3 a.m. – March 5
Hegar ends tonight 75 votes short of avoiding a runoff. Mail ballots, provisional ballots and a potential recount could lift him out of a runoff with Hilderbran.
In ED11, Hardy is indeed forced into a runoff against Mahroum.
9 legislative incumbents were defeated tonight: Sen. Carona and Reps. Burnam, N. Gonzalez, Gooden, Harper-Brown, Lavender, Di. Patrick, Ratliff and R. Sheffield. Four others have been forced into runoffs: U.S. Rep. Hall, Lt. Gov. Dewhurst, Sen. Deuell and Rep. Carter.
Turnout fell well short of 2010 levels. Strong early voting totals did not result in strong election day turnout, and it clearly hurt establishment Republicans all over the state.
Both parties have statewide runoffs, although only one is clearly looking forward to theirs, and runoffs will take place at every level of the ballot in some counties. Here are the federal, state, legislative and SBOE runoffs:
CD4: Hall (45%) and Ratcliffe (29%)
CD23: Hurd (41%) and Canseco (40%)
CD36: Babin (33%) and Streusand (23%)
LTGOV: Patrick (41%) and Dewhurst (28%)
AG: Paxton (44%) and Branch (33%)
AGRIC: Miller (35%) and Merritt (21%)
RRC: Christian (43%) and Sitton (30%)
SD2: Deuell (49%) and Hall (39%)
SD10: Burton (43%) and Shelton (35%)
HD10: Fabby (38%) and Wray (36%)
HD16: Seago (44%) and Metcalf (42%)
HD53: Murr (41%) and Henneke (29%)
HD58: Eby (40%) and Burns (30%)
HD66: Shaheen (49%) and Callison (40%)
HD102: Koop (35%) and Carter (33%)
HD108: Meyer (47%) and Westcott (30%)
HD129: Berg (26%) and Paul (25%)
HD132: Schofield (45%) and Hodge (19%)
COMP: Hegar (right at 50%). Would be with Hilderbran (26%)
ED11: Hardy (right at 50%). Would be with Mahroum (44%)
SEN: Alameel (47%) and Rogers (21%)
AGRIC: Hogan (39%) and Friedman (38%)
ED13: Beltran (47%) and Hilburn (27%)
HD76: Blanco (44%) and Chavez (29%)
HD105: Motley (47%) and Meza (29%)
Huffines has defeated Carona, 50.6-49.4, a margin of 635 votes (100% reporting)
Still no new #s from Dallas Co.
CD23: Hurd has edged ahead of Canseco by 126 votes thanks to ED voting (99% reporting). Both are headed to a runoff.
HD105: As we’ve noted, Anderson defeated Harper-Brown. His Democratic opponent will be chosen in a runoff between Motley (47%) and Meza (29%).
HD110: Rose defeated the ineligible Crenshaw, 55-45.
ED7: Incumbent David Bradley, despite being outspent 5-to-1, prevailed 55-45.
ED11: Incumbent Pat Hardy, who was over 50% most of the evening, is now under 50% and faces a potential runoff against Eric Mahroum. 26 boxes are still out, and Hardy is 446 votes shy of a majority.
ED13: On the Democratic side, Erika Beltran is headed to a runoff with 47%, but it is unclear who she will face as 59 votes separates the other two candidates with 77% reporting.
HD1: Lavender lost to VanDeaver, 46-54 (100% reporting).
COMP: Bowie Co. reporting also knocked Hegar under 49.9%, but those Dallas boxes I mentioned a few emails ago are still not included in the SoS totals, so I still have him hovering just over 50% with a few other counties still out.
There have been no new numbers out of Dallas Co. in almost an hour. I know that a lot of you are hanging on for some closure there. Patience, grasshoppers.
Both parties are over 90% of precincts reported, according to the SoS. County election web sites show the number to be higher.
So far, there have been seven (Burnam, N. Gonzalez, Gooden, Harper-Brown, Patrick, Ratliff, R. Sheffield) and two more likely (Carona, Lavender). U.S. Rep. Ralph Hall, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Sen. Bob Deuell, and Rep. Stefani Carter are headed to runoffs.
Abbott and Davis cruised to easy victories, but there are troubling results in Davis’ votes. She lost in a number of RGV counties, and is going to receive significantly fewer votes than Bill White in 2010.
It has been a good night for Tea Party-aligned social conservatives, who are almost all in first place headed to runoffs (or avoiding them, which Hegar may be able to do). Dan Patrick (42%), Ken Paxton (45%), Glenn Hegar (50ish%), Sid Miller (35%) and Wayne Christian (43%) all lead after round one.
The four Supreme Court justices on the ballot easily dispatched their foes.
Campbell and Seliger won their races, but Deuell finds himself in a runoff, and Carona is currently on the losing end of a close race. Former Rep. Mark Shelton finds himself trailing Tea Party champion Konni Burton in SD10.
Voters have provided a mixed bag of results for the various groups seeking to place their distinctive ideological or policy-issue stamps on the Legislature. Some Straus lieutenants won, some insurgent types did too. Some moderates won, and some Tea Partiers did too. And many of the open seats are going to runoffs:
HD10: Fabby and Wray
HD16: Seago and Metcalf
HD53: Murr and Henneke
HD58: Eby and Burns
HD66: Shaheen and Callison
HD108: Meyer and Westcott likely to runoff (60% reporting)
HD129: Berg and Paul
HD132: Schofield and likely Hodge (93% reporting)
COMP: Hegar is within 278 votes of a majority. His vote total has slowly but steadily crept toward 50% all night. If Dallas Co. votes shown on its web site were added to the SoS report, Hegar would be at 50.07%. There are a handful of counties still out where Hegar did not perform well — particularly Bowie Co. — but he has a very good chance of winning outright.
SD16: Carona had a 258-vote advantage in early voting in the remaining precincts. He trails Huffines by 906 overall.
It is not looking like turnout for the GOP primary is going to reach record-breaking levels. Statewide turnout sits at roughly 1.27 million with 87% of precincts reported. DEM turnout should exceed 500K, but will likely fall short of 2010 levels.
HD4: Gooden lost to Spitzer, 49-51 (100% reporting)
HD55: Sheffield lost to White, 46-54 (100% reporting)
HD76: N. Gonzalez misses runoff by 160 votes (100% reporting). Blanco and Chavez to runoff.
HD90: Burnam lost to Romero by 111 votes (100% reporting)
HD94: Patrick lost to Tinderholt, 45-55 (100% reporting)
HD105: Harper-Brown lost to Anderson, 47-53 (100% reporting)
HD115: Ratliff lost to Rinaldi by 92 votes (100% reporting)
INCUMBENTS IN TROUBLE
CD4: Hall headed to runoff, leads Ratcliffe 46-29 (82% reporting)
LTGOV: Dewhurst headed to runoff, trails Patrick 28-42 (84% reporting)
SD2: Deuell appears headed to runoff, sits at 48.5% (82% reporting)
SD16: Carona trails Huffines by 906 votes (90% reporting) — boxes from HD108 are most of the outstanding precincts
HD1: Lavender trails VanDeaver, 44-56 (67% reporting), but we think there is an error here, but unclear how it will break for them
HD102: Carter (33%) and Koop (34%) to runoff (98% reporting)
COMP: Hegar inches up to 49.96% with 87% reporting. He is 439 votes shy of an outright win (out of 1,16M cast in his race).
HD77: Marquez easily turns away Ness-Garcia, 66-34 (100% reporting)
11:40 p.m. – March 4
HD94: Tinderholt has defeated Patrick, 55-45 (100% reporting)
SD2: Deuell has fallen below 50% and faces prospect of runoff against Hall, who is closing in on 40%. As of this moment (of my writing this, that is), the SoS shows:
Deuell 19,709 — includes 2,572 from Dallas Co.
Hall 16,300 — includes 2,236 from Dallas Co.
Thompson 4,829 — includes 762 from Dallas Co.
The Dallas Co. website has more recent figures: Deuell 4,398, Hall 3,609, Thompson 1,493 with 37 of 127 precincts out. This would give us a revised set of figures:
Deuell 21,535 (48.1%)
Hall 17,673 (39.5%)
Thompson 5,560 (12.4%)
The remaining outstanding boxes are all of Fannin Co. (Deuell 54% in EV) and 2 precincts in Hunt Co. (Deuell 61% in EV and ED). Deuell is 850 votes short of a majority when you include all of Dallas. His margins in the outstanding boxes (41 votes over 50% in Fannin and 745 over 50% in all of Hunt) suggest he will remain short of 50% and face Hall in a surprising runoff.
SD10: Burton 43, Shelton 35, Pompa 12 (90% reporting)
SD25: Campbell continues to be well above 50% in Travis Co. as ED votes are slowly counted. She is at 55% district-wide with just the Travis and a few Bexar boxes to go.
SD31: Seliger has defeated Canon, 52-48.
HD6: Schaefer 61, Ogle 39 (100% reporting)
HD8: Cook 59, Vickery 35 (100% reporting)
HD60: Keffer 56, Crisp 44 (100% reporting)
STATEWIDES (69% reporting GOP, 76% reporting DEM)
SEN: Cornyn 59.8, Stockman 19, Stovall 11
GOV: Abbott 91, Fritsch 5
LTGOV: Patrick 41, Dewhurst 28, Staples 18, Patterson 12
AG: Paxton 44, Branch 33, Smitherman 23
COMP: Hegar 49.4, Hilderbran 27, Medina 19
LAND: Bush 73, Watts 27
AGRIC: Miller 35, Merritt 21, Opiela 17, Cotten 15, Carnes 12
RRC: Christian 43, Sitton 31, Berger 17, Boyuls 10
SCCJ: Hecht 60, Talton 40
SC6: Brown 72, Pool 28
SC8: Johnson 64, McCally 36
SEN: Alameel 47.6, Rogers 22, Scherr 17
GOV: Davis 78, Madrigal 22
ACOM: Hogan 40, Friedman 38, Fitzsimons 23
RRC: Brown 64, Henry 36
The only outstanding issue statewide is whether Hegar can get over 50%. He has some strong counties still not reporting ED votes so it’s conceivable. Right now, he is less than 4,000 votes short of 50%+1. In EV, Hegar received 49.02% (6,408 votes short of a majority). So far on ED, he has received 50.5% of the vote, suggesting his sustained last-minute advertising might get him over the top.
Picking up the House where we left off:
HD71: S. King 67, Castro 33 (100% reporting)
HD72: Darby 80, Thomason 20 (86% reporting)
HD81: Landgraf 58, Keith 42 (87% reporting)
HD83: Perry 74, Massengale 26 (87% reporting)
HD121: Straus 62, Beebe 38 (87% reporting)
HD129: Berg 25.7, Paul 25.0 to runoff (98% reporting)
HD132: Schofield 47, Hodge 18.9, Perryman 17.3, Franks 16.8 (93% reporting)
HD134: Davis 71, Parker 29 (99% reporting)
HD149: Hoang 56, Ho 44 (96% reporting)
HD150: Riddle 75, Noun 25 (98% reporting)