been behind EV voting, so it will be very, very, very recount-ably close.

9:40 p.m.

SD2: Race is down to Dallas Co. where Hall has picked up a net 169 votes w/ 41% reporting. Deuell’s lead is 101 votes. Hall won EV overall in Dallas Co. by 436 votes.

HD76: Blanco increases lead slightly to 68%-32% with 40% reporting.
HD102: Koop leads Carter, 60%-40%, with 89% reporting.
HD108: Meyer leads Westcott, 72%-27%, with 64% reporting. Westcott has conceded.

CD4: AP calls race for Ratcliffe.

9:25 p.m.

Statewides: Patrick 65%, Paxton 64%, Miller 53%, Sitton 58% (57% reporting); Alameel 72%, Hogan 55% (57% reporting)

SD2: Bob Hall leads by 1 vote (36% reporting) per the Secretary of State; Deuell leads by 117 when Dallas Co. (16% reporting) and Rockwall Co. (100% reporting) ED results are included
SD10: Burton 60%-40% (61% reporting)

HD10: Wray 53%-47% (80% reporting)
HD16: Seago conceded to Metcalf, who leads 63%-37% (68% reporting)
HD53: Murr leading 64%-36% (81% reporting)
HD58: Burns leading 54%-46% (24% reporting)
HD66: Shaheen wins 54%-46%
HD76: Blanco leads 67%-33% (EV only)
HD102: Koop leads 61%-39% (59% reporting)
HD108: Meyer leads 73%-27% (29% reporting)
HD129: Paul leads 54%-46% (6% reporting)
HD132: Schofield leads 70%-30% (7% reporting)

CD4: Ratcliffe leads 52%-48% (84% reporting – Collin and Rockwall Cos. are out and Ratcliffe took EV there)
CD23: Hurd leads 59%-41% (68% reporting)
CD36: Babin leads 59%-41% (55% reporting)

ED11: Hardy leads 58%-42% (55% reporting)
ED13: Beltran leads 67%-33% (30% reporting)

9 p.m.

David Dewhurst has called Sen. Dan Patrick to concede. The Associated Press has called all the statewide races.

SD2 is going to come down to Dallas, Fannin and Rockwall Cos., and most of the other counties’ precincts are in.

  • Dallas: Hall won EV by 436 votes. With 16% of precincts reporting, Hall has stretched that lead to 500 votes.
  • Fannin: No numbers have been reported. Deuell won Fannin Co. by 554 votes in March.
  • Rockwall: Deuell won EV by 354 votes. No precincts have reported.

If those numbers hold, Deuell would win by about 120 votes, but there are a lot of boxes out in Dallas Co. to counter Fannin and Rockwall Cos.

In SD10, Konni Burton continues to hold a solid lead over Mark Shelton, 61%-39%, with about a third of precincts reporting.

In HD102, Linda Koop leads, 61%-39%, with 59% reporting. If Rep. Stefani Carter loses, she will be the 9th straight incumbent legislator to lose a runoff after finishing 2nd in the primary.

In HD108, Morgan Meyer leads, 72.5%-27.5%, with 29% reporting.

In HD129, Dennis Paul leads, 54%-46%, with 6% reporting.

In HD132, Mike Schofield leads, 70%-30%, with 7% reporting.

8:40 p.m.

Most races are still EV only, and thus largely unchanged from our last reports. Notable updates with Election Day results coming in:

HD10: Wray 55%-45% with 77% reporting
HD16: Metcalf 63%-37% with 67% reporting
HD53: Murr 61%-39% with 42% reporting
HD58: Burns 54%-46% with 24% reporting

CD4: In just about every county in the district, Ralph Hall’s advantages over John Ratcliffe are either significantly smaller, or reversed, from the primary. Some examples:

  • Bowie Co.: 1,435-vote margin in primary, 93-vote margin today
  • Grayson Co.: 1,669-vote margin in primary, 6-vote margin today
  • Hunt Co.: 1,751-vote margin in primary, 62-vote deficit today
  • Rockwall Co.: 688-vote margin in primary, 103-vote deficit today

These were some of Hall’s best counties in March. He is running out of places to pick up votes. Ratcliffe leads overall, 51.5%-48.5%.

SD2: The same phenomenon is happening in this race, but Deuell started from a stronger position.

  • Dallas Co.: 912-vote margin in primary, 436-vote deficit today
  • Hunt Co.: 2,483-vote margin in primary, 1,151-vote margin today (and looking healthy)
  • Kaufman Co.: 18-vote margin in primary, 342-vote deficit today
  • Rockwall Co.: 912-vote margin in primary, 354-vote margin today

Hall has pulled into the lead, 52%-48%, because Van Zandt Co., one of his strongest, has 89% of precincts reporting.

8:15 p.m.

HD76: Cesar Blanco is up 67%-33% over Norma Chavez in EV.

8:05 p.m.

Taking a breath from the rush of EV results, the threads emerging this evening:

Three of the four more conservative statewide Republicans are winning easily, but Ryan Sitton has managed to break enough “straight Tea ticket” votes to gain a surprising 20-point lead on Wayne Christian. Sitton is winning all the big counties, and is even over 80% in Midland Co. Christian is faring best in East Texas.

Ralph Hall is losing narrowly, down by about 1,000 votes. Hurd leads Canseco comfortably, but many of the western counties are still out. Babin leads Streusand comfortably despite being beaten badly in Harris Co.

Bob Deuell’s lead is 22 votes in EV with Fannin and Rains Cos. still not reporting. Deuell won both of those counties on primary day.

Other Republican legislative races are generally not close:

SD10: Burton 62%-38%
HD10: Wray 55%-45%
HD16: Metcalf 64%-36%
HD53: Murr 61%-39%
HD58: Burns 55%-45%
HD66: Shaheen 54%-46%
HD102: Koop 61%-39% — appears a second-place incumbent legislator will lose a 9th straight runoff
HD108: Meyer 73%-27%
HD129: Paul 54%-46%
HD132: Scofield 71%-29%

Democratic leaders are breathing sighs of relief with Alameel and Hogan leading, and Susan Motley poised to be the HD105 nominee, one of the party’s best shots at picking up a seat in November.

7:50 p.m.

Patrick, Paxton, Miller, Sitton holding leads in EV.

CD36: Babin, walloped by Streusand in Harris Co., is winning the other seven counties that have reported, leads Streusand 56%-44% in EV.

HD105: Motley leads 73%-27% in EV.

ED11: Hardy leads 57%-43% in EV.

ED13: Beltran leads 66%-34% in EV.

7:35 p.m.


Patrick 64%, Paxton 63%, Miller 55%, Sitton 60%

Alameel 73%, Hogan 56%

CD4: Ratcliffe up 52%-48% with most counties EV in

SD2: Deuell up 51%-49% (364 votes) with most counties EV in

HD10: Wray up 55%-45% in EV
HD53: Murr up 62%-38% with Kerr and Medina Cos. EV in
HD58: Burns up 55%-45% in EV

7:20 p.m.

Harris Co. EV:
Patrick 73%, Paxton 71%, Merritt 52%, Sitton 75%
CD36: Streusand 67%
HD129: Paul 54%
HD132: Schofield 71%

Montgomery Co. EV:
Patrick 75%, Paxton 74%, Miller 71%, Sitton 57%
HD16: Metcalf 64%

Denton Co. EV:
Patrick 69%, Paxton 68%, Miller 67%, Sitton 50.5%

Bexar Co. EV:
Patrick 60%, Paxton 60%, Miller 52%, Sitton 62%
CD23: Hurd 58%

Travis Co. EV:
Dewhurst 59%, Branch 53%, Miller 53%, Sitton 58%

7:10 p.m.

Polls have closed across much of Texas. Typically, we will have early voting results only for the first hour or so. We’ll begin by looking at some of the large counties’ EV results:

Dallas Co. EV
SW: Patrick 55%, Branch 50.3%, Miller 52%, Sitton 60%
HD102: Koop 61%
HD108: Meyer 73%

Tarrant Co. EV
SW: Patrick 67%, Paxton 69%, Miller 63%, Sitton 52%
SD10: Burton 61%

Collin Co. EV
SW: Patrick 68%, Paxton 70%, Miller 62%, Sitton 54%
HD66: Shaheen 54%

5:05 p.m.

Welcome to another night of live election returns and analysis from Texas Election Source.

You have received this email because you, or someone who loves you, asked to be placed on our distribution list. If you’ve been with us on previous election nights, you know we typically send out updated results every 15-30 minutes until the last races are decided.

If you do not wish to receive these emails, please tell me now. It is hard to change the list once returns start coming in.

Polls close in two hours for much of the state. Of course, voters in line at 7 p.m. local time can still vote, but early voting totals may be released right after 7.

Tonight, we expect to know much about the statewide races shortly after polls close. We expect several legislative races to take much longer to resolve.

In general, we predict that candidates who successfully positioned themselves to the right, and their activists/supporters, will have an enjoyable night. Locally, we believe that some establishment-type legislative candidates may hold off more conservative rivals. On the Democratic side, very low turnout means races may be more competitive than they probably should be.

Turnout was likely below 4% in early voting, and early voting has become a steadily more significant percentage of overall turnout. Throw in today’s heavy rains across Central and Southeast Texas (including the vote-rich Greater Houston area), and we are most likely looking at single-digit turnout — well below 2012.

Earlier today, we sent out a document of historical facts and tidbits using our new email system. We suspect not all of you received it (sent around 11 a.m. this morning). I’ve attached it here in case you missed it earlier.

We’ll be back with our first returns shortly after 7p.m. CDT.