Jun 7, 2021 | Campaign News, House Race Analyses
Associated Republicans of Texas and the Hispanic Voter Network announced they were targeting several Democrat-held House seats “in an effort to expand the map for Republicans in the Texas House.” The six districts are listed below with the general election results:...
Nov 15, 2020 | Political Climate
Joe Biden beat President Trump by a little over 850K votes in the seven counties with at least 500K registered voters. That’s nearly double the 443K-vote margin Hillary Clinton had in those counties four years earlier and a little over 100K above Beto O’Rourke’s...
Nov 1, 2020 | House Race Analyses, Political Climate
Yesterday (Saturday), we posed two fundamental questions that will be answered Tuesday, or shortly thereafter. We gave our best guess on the first question, whether Joe Biden will become the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Texas since 1976 (No, but...
Oct 27, 2020 | breaking-news, Campaign Finance
The battle for the Texas House got expensive. Candidates in competitive seats collectively raised $39.3M during the past month, much of through in-kind contributions from a handful of sources. Republicans, bolstered by huge spending by Texans for Lawsuit Reform...
Oct 25, 2020 | Campaign News
Democratic challenger Joe Biden leads President Trump, 48%-45%, with 5% undecided, according to a new Dallas Morning News/Univ. of Texas-Tyler poll (PDF). Prior UT-Tyler polls have shown Trump leading by two in September, Biden by five in July and a tied race in...
Oct 18, 2020 | Political Climate
Our latest model run moves the presidential race in Texas to Toss Up and projects a narrow Democratic majority in the Texas House when the Legislature convenes in January. Another four Republican-held House seats are within 2 percentage points of potentially adding to...
Sep 13, 2020 | House Race Analyses
We conclude our analysis of potentially competitive Texas House districts with a discussion of South and West Texas. To skip to the punchline, we do not expect any of the seats discussed here to flip. What’s more interesting here is the potential long-term shifts in...
Jul 19, 2020 | Campaign News
Texas Election Source has updated 27 race ratings based on the latest polling, July campaign finance reports and primary runoff results. Twenty of those races moved one column toward the Democrats’ advantage. Our complete ratings are located here. Thirteen...
Jul 11, 2019 | Campaign News
Poteet real estate broker and State Republican Executive Committee member Marian Knowlton established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of Rep. Ryan Guillen (D-Rio Grande City). Knowlton is also the chair of the Atascosa Co. Republican Party. She would be...
Feb 28, 2018 | Campaign News
Early voting continues through Friday. As of yesterday, turnout in the 15 counties with the most registered voters crept past 5%. Democratic primary turnout is up 92% compared to the first eight days of 2014, while Republican primary turnout is up 15% over four years...
Feb 27, 2018 | Campaign Finance
After 5 p.m. today, the Texas Ethics Commission posted totals for the 8-day-out reports candidates filed on Monday. The actual reports are generally not yet available, but we were able to determine many candidates’ largest donors between January 26 and February 24. We...
Feb 6, 2018 | Campaign Finance
State candidates with primary opponents were required to file 30-day-out campaign finance reports on Monday. These are normally accessible online early the next morning, but today they were not available until late afternoon. We are in the process of going through the...
