May 10, 2014

11:30 p.m.

Jefferson Co. appears to still be counting, but the runoff is set.

Rep. Brandon Creighton will finish the night more than 20 points ahead of Rep. Steve Toth, who will edge out Gordy Bunch by 550-600 votes, but well short of an outright win.

In a statement, Rep. Toth said the runoff “will provide a focused opportunity to discuss the differences in our commitment to the conservative agenda.”

Rep. Creighton has not, as far was we can tell, released a statement. Bunch thanked his family, friends and supporters and congratulated the candidates who advanced.

Thank you for letting us invade your inbox this evening. We will send one more message later this weekend (or Monday) discussing some local results and inviting you to the next phase of Texas Election Source.

Good night!

10:15 p.m.

The Texas Secretary of State shows 100% of precincts reporting, but Jefferson Co. is still counting. All of its precincts are at least partially counted, but not many are 100% counted.

That said, Creighton will carry all five counties and finish at or slightly above 45%. Toth will finish second, unless some of those Jefferson Co. boxes have a lot of Bunch votes in them (well above the EV numbers and turnout), with around 23%. The two will advance to a late June runoff.

We will have one more final update later this evening, and we’ll take a look at some of the local races and their implications tomorrow and Monday.

9:50 p.m.

Not much new to report. Creighton is around 45%. Toth leads Bunch by ~550 votes. Harris, Chambers and Galveston are 100% in. 2 boxes are out in Montgomery, and counting continues in Jefferson Co.

SD4 turnout figures: Harris 4.6%, Chambers 5.2%, Jefferson 4.1% but will go up, Montgomery ~7.5%, Galveston de minims (To be fair, only 2 precincts are in SD4, but only 66 total votes were cast.).

9:25 p.m.

With 98 of 229 precincts fully reported:

Creighton 12,872 votes (45%)
Toth 6,726 votes (24%)
Bunch 6,263 votes (22%)
Galloway 2,671 votes (9%)

There are 8 boxes out in Montgomery Co. and many still out in Jefferson Co., but it does not look like the outstanding Jefferson Co. and Harris Co. boxes will allow Bunch to catch Toth.

A runoff between Creighton and Toth is looking highly likely.

9:15 p.m.

Many Montgomery Co. boxes reported in during the last few minutes, and Toth’s lead over Bunch (for 2nd place) has swelled to nearly 500 votes.

9:10 p.m.

Toth has taken a 42-vote lead over Bunch for 2nd place with most Montgomery, Harris and Jefferson Co. boxes out. Galveston Co.’s boxes are “stuck on a ferry” per Ted Delisi.

Creighton is hovering at 47%.

8:40 p.m.

Creighton remains in the lead but below 50%. Bunch continues to be around 200 votes ahead of Toth for 2nd place.

Harris Co. election day results (45% reporting): Creighton 51, Bunch 22, Toth 12

Chambers Co. election day results (100% reporting, at least partially): Creighton 48, Bunch 23, Toth 12

Jefferson Co. election day results (82% reporting, at least partially): Creighton 41, Bunch 28, Toth 20%

Montgomery Co. EV + ED results (30 precincts reporting): Creighton 48, Toth 26, Bunch 19

8:10 p.m.

Some election day numbers have come in.

In Montgomery Co., 9 precincts have reported in, and Creighton is less than 40 votes short of 50%. Toth continues to lead Bunch in Montgomery Co.

Chambers Co. has reported some election day numbers, but they are broken out by precinct, and we have not had an opportunity to add those together.

Galveston, Harris and Jeffeson Cos. have not reported any election day numbers.

7:45 p.m.

Early vote is in for all counties in SD4:

Creighton 47.2%
Bunch 21.6%
Toth 21.3% (65 votes behind Bunch)
Galloway 10.0%

No election day results are in, and they may take awhile.

7:35 p.m.

EV in for all but Chambers Co.: Creighton 46.7%, Bunch 22.0%, Toth 21.6%, Galloway 9.7% — 66 vote lead for Bunch over Toth

No Election Day numbers available yet.

7:20 p.m.

Creighton is over 50% in Harris Co. (EV only), just short of 50% in Montgomery Co. (EV only) and just 36% in Jefferson Co. (EV). Bunch is running a strong second in Jefferson Co. at 31%.

Toth’s EV share is 25% in Montgomery, 17% in Jefferson and 13% in Harris.

No reports yet from Chambers or Galveston Cos.

Overall, Creighton is at 46%, Toth 23%, Bunch 22%, Galloway 9%.

7:10 p.m.

Welcome to another night of live election returns. We expect tonight to be abbreviated relative to primary night, and already we have a good idea of how the SD4 special is shaping up:

SD4: Montgomery Co. early voting:

Creighton 49%
Toth 25%
Bunch 19%
Galloway 7%