Nov 7, 2018 | Election Night Returns
We’re still waiting on the last few boxes, mostly located in the big urban counties, to be reported. As of 3:45 a.m. CST, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leads U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, 51%-48%, with 98% of precincts reporting. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads former Dallas Co....
Nov 5, 2018 | Federal Race Analyses, House Race Analyses, Political Climate, Senate Race Analyses
This is the second of two analyses that will attempt to prognosticate Tuesday’s general election. Here we focus on individual races. Our previous analysis examined the state’s political climate entering the election. Borrowing from Monty Python, “That’s no ordinary...
Nov 1, 2018 | Campaign Finance
“Late-train” money is flowing into close Congressional races but largely ignoring state races as the election campaign nears its end. Part of this disparity is due to the dates covered. Congressional candidates began disclosing contributions in “24-hour” reports on...
Oct 30, 2018 | Campaign Finance
Opposed state and legislative candidates were required to file 8-day-out campaign finance reports yesterday (Monday). These reports include contributions received and expenditures made between September 28 and October 27. We are in the process of updating our Crib...
Oct 17, 2018 | Political Climate
Back in July, as part of our series of analyses identifying districts potentially in play, we found that a challenging party’s candidate raised at least half as much as the incumbent party’s candidate in 90% of the Texas legislative and congressional seats that were...
Oct 15, 2018 | Campaign News
President Trump will hold a rally on October 22, the first day of early voting, at NRG Arena in Houston. SEN: A new poll conducted by WPAi (PDF) for Club for Growth Action shows U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 52%-43%, with...
Oct 10, 2018 | Campaign Finance
Note: This report has been updated since we issued our Breaking News alert. State, legislative and local (where required) candidates facing general election opponents were required to file 30-day-out campaign finance reports yesterday. Most of those have become...
Oct 3, 2018 | Political Climate
Last week we explored the shift in straight-party voting advantage in Republican-held districts toward the Democrats. Today we explore each party’s roles in those shifts. Between 2012 and 2016, Democrats either cut into the Republican straight-party advantage or...
Sep 27, 2018 | Political Climate
We continue our look at districts potentially in play in November with our first statewide exploration of straight-party voting trends in Republican-held districts. Prior analyses have looked at districts that are bluer than the state as a whole, districts won by...
Sep 10, 2018 | House Race Analyses, Political Climate, Senate Race Analyses
The general election is eight weeks away, and early voting begins six weeks from today. Traditionally, we have rated contested elections on a 5-star scale, which one star indicating a very low-interest race with no chance of flipping and five stars indicating a...
Aug 19, 2018 | Campaign News
Filing Deadlines: Monday is the deadline for write-in candidates to file for a place on the general election ballot. It is also the deadline for municipal, school board and other local candidates to file for offices on the general election ballot. HD109 open: Glenn...
Aug 15, 2018 | Campaign News
SD6 “open”: The word “intent” appears to be keeping Gov. Greg Abbott (R) from ordering a special election to fill what will be the unexpired term of Sen. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston), the presumptive new member of Congress from CD29. Last month, Garcia submitted a letter...
