Nov 5, 2018 | Federal Race Analyses, House Race Analyses, Political Climate, Senate Race Analyses
This is the second of two analyses that will attempt to prognosticate Tuesday’s general election. Here we focus on individual races. Our previous analysis examined the state’s political climate entering the election. Borrowing from Monty Python, “That’s no ordinary...
Nov 1, 2018 | Campaign Finance
“Late-train” money is flowing into close Congressional races but largely ignoring state races as the election campaign nears its end. Part of this disparity is due to the dates covered. Congressional candidates began disclosing contributions in “24-hour” reports on...
Oct 30, 2018 | Campaign Finance
Opposed state and legislative candidates were required to file 8-day-out campaign finance reports yesterday (Monday). These reports include contributions received and expenditures made between September 28 and October 27. We are in the process of updating our Crib...
Oct 3, 2018 | Political Climate
Last week we explored the shift in straight-party voting advantage in Republican-held districts toward the Democrats. Today we explore each party’s roles in those shifts. Between 2012 and 2016, Democrats either cut into the Republican straight-party advantage or...
Oct 1, 2018 | Ads, Campaign News
GOV: The campaign of Gov. Greg Abbott (R) released a two-minute ad, “Hope: Julie’s Story,” telling the story of a mother whose son was paralyzed in the Sutherland Springs mass shooting. LTGOV: The campaign of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) released a new ad focused on...
Sep 27, 2018 | Political Climate
We continue our look at districts potentially in play in November with our first statewide exploration of straight-party voting trends in Republican-held districts. Prior analyses have looked at districts that are bluer than the state as a whole, districts won by...
Sep 10, 2018 | House Race Analyses, Political Climate, Senate Race Analyses
The general election is eight weeks away, and early voting begins six weeks from today. Traditionally, we have rated contested elections on a 5-star scale, which one star indicating a very low-interest race with no chance of flipping and five stars indicating a...
Aug 19, 2018 | Campaign News
Filing Deadlines: Monday is the deadline for write-in candidates to file for a place on the general election ballot. It is also the deadline for municipal, school board and other local candidates to file for offices on the general election ballot. HD109 open: Glenn...
Jul 17, 2018 | Campaign Finance
State candidates and officeholders were required to file their July semiannual campaign finance reports yesterday (Monday). These reports include contributions received and expenditures made between the last date covered by a report and June 30. The reporting period...
Jun 24, 2018 | Campaign News
SD19 special: San Antonio attorney and longtime Democratic activist Charlie Urbina Jones has filed for the race, becoming the sixth official candidate. San Antonio financial analyst Tony Valdivia established a campaign committee and updated his web site to run for the...
Jun 22, 2018 | Campaign News
Filing Deadline: Today was the deadline for independent candidates for state and federal offices to file their applications and signatures with the Secretary of State. Nearly 70 candidates filed declarations of intent by the December 2017 deadline. Historically, very...
Jun 6, 2018 | Political Climate
Today we begin our exploration of districts that may be in play in the general election by examining a metric we call “relative performance factors,” which measure the partisan lean of a district relative to the state. Two dozen Texas congressional and...
