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Recently Posted News & Analysis

Storylines We’re Following for Primary Night

By Jeff Blaylock – Founder & Senior Editor

MAR. 4, 2024

Endangered incumbents?

Only one legislative incumbent has fallen in a primary election in the last two primary

elections. At least four legislative incumbents were ousted in the each of the previous

nine primary elections going back to 2002. This year, 57 House incumbents and two

Senate incumbents face at least one primary challenger.

Twenty-one House incumbents face multiple primary challengers. From 2008 to 2022,

53 House incumbents – 40 Republicans and 13 Democrats – have faced multiple

primary challengers. Of those, 30 won outright and two lost outright. The other 21 were forced into runoffs, 14 of which ultimately lost. Put another way, 57% of House

incumbents facing multiple primary challengers since 2008 won re-nomination outright and another 13% prevailed in a runoff.

If these percentages holds for 2024, then we would expect to see 12 incumbents facing multiple primary challengers to win outright. That would put as many as nine

incumbents into a runoff. It’s a question of rounding as to whether history suggests we will see an(y) outright loss(es).

Dueling endorsements?

Gov. Abbott and Atty. Gen. Paxton have issued dueling endorsements in at least nine

contested House primaries. For the most part, Abbott backed incumbents while Paxton favored challengers (Abbott is backing other challengers, just not against Paxton’s incumbents.). History gives Abbott the edge but does not make any of his backed candidates immune to Paxton’s supporters.

Bubbling underneath these endorsements are clashes more typical of past Republican primaries, including Texas Right to Life vs. Texas Alliance for Life and scorecard conservative groups against Texans for Lawsuit Reform and Associated Republicans of Texas.

Open-seat Races?

There’s a historical trend worth watching in significant open-seat primary races with

three or more candidates. These races include open-seat races for the retiring

incumbent party’s nomination or, in cases of competitive general election races, the

opposing party’s nomination.

Since 2006, the candidate with the highest total contributions through the 8-day-out

reporting period has won outright 27% of the time and advanced to a runoff 52% of the time. The candidate with the second-highest total contributions has won outright 5% of the time and advanced to a runoff 46% of the time.

No candidate outside the top two fundraisers has won such a primary outright. Only a

quarter of candidates with the third-highest contribution total made a runoff. One in eight of candidates with the fourth-highest contribution totals make a runoff, and just one in 20 of everyone else.

These percentages have been remarkably stable for the last 10 years.

Where does turnout fit in recent years?

Republican turnout appears headed for the second highest in state history, measured

as the total number of votes cast. As of the end of early voting, 1.23M people have

voted in person or by mail in the Republican primary. It is the 9th straight primary election in which at least 1M people voted in the Republican primary and the 12th overall. If turnout reaches 2020 levels, then it will be the third time at least 2M people have voted in a Republican primary. Turnout is unlikely to eclipse the all-time mark of 2.84M set in 2016.

Democratic turnout is right about where it has been most of the past five election cycles, except for 2020’s contested presidential primary. Around 600K people have voted early so far in the Democratic primary. Turnout has exceeded 1M people in each of the last four Democratic primaries – it has done so only twice in the previous 10 primaries.

Some other questions will be answered Tuesday (or early Wednesday):

  • Can Colin Allred avoid a runoff in his bid to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz?
  • Will Rep. Victoria Neave become the first primary challenger to oust a sitting

    state senator since 2018 and the first to oust a sitting Democratic state senator

    since 2006?

  • Will U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales be forced into a runoff in South Texas amid record

    levels of Republican voting there?

  • Which candidates will emerge from crowded fields for open congressional seats, and how small will their vote percentages be?
  • What surprises are in store for us?
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Texas House Race 30-Day-Out Report Analysis

Texas House Race 30-Day-Out Report Analysis

Challengers Outpacing Incumbents

By Jeff Blaylock – Founder & Senior Editor

More than $8 million flowed into races pitting an incumbent Republican House member against one or more primary challengers during the first 25 days of the year. This is more than 1.5 times the combined totals from 2018, 2020 and 2022 over the same period.

Candidates’ 30-day-out reports disclose contributions received and expenditures made between January 1 and January 25. This is the shortest campaign finance reporting period of the cycle, so it typically produces the lowest contribution totals. Not this year, at least not for races featuring an incumbent Republican House member facing at least one primary challenger.

Part of the reason is the sheer number of Republican House incumbents facing primary opposition. There are 48 this year compared to 29 in 2022, 11 in 2020 and 26 in 2018. But the average contribution totals for the incumbents and their highest-funded challengers are also up over those previous years.

Putting the Speaker’s primary race aside, incumbents raised an average of $104K for the period, well above the $46K average in 2022, $36K in 2020 and $67K in 2018. Their highest-funded rivals raised an average of $49K for the period this year, which eclipses the $12K average in 2022, $22K average in 2020 and $38K average in 2018.

About two-thirds of all contributions for the period went to the incumbents, which represents a higher share than in 2018 (64%) and 2020 (60%) but a lower share than in 2022 (78%). Over the previous three cycles, just nine candidates – 6 incumbents and 3 challengers – exceeded $100K in contributions for the corresponding cycle. In 2024 alone, 24 incumbents and 7 challengers – received more than $100K in contributions during this short period.

Seven challengers out-raised their incumbent opponents during the period, which equals the total number in 2018 (3), 2020 (2) and 2022 (2) combined. Those challengers are:

  • HD 11 Joanne Shofner, who out-raised Rep. Travis Clardy $289K to $40K
  • HD 19 Former Rep. Kyle Biedermann, who narrowly out-raised Rep. Ellen Troxclair, $102K to $101K
  • HD 20 Janine Chapa, who narrowly out-raised Rep. Terry Wilson, $34K to $31K
  • HD 62 Shelley Luther, who out-raised Rep. Reggie Smith, $86K to $78K
  • HD 65 Mitch Little, who out-raised Rep. Kronda Thimesch, $157K to $150K
  • HD 71 Liz Case, who out-raised Rep. Stan Lambert, $207K to $112K; and
  • HD 108 Barry Wernick, who out-raised Rep. Morgan Meyer, $73K to $43K.

Of those, only Case ($323K to $213K) and Little ($148K to $133K) have the advantage in cash on hand entering the campaign’s final month.

For the incumbents, the good news is that only one of the previous seven challengers to out-raise the incumbents for the 30-day-period won. Indeed, the batting average for House Republican primary challengers hasn’t been particularly good over the last few cycles regardless of fundraising. Only six incumbent Republican House members have fallen to primary challengers (9%) during the past three primaries (including runoffs).

That said, an unusually high number of House Republicans are facing multiple primary challengers. Since 1996, 38 incumbent legislators have been forced into a runoff. All but 10 of them lost.

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Governor Greg Abbott Sets New Fundraising Records For A Non-Election Year

Governor Greg Abbott continues to set state fundraising records. He reported raising $19.7M in his January semiannual reports, which covered the second half of 2023. This is the most ever raised by an officeholder for a semi-annual period in a non-election year, breaking his previous record of just under $19.0M raised during the second half of 2021.

The green and purple bars represent Abbott’s half-year contribution totals from 2005 to 2023. The green bars indicate contributions for Jan 1-Jun 30, 2023 and the purple bars represent Jul 1-Dec 31 for each year.

The orange and pink bars represent Abbott’s semi-annual report cash on hand totals from 2005 to 2023. The orange bars represent the totals for Jun 30, 2023 semi-annual and the pink bars represent Dec 31 for each year.

His total was bolstered by a $6M contribution from Jeff Yass, founder and managing director of Pennsylvania-based Susquehanna International Group. Yass, who is believed to be one of the country’s largest political donors, is a school choice advocate. It is the largest single contribution to a state political campaign in state history, excluding self-funded candidates and transfers between a candidate’s campaign committees. Yass’s contribution eclipses the $4M contribution to Abbott by the Republican Governors Association’s Right Direction PAC in November 2022.

Abbott raised $34.9M during 2023, which is the first non-election year following his 2022 re-election. This figure is almost as much as he raised in 2019 and 2015 combined. These also were the first years after being elected governor. It is the second-most ever raised by an officeholder in a non-election year, trailing only the $37.7M Abbott raised during 2021.

Even though he will not be up for re-election until 2026, Abbott was responsible for raising just over half of all funds raised by all Republican candidates and officeholders during 2023, and Abbott collected $4 out of every $9 raised by any legislative or statewide candidate or officeholder during 2023. Abbott by himself out-raised every Republican House and Senate candidate combined by $12.3M during the year.

Abbott has raised just over $350M since July 1995, when the earliest campaign finance report currently available online was filed. Abbott has raised over $260M since becoming governor in January 2015 and raised over $303M since he announced he was running for governor in 2013. He has raised $144M in the last three years alone.

Abbott reported having $32.4M on hand as of December 31. This is $1.2M less than his cash on hand at the same point in 2019, which was the year after his previous re-election, but is nonetheless the 15th highest cash on hand figure ever reported by a state candidate. Abbott’s campaign has reported the 24 biggest cash-on-hand totals by a state candidate in state history. He has reported having at least $20M on hand 27 times.

The highest-ever cash-on-hand figure reported by a candidate not named Greg Abbott is the $27.0M figure reported by Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick as of June 30, 2022. Patrick has reported having at least $20M on hand eight times. Only one other state candidate has ever reported having at least $20M on hand: Beto O’Rourke, who had $23.9M on hand as of June 30, 2022.

On several occasions, Abbott has had more cash on hand than the entire Congressional delegation. As of September 30, the state’s U.S. House incumbents (excluding Democrat Candidate Colin Allred, who is challenging US Sen. Ted Cruz) had $36.3M on hand combined, only about $4M more than Abbott. With primaries coming up, it’s likely Abbott will once again have more on hand than the delegation. We’ll find out when the congressional year-end reports are filed. They’re due January 31.

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Record Number of House Republicans Facing Multiple Primary Challengers

By Jeff Blaylock – Founder & Senior Editor

JAN. 5, 2023

If it seems to you like more Republican House incumbents are facing multiple primary challengers (MPCs), then your perceptive powers are accurate. This cycle, 16 House Republicans are facing MPCs. This is the most in any election cycle in state history, breaking the previous record of 11 set in 2022.*

The 2022 and 2024 cycles are the only two to have double-digit incumbent House Republicans facing MPCs and only the third since at least 1996 to have at least 10 MPC races against all incumbent representatives (2018 had 10.).

The vast majority of Texas House seats are effectively decided in the primary because the current redistricting map created precious few competitive seats. The choice for voters, then, is not between parties, but instead which kind of Republican in red districts or Democrat in blue districts will represent me. 

Beginning with the 2008 cycle, the bulk of intra-party conflict involving MPCs has occurred in the Republican primary. Of the 53 House incumbents facing MPCs, 40 of them were Republicans (75%). This year, 16 of the 20 are Republicans (80%). By contrast, only four House Democrats, all members of the Texas Legislative Black Caucus, face MPCs. 

Since 2008, House incumbents facing MPCs have won 30 of their primary races outright (without a runoff), and another 21 were forced into runoffs. Only two – Democrats Naomi Gonzalez (2014) and Dawnna Dukes (2018) – finished third or lower in the primary. Runoffs have not generally been kind to incumbents, but they aren’t death sentences, either. Incumbents have won seven of the 21 runoffs MPCs have forced them into (33%). Overall, the incumbents have won renomination, either in the primary or runoff, in 70% of the time they had MPCs.

In prior cycles, the challengers typically branded the incumbents as RINOs or campaigned to their right, claiming the incumbents were insufficiently conservative. This year, there are two specific issues – two specific votes, actually – that seem to be driving many of the challenges. Every one of the 16 House Republicans facing MPCs voted to impeach Ken Paxton and half of them voted for retiring Rep. John Raney’s amendment removing school choice provisions from the education bill during a November special session.

The January semi-annual reports and, perhaps more so, the 30-day-out reports will provide more insight into which challengers have leveraged Paxton’s and/or Abbott’s endorsements into the cash and in-kind resources needed to oust an incumbent.

*For purposes of this analysis, we ignored the Senate, where incumbents rarely face a serious challenge, and Congress, where MPCs are a pretty common and highly unsuccessful occurrence.*

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Embracing AI: The Game-Changer for Political Professionals

By Laura Carr

TXElects Owner & Head of Business Development

DEC. 18, 2023

TXElects has launched a prototype of the first AI-driven software for Texas political professionals to 10 heavy-hitting organizations. This software is specifically designed to aggregate, query, and analyze complex legislative information, and is currently in a two-month-long client prototype testing phase to find improvements and refine the product.

The rapid development and exponential growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology over the last year may raise concerns. However, it’s time for political professionals to view AI not as a threat, but as an invaluable ally.

As we embark on the campaign season with a looming 5th Special Session, we recognize the challenges political professionals face. Endless hours are dedicated to researching candidates, analyzing legislation, monitoring committee hearings, and watching floor debates. The solution? Embracing automation through AI.

In the past year, we have witnessed a remarkable surge in public accessibility to Artificial Intelligence, particularly with the release of sophisticated Large Language Models (LLMs). These systems, capable of processing, comprehending, and generating text in a strikingly human-like manner, are transforming the way we tackle everyday challenges. Many Texas Legislative staffers are already using Chat GPT to easily and quickly summarize bills and documents, allowing them to redirect valuable time to analysis and strategy.

Our advanced AI solutions will offer personalized insights, tailored to your unique needs. Effortlessly navigate thousands of bills with automated analysis and custom summaries, streamline your legislative tracking, and stay ahead with instant alerts on bill movements.

Furthermore, AI’s transformative role in campaign finance analysis cannot be overstated. AI can offer real-time updates and in-depth analysis of huge amounts of data – a level of insight previously unthinkable but now readily accessible.

Yet perhaps AI’s most significant application in our field is managing data from committee hearings and floor debates. AI technology allows instant access to searchable transcriptions, summaries, and specific video clips, making finding witness testimonies, opposition statements, and member questions far easier. When paired with real-time live video and transcription during the legislative session, this technology could alert you faster than a human could type—notifying you or your organization at the mention of anything you request.  We’ve already developed the prototype of this technology, and it is currently being used by our “super users”.

This immediate access to content, coupled with enhanced searchability and context, promises to streamline our work and significantly boost advocacy effectiveness. AI isn’t destined to replace the nuanced skills of political professionals; rather, it aims to enhance them. By automating routine tasks, we free ourselves to focus on strategy, relationship-building, and influence.

AI’s capacity to powerfully assist is only growing. Imagine being able to instantaneously query every time a member spoke about a proposed bill, to automatically check a bill for points of order, or even input a modification request and have an amendment drafted in seconds. These developments are all on the horizon at TXElects.

Whether AI gives you back 50% of your time for leisure or enables you to double the amount of work you can do, it’s here to assist in the government relations and public affairs world.

At TXElects, our mission is to ensure you’re always the smartest person in the room. Incorporating AI will make what was previously impossible a reality, saving time and enhancing strategic prowess.

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Houston Mayoral Runoff Election Turnout Analysis

DEC 8, 2023

By Jeff Blaylock – Founder & Senior Editor

Houston’s mayoral runoff, like all elections, will come down to turnout, but turnout variations may well point to a built-in advantage for one of the candidates.

Senator John Whitmire received 43.0% of the vote in the November 7 election to Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee’s 34.8% in Harris Co., which represented 98% of all votes cast in the mayoral election. His margin was 8.2% or just over 20K votes. They each won about the same number of precincts over the other, but turnout within those precincts made all the difference.

We looked at turnout at the precinct level from the November 7 election and conclude that Whitmire enjoyed a significant turnout advantage over Jackson Lee in that election.

Looking solely at Harris Co., and excluding precincts with fewer than 20 votes cast, voter turnout was 25.0% in precincts favoring Whitmire and 16.0% in precincts favoring Jackson Lee. That gap widens when we look solely at precincts where either Whitmire or Jackson Lee received at least 50% of the vote. Turnout was 30.8% in precincts where Whitmire captured a majority vote but only 17.1% in precincts where Jackson Lee won a majority.

Had voter turnout been equal and their relative vote percentages stayed the same, Jackson Lee would have finished first in Harris Co. with 41% of the vote to Whitmire’s 39%, a margin of around 6K votes.

Also interesting is the relative strength of all other candidates in these precincts. Had all the other candidates been a single candidate, that candidate would have finished with a higher vote share than Jackson Lee in precincts won outright by Whitmire (23.6%-16.9%) and where Whitmire was south of a majority but ahead of Jackson Lee (28.7%-27.9%).

In Jackson Lee’s strongest precincts, the opposite occurred: Whitmire finished ahead of the combined votes of everyone else. In precincts won outright by Jackson Lee, Whitmire received 17.1% of the vote compared to 10.8% for all other candidates. In precincts where Jackson Lee did not capture a majority but received more votes than Whitmire, he still eclipsed the other combined candidates (32.4%-26.0%).

Higher precinct turnout correlates with higher vote shares for Republican candidates generally. Whitmire and Jackson Lee are both Democrats in this non-partisan race. Still, it may well be Republican-leaning voters who decide it unless Jackson-Lee’s campaign can overcome her turnout disadvantage.

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The Unprecedented Influence of the Paxton Impeachment Vote in Republican Primaries

NOV. 29, 2023

Contested Republican primaries are nothing new. In 2022, 33 incumbent Republicans drew primary challengers. Aside from the relatively quiet 2020 primary, an average of 25 incumbent Republican legislators have faced contested primaries. With less than two weeks left until the filing deadline, at least 38 Republican incumbents have drawn at least one primary challenger.

Historically, primary challenges have not been motivated by singular events or votes. Battles between self-identified “true conservatives” and incumbents they called “RINOs” have characterized some of the more prominent primary challenges over the past decade and a half. However, this vague conflict was never a common denominator unifying the intraparty opposition.

This year feels different. The central conflict isn’t being defined by vague pronouncements over who is more conservative. Instead, it is largely being defined by a single vote: the impeachment of Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton. Nearly as many House Republicans (60) voted to impeach Paxton as Democrats (61). Four of the Republican aye votes are not seeking re-election as of this writing. Of the 56 who are seeking re-election, 33 (59%) have at least one announced or filed primary challenger. Of those, 10 have at least two primary challengers. I expect most of the other 23 will also draw at least one challenger before the filing period ends in two weeks.

As for the 21 Republicans seeking re-election who did not vote to impeach Paxton, only five (24%) have drawn primary challengers so far.

Not only are many challengers citing the Paxton vote as a reason to support their candidacy, but Paxton himself is getting involved in these races. He has endorsed at least 11 of the primary challengers of House Republicans who voted to impeach him. He has also endorsed several of the House Republicans who voted against impeachment.

It remains to be seen whether the challengers can marshal this early pro-Paxton momentum into strong campaign finance results, but it seems likely that past large donors to challengers endorsed by scorecard conservative groups would place bets on candidates endorsed by Paxton at the very least.

It also remains to be seen whether these challengers will be able to oust significantly more incumbents than in a typical primary election. Only twice since 1996 – 2012 and 2014 – have more than four Republican incumbents fallen in primary elections. None have fallen in the primary since 2018 (Runoffs are another matter.).

It further remains to be seen whether the Paxton impeachment issue plays any significant role in open-seat primaries. This seems less likely, but it something to watch as primary races heat up.

By Jeff Blaylock – Founder & Senior Editor

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Understanding the Constitutional Amendments

November 7th Ballot Propositions Overview

Understanding the Constitutional Amendments

Proposition 1 – HJR 126 HJR 126 by Rep. Burns seeks to constitutionally protect the right to engage in farming, ranching, and other agricultural practices on privately owned or leased property. It provides a framework for protecting these rights while allowing for necessary regulations to protect public health, safety, and natural resources. 

Proposition 2 – SJR 64 SJR 64 by Senator West seeks to allow local governments to provide property tax exemptions for real property used to operate child-care facilities. The resolution would enable local bodies to exempt at least 50 percent of the appraised value from ad valorem taxation. The rationale behind this proposition is likely to support and encourage the provision of child-care services.

Proposition 3 – HJR 132 H.J.R. 132 by Rep. Hefner seeks to involve the citizens of Texas directly in the decision-making process regarding the imposition of a wealth or net worth tax. By proposing a constitutional amendment, it aims to prohibit the legislature from imposing such a tax.

Proposition 4 – HJR 2 HJR 2 by Rep. Metcalf seeks to alleviate the burden of rising property taxes in Texas through expanding the appraisal limitation to non-homestead properties, increasing homestead exemptions, and ensuring that appropriations for property tax relief do not affect the constitutional spending limit. 

Proposition 5 – HJR 3 HJR 3 By Rep. Bonnen seeks to bolster the state’s higher education institutions to drive Texas’s economy and provide solutions for its burgeoning population and infrastructure needs. It proposes a strategic investment into the renamed Texas University Fund to ensure an educated workforce and support research-driven solutions. 

Proposition 6 – SJR 75 SJR 75 by Senator Perry seeks to tackle Texas’s water infrastructure issues by establishing the Texas Water Fund, which would facilitate the financing of water projects. The resolution aims for a sustainable and long-term solution to the state’s water challenges.

Proposition 7 – SJR 93 SJR 93 By Senator Schwertner S.J.R. 93 seeks to establish the Texas energy fund as a constitutional measure to enhance the reliability of the state’s electricity supply. This fund would provide financial support for the construction, maintenance, and modernization of electric generating facilities, ensuring a reliable power grid for Texas. 

Proposition 8 – HJR 125 HJR 125 By Rep Ashby aims to establish a broadband infrastructure fund to expand high-speed Internet access across Texas, addressing a critical infrastructure gap that affects millions of Texans. The amendment seeks to ensure the efficient and dedicated use of funds for enhancing connectivity.

Proposition 9 – HJR 2, HJR 2 by Rep Bonnen aims to provide a one-time cost-of-living adjustment to annuitants of the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, under strict financial conditions to ensure the fiscal stability of the TRS. 

Proposition 10 – SJR 87 SJR 87 By Senator Huffman seeks to alleviate the tax burden on manufacturers in the medical and biomedical sectors by exempting certain tangible personal property from ad valorem taxation. This measure is intended to enhance the stability and resilience of the Texas healthcare network and medical supply chain.

Proposition 11 – SJR 32 SJR 32 by Senator Blanco seeks to address the funding gap in El Paso County’s parks system by enabling conservation and reclamation districts within the county to issue bonds for the development and maintenance of recreational facilities. This measure aims to improve the quality of life for residents and contribute to the region’s economic vitality. 

Proposition 12 – HJR 134 HJR 134 by Rep. Bonnen seeks to fulfill the campaign promise of the current Treasurer of Galveston County by abolishing the office. The resolution outlines a process for transferring the Treasurer’s duties to another qualified individual or county officer, as determined by the Commissioners Court of Galveston County.

Proposition 13 – HJR 107 HRJ 107 by Rep. Price seeks to address the issue of mandatory retirement for state justices and judges by increasing the retirement age from 75 to 79. This change reflects modern life expectancies and allows experienced judges and justices to continue serving the state. The amendment also simplifies the provisions regarding retirement, removing the exception that currently allows certain judges to serve beyond the age of 75. 

Proposition 14 – SJR 74 SJR 74 by Senator Parker seeks to provide a reliable and dedicated source of funding for the acquisition and development of state parks in Texas. By creating the Centennial Parks Conservation Fund, the resolution aims to ensure the long-term sustainability and enjoyment of state parks for future generations. This fund would help Texas Parks and Wildlife make more permanent investments in state parks, reducing the risk of park closures due to the sale of leased land.

See the breakdown from the Texas Secretary of State here.

©2023 TEXAS ELECTION SOURCE LLC

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Special 8 Day Out Update

The special election for the Texas State House District 2, scheduled for November 2nd, is in the spotlight with the release of the latest 8-day-out campaign finance reports by the Texas Ethics Commission. These reports, covering the period from September 29th to October 28th, reveal the financial landscape of the race.

Jill Dutton, an administrative director from Ben Wheeler, emerges as the fundraising frontrunner with $235,000 in contributions. A substantial share of her support comes from Texans for Lawsuit Reform and the Associated Republicans of Texas, contributing $85,000 and $126,000, respectively, accounting for nearly 90% of her total contributions during this period. Adding to her campaign’s momentum, Dutton has launched an attack ad against her opponent Brent Money and secured an endorsement from former Governor Rick Perry on the 30th.

Brent Money, a Greenville attorney, has raised $59,000, with the Defend Texas Liberty PAC being a significant contributor, donating $35,000—59% of his total contributions for this period. However, donations from other expected conservative backers have been relatively modest. Heath Hyde, a Sulphur Springs attorney, holds the third spot in fundraising with $57,000 in contributions, with the Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND as his primary donor, contributing $30,000, which is 53% of his total contributions.

Hyde has overtaken Doug Roszhart, a retired Greenville engineer and Hunt County Republican chair, who has raised $26,000. Hyde’s expenditures stand at $43,000.Kristen Washington, the lone Democrat in the race, has received a modest $3,700 in contributions. When it comes to campaign spending, Dutton and Money lead the race, having expended $104,000 and $112,000, respectively. At this point, we expect a runoff between Dutton and Money.

©2023 TEXAS ELECTION SOURCE LLC

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Texas Election Source Product Re-launch: Bridging Political Data with Upcoming AI Capabilities

Texas Election Source Unveils Product Re-launch: Bridging Political Data with Upcoming AI Capabilities

[Austin, 10/31/23] – Celebrating a decade of distinguished service in the realm of Texas politics and campaign analysis, Texas Election Source proudly announces its enhanced re-launch. While artificial intelligence integration is on the horizon, the platform continues to remain a beacon for data-driven political insights.

By intertwining intricate campaign data with prospective AI capabilities, Texas Election Source is set to redefine the tools available to government relations professionals. This advancement ensures subscribers can seamlessly navigate campaign data.

With the campaign fervor building up, our team is ardently working on perfecting AI tools tailored for the impending Legislative Session, empowering our subscribers with campaign knowledge. For those with a passion for diving deep into the intricacies of Texas politics and seeking the best-in-class tools, Texas Election Source remains your trusted partner.

About Texas Election Source:

Launching in November 2013, Texas Election Source quickly rose to prominence as the gold standard for Texas political data and news insights, backed by a loyal subscriber base. We’re committed to providing sharp, data-informed perspectives on the dynamic landscape of Texas politics and campaigns. By constantly innovating in political data, we design state-of-the-art tools primed to maximize the efforts of government relations professionals. As campaign season begins, our subscribers can look forward to enhanced, transformative political tools, with the addition of AI-driven capabilities for the upcoming Legislative Session.

Press Contact:

Laura Carr

Head of Business Development

[email protected]

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HD 2 Special Election Update

Six candidates are vying in a special election to fill the unexpired term of former Rep. Bryan Slaton (R-Royse City).

As of Sept. 29, Ben Wheeler administrative director Jill Dutton ($142K) and Greenville attorney Brent Money ($129K) had out-raised the field, and they were also the top two spenders as of that date (Dutton $111K, Money $63K). Sulphur Springs attorney Heath Hyde was third in contributions ($52K) and fourth in expenditures ($33K), narrowly edged out by retired Greenville engineer and Hunt Co. Republican chair Doug Roszhart ($36K).

Money has the backing of Texas Right to Life PAC, True Texas Project, Texas Gun Owners of America, and several current and former lawmakers including former Sen. Don Huffines (R-Dallas) and Sen. Bob Hall (R-Edgewood). The Defend Texas Liberty PAC recently sent a mail piece to potential primary voters accusing Dutton of fundraising from donors to former Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke. Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) has also endorsed Money, who was a vocal critic of his impeachment.

Dutton has been endorsed by Associated Republicans of Texas PAC, Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC, and Texas Alliance for Life PAC. Hyde has been endorsed by Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND and Texas Parent PAC.

 The candidates’ 8-day-out campaign finance reports should provide more clarity on the race, including the level of financial support from the conservative groups endorsing Money. These reports, which disclose contributions received and expenditures made between Sept. 29 and Oct. 28, were due Monday and should be available online the next day.

We expect the race will go to a runoff, likely between Dutton and Money. Former Greenville council member Kristen Washington, the lone Democrat in the race, could conceivably edge out one of the Republicans to make the runoff. In the 2022 general election, O’Rourke received 21% of the vote head-to-head against Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in the district.

Slaton resigned in May ahead of a unanimous House vote to expel him, marking the first time a member had been expelled from the Legislature since 1927.

Texas Election Source Is Returning with New Partners

AUSTIN, Texas – [August 31, 2023] – Texas Election Source is returning under new ownership. Laura Carr and Eric Davis have partnered with Jeff Blaylock, Founder and original Publisher of Texas Election Source, to leverage the power of artificial intelligence in developing tools that will revolutionize the day-to-day activities of political professionals. Texas Election Sources team of AI engineers are currently developing new features that expand the scope of the original Texas Election Source. The Texas Election Source team will be reaching out directly to key former subscribers to establish direct lines of communication to gather feedback on the future direction of the company. The version one platform is projected to launch in October for users to subscribe.

Meet Laura Carr: Laura Carr brings a blend of Texas grit and D.C. finesse to her new role at Texas Election Source. Laura began her political career in Washington, D.C., working in various policy and communication roles for legislative offices in both the House and Senate on Capitol Hill. Laura later worked in fundraising at The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and No Labels—a bipartisan nonprofit dedicated to finding common-ground solutions. Laura returned to the Lone Star State, where she served in the Office of the Texas Governor, later making a notable impact as the Government Relations Director at The Brannan Firm—a prestigious firm ranked at the top of Capitol Inside’s Texas Lobby Power Rankings. Today, Laura serves as Policy Director specializing in technology policy in the Texas Senate. As Head of Business Development for Texas Election Source, Laura will be acting as a liaison between new and previous customers.

Meet Eric Davis: A seasoned visionary in the realm of go-to-market strategy. Eric Davis is renowned for his expertise in tech companies in Silicon Valley. Eric’s most distinguished accomplishment lies in his role at Prodigy Software, where he led revenue generation and masterminded the strategic blueprint from the company’s inception to its $100 million acquisition by Upstart Holdings. Beyond his tenure at Prodigy, Eric has continued to contribute to the tech landscape by actively investing in and advising numerous companies at the forefront of introducing new technology into the tech industry, including cutting-edge AI tech. Eric’s understanding of AI and the intricacies of go-to-market strategies brought him the opportunity to work within the underserved realm of Texas politics. As CEO, he is going to use his tech connections and understanding to create game-changing technology for Texas Election Source.

About Texas Election Source: Texas Election Source is a subscriber-supported software and news service that provides an authoritative, data-driven perspective on Texas politics and campaigns since November 2013. Texas Election Source offers one of the most accurate and comprehensive tools for understanding Texas elections, focusing on key races and the political climate, and has become a relied-upon resource for political professionals seeking unbiased insights. Texas Election Source maintains non-partisanship and independence from any candidate or interest group, empowering subscribers to make informed decisions in the political arena. Its new ownership is committed to ensuring its legacy as an unrivaled resource for understanding Texas politics.

For media inquiries and more information, please contact: Laura Carr – Head of Business Development Texas Election Source – [email protected]

©2023 Texas Election Source LLC

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Laura Carr

Laura Carr

Head of Business Development & Co-Owner

Laura Carr began her political career in Washington, D.C., working in various policy and communication roles for legislative offices in both the House and Senate on Capitol Hill. Laura later worked in fundraising at The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and No Labels—a bipartisan nonprofit dedicated to finding common-ground solutions.

Laura returned to the Lone Star State, where she served in the Office of the Texas Governor, later making a notable impact as the Government Relations Director at The Brannan Firm—a prestigious firm ranked at the top of Capitol Inside’s Texas Lobby Power Rankings.  

Laura earned her Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from the University of Alabama. Currently, Laura serves as Policy Director specializing in technology policy in the Texas Senate. As Head of Business Development for Texas Election Source, Laura acts as a liaison between new and previous customers.

Jeff Blaylock

Jeff Blaylock

Founder & Senior Editor

Jeff Blaylock offers more than 25 years of political analysis, campaign, government, and advocacy experience, Jeff is a noted expert on Texas elections and the legislative process. He served the Texas House of Representatives as a Chief Committee Clerk for the powerful State Affairs Committee and the Financial Institutions Committee. During his time in the Capitol, Jeff became a legislative process and rules expert. No point of order was ever sustained against the committees’ legislation under his leadership. Jeff served as a policy and budget analyst for the White House’s Office of Management and Budget and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. He served in various management roles in numerous political campaigns across the country.

He began offering his election insights and predictions to his public affairs clients in 2005. He published Texas Election Source for nearly a decade and returns now as Senior Editor. Jeff understands public policy and the ways issues can resonate in elections. As managing director at the respected public affairs firm Public Strategies (now Hill+Knowlton Strategies), he advised clients on legislative strategies, public affairs, strategic and crisis communication, and brand reputation.

Jeff earned a Bachelor’s degree in journalism with a political science minor from Texas Christian University and a Master’s in public policy from Georgetown University. Jeff is currently the VP of Client Services at Kith, a crisis management consulting firm.

Eric Davis

Eric Davis

CEO & Co-Owner

Eric Davis is a seasoned visionary in the realm of go-to-market strategy. Eric is renowned for his expertise in tech companies in Silicon Valley. His most distinguished accomplishment lies in his role at Prodigy Software, where he led revenue generation and masterminded the strategic blueprint from the company’s inception to its $100 million acquisition by Upstart Holdings.

Beyond his tenure at Prodigy, Eric has continued to contribute to the tech landscape by actively investing in and advising numerous companies at the forefront of introducing new technology into the tech industry, including cutting-edge AI tech. Eric’s understanding of AI and the intricacies of go-to-market strategies brought him the opportunity to work within the underserved realm of Texas politics. 

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