Election Day votes are beginning to come in, but very few so far. Statewide, about 5% of precincts have reported.
HD1: One county’s numbers have flipped and now Lavender TRAILS VanDeaver. We’ll keep a close eye on this as it was a significant flip with no new votes coming in.
HD16: Seago 44, Metcalf 42 through EV
HD18: Otto 71, Holcomb 29 through EV
HD23: Faircloth 65, Senter 35 through EV
HD58: Eby 38, Burns 31, Teich 25 through EV
HD72: Darby 81, Thomason 19
HD90: Burnam TRAILS by 5 votes with 11% reporting
We’re off to a chaotic start tonight. One of the blessings of county officials aggressively putting election data online, and a slew of folks inside and outside campaigns live-tweeting, is a huge amount of information is available almost instantly. One of the downsides of this is, a huge amount of information is available almost instantly.
What do we know?
GOV: It’s Abbott and Davis, though Davis is having trouble in RGV counties. She is losing Hidalgo Co. to her unknown opponent.
LTGOV: Looks like Patrick and Dewhurst in a runoff.
AG: Looks like Paxton and Branch in a runoff, but still too early to call.
COMP: Looks like Hegar and Hilderbran in a runoff, but still too early to call.
LAND: George P. Bush
AGRIC: Looks like Miller and Merritt in a runoff, but still too early to call. On the DEM side, looks like Friedman and Hogan in a runoff.
RRC: Looks like Christian and Sitton in a runoff.
SCT: Incumbents winning comfortably.
SENATE: Carona is trailing by a slender margin through EV, other incumbents winning. SD10 looks like Libby Willis vs. Mark Shelton/Konni Burton runoff winner.
HOUSE: Several incumbents in trouble but several others winning more easily than expected. Too early to call many of these races.
Overall, it looks like the Tea Party and other social conservatives are making up a majority of early voters. The question now is, will this wing of the GOP sustain its numbers/proportion through election day, when theoretically more moderates and undecideds come to vote?
Democrats may end up with two unpalatable runoffs. Kinky Friedman in the ACOM race, and Kesha Rogers in a US SEN runoff.
via Twitter “Wish Senator Cornyn best of luck in Nov & urge everyone to vote for, volunteer 4 and support the whole Texas GOP ticket.”
LTGOV: Dewhurst, 44-27 (10.5 pts ahead of Staples, good enough for runoff, so far)
SD16: Carona, by 152 votes
HD76: Gonzalez in third behind Blanco, Chavez (41 votes behind Chavez)
HD90: Burnam, by 14 votes
HD94: Patrick, by 612 votes
HD102: Carter, by 108 votes to Linda Koop (leads Sam Brown by 336 votes)
HD105: Harper-Brown, by 60 votes
HD115: Ratliff, by 9 votes
OTHER NEW RESULTS
SD25: Campbell over 50% with only Travis Co. not reporting EV.
HD1: Lavender 55, VanDeaver 45 (but Bowie and Red River Cos. are not reporting EV)
HD59: Sheffield 63, Pelton 30 with all but 1 county reporting EV.
SEN: Alameel 50.7, Rogers 22, Scherr 14
GOV: Davis 77, Madrigal 23
ED13: Beltran 45, Russell 31, Hilburn 24
HD77: Marquez 66, Ness-Garcia 34
Numbers are flying in from lots of places. All figures are %s through early voting only.
SD31: With about half of the counties reporting EV, Seliger leads 58-42. Canon won EV in Ector and Midland Cos. by 3,003 votes. Seliger won Potter and Randall Cos. by 3,715.
HD4: With Henderson Co. EV in, Gooden leads Spitzer by 16 votes. Kaufman Co. EV still not reported. In 2012, Gooden’s margin in Kaufman was smaller than Henderson.
HD8: Cook 61, Vickery 34, all counties EV in
HD10: Wray 39, Fabby 35, Ellzey 16, both counties EV in
HD11: Clardy 85, Sevilla 15
HD21: Phelan 58, Nichols 42
HD53: Murr 43, Henneke 36, Harris 18, 7 counties not yet reporting EV
HD60: Crisp wins Hood Co. by 1,360 in EV. Keffer has won EV in Brown, Callahan, Coleman and Palo Pinto Cos by 1,952 in EV, and Eastland Co. has not reported.
HD64: Crownover 57, R. King 43
HD66: Shaheen 49.7, Callison 39.7
HD71: S. King 70, Castro 30
HD81: Landgraf 57, Keith 43
HD83: Perry 76, Massengale 24 (all EV in)
AGRIC: Hogan 42, Friedman 37, Fitzsimons 21
RRC: Brown 63, Henry 37
HD36: Munoz 77, Regalado 23
Very early statewide (Some of these #s will move ALOT — Dallas and Tarrant, which we’ve previously reported, are not in these #s):
SEN: Cornyn 63, Stockman 17
GOV: Abbott 92
LTGOV: Patrick 42, Dewhurst 28, Staples 17
AG: Paxton 43, Branch 32, Smitherman 24
COMP: Hegar 47, Hilderbran 29, Medina 19
LAND: Bush 75, Watts 25
AGRIC: Miller 36, Merritt 22, Cotten 16
RRC: Christian 43, Sitton 32
SCCJ: Hecht 58, Talton 42
SC6: Brown 74, Pool 26
SD15 Whitmire 76, LaCroix 24
Allen, Alvarado way ahead
SEN Cornyn 58, Stockman 22
CD36 Streusand 39, Manlove 17, Babin 9, Riley 9
LTGOV Patrick 60, Dewhurst 18, Patterson 14
AG Paxton 37, Smitherman 36, Branch 26
COMP Hegar 52, Hilderbran 33
RRC Sitton 42, Christian 30
SCCJ Hecht 57, Talton 43
SC6 Brown 76, Pool 24
SD7 Bettencourt 90, Wilson 10
SD17 Huffman 88, Anthony 12
HD129 Paul 29, Berg 24, Perry 17, Cain 11, Huls 10
HD132 Schofield 51, Hodge 18, Perryman 15.5, Franks 15.4
HD134 Davis 70, Parker 30
HD149 Hoang 57, Ho 43
HD150 Riddle 79, Noun 21
SD10: Willis 55, Martinez 45
HD90: Romero 50.2, Burnam 49.8 (14 vote separation)
CD33: Veasey 80, Sanchez 20
CD4: Hall 45, Ratcliffe 29
SD2: Deuell 59, Hall 29
SD16: Campbell 47, Chan 28, Novak 24 — near majority vote in Bexar puts Campbell in good position to win w/o runoff
HD117: Galindo 67, Garza 33
HD121: Straus 64, Beebe 36
SEN: Cornyn 68, Stockman 15
CD23: Canseco 44, Hurd 40
GOV: Abbott 92
LTGOV: Patrick 48, Dewhurst 33
AG: Paxton 39, Branch 35, Smitherman 26
COMP: Hilderbran 40, Hegar 37, Medina 18
COURTS: Incumbents leading comfortably
Still nothing from Harris Co.
More from DALLAS CO.:
Cornyn 73, Stockman 13
Sessions 70, Pierson 30
Patrick 48, Dewhurst 24
Paxton 43.2, Branch 42.8, Smitherman 14
Hegar 61, Hilderbran 21, Medina 16
Christian 41, Sitton 39
Hecht 68, Talton 32
Brown 76, Pool 24
More from TARRANT CO.:
Cornyn 65, Stockman 17
Patrick 52, Dewhurst 26
Paxton 58, Branch 28, Smitherman 14
Hegar 58, Medina 23, Hilderbran 15
Christian 52, Sitton 28
Hecht 71, Talton 29
Brown 76, Pool 24
Early votes from DALLAS CO.:
Huffines 50.3, Carona 49.7 (152 vote difference)
Koop 35, Carter 33, Brown 28
Anderson 50.8, Harper-Brown 49.2 (60 votes)
Meyer 48, Westcott 29, Alley 22
Button 55, Patterson 45
Rinaldi 50.1, Ratliff 49.9 (9 votes)
Early votes from TARRANT CO.:
Burton 45, Shelton 35, Pompa 12
Stickland 64, Cargile 36
Tinderholt 54, Patrick 46
Early votes from SMITH CO.:
Schaefer 62, Ogle 38
Most polling places in Texas will close in two hours. Polls in El Paso and Hudspeth Cos. will close in three hours because of the time difference. Polls in Travis Co. will close in four hours because of weather-related delays this morning. We are aware of a handful of other situations that have led, or will lead, to delayed closings, including a SWAT situation in Fort Bend Co. and an electrical failure in Smith Co.
Keep in mind that voters in line at the time the polls close are still able to cast ballots, and this can keep precincts from reporting in for up to several hours, depending on turnout.
We expect to know quite a bit about the state of the statewide races fairly early tonight. Most large counties will report early voting totals shortly after 7 p.m., including Travis Co., and the midsize counties usually report within the first 90 minutes. From there, things may take awhile.
Among the broad storylines tonight is turnout, particularly in the Republican primary. The 2010 primary saw the most people turn out for a GOP primary in Texas as 1,484,542 cast ballots. Early voting turnout suggests up to 1.7 million will vote in the GOP primary this year, though today’s wintry weather may dampen turnout in South Central Texas. Will these “new” primary voters bolster establishment-type candidates, such as Sen. John Carona and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, or will they swell the Tea Party’s ranks?
A second storyline is runoffs. While this year should be short of a record, we expect the second-most number of primary runoffs in Republican history (federal, statewide, legislative and SBOE). On the Democratic side, we expect most races to be settled tonight (or in the morning) but one or two statewide runoffs may still require the state’s Democratic faithful to vote in May.
The plan tonight is to issue an update every 20 minutes or so once counties begin reporting data. In addition to the Secretary of State’s web site, we will be following various county election departments, news media accounts and Twitter for the latest information. You can follow us at @TXElects for real-time tidbits that will be included in our email blasts.
I probably will be unable to respond to specific emailed, texted, or tweeted questions, or take phone calls, during tonight’s proceedings.
For media inquiries, I ask that you text me at the number below and I will call you as soon as I’m able. Let me know if you’re on deadline, as I might be able to be “able” a little sooner.
Thanks, and enjoy the show.
Greetings and Happy Election Day!
Tonight, we will be providing live election results and instant analysis via email to Texas Election Source subscribers and friends.
If you would like to receive these updates tonight, please reply to this message and I will add you to this list. If not, please ignore this email and accept my apology for the intrusion into your inbox.
If you have colleagues or friends that might be interested in receiving updates tonight, please let me know, preferably before 6 p.m. as it gets difficult to manage the distribution list AND watch returns at the same time.
You can also follow us on Twitter at @TXElects.
We know winter weather has delayed some polling place openings, forced consolidations and closures, and may lead to court-ordered extensions and other remedies. More than 60 counties have been under some form of winter weather warning/advisory during the regular hours of voting today.
We expected Republican primary turnout to approach record numbers prior to the weather conditions, which may chill turnout a bit today. Early voting turnout has generally been above 2010 and 2012 levels in most counties for which data is available. Democratic primary voting has generally been stronger than 2010 but is well under the 2008 record turnout.
If conditions warrant, there will be another update prior to polls closing today, otherwise expect updates to begin at 7 p.m. CST and continue until the party’s over.